cbmclean

Griteater got a nice shout out in the MA forum for his EPS animation find.

3 minutes ago, griteater said:

EPS for day 10-15 following our storm

boo, hiss

4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

People already hanging off the edge of the cliff with one hand on November 26.  I could see that maybe, if we're staring down a torch at the end of December after a mild month.  But on 11/26????!!  That's definitely funny.

I agree it's a bit premature.  But I can understand the psychology of it.  For some it is a lot less painful to expect the worse and maybe be pleasantly surprised.

11 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Hahahaha

?

1 hour ago, paulythegun said:

Let's check in on how the GFS operational models are handling the long ra.....

Oh

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 

Well, if you inverted one of them, they would be kind of similar. 

I would be tempted to discard the FV out of hand.  I think we know that that sort of coast-to-coast cold anomaly is pretty much physically impossible.  You can be coast-to-coast warm, but not cold.

9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Depends on the orientation/location/depth of the trough. If the trough were deeper and centered more over the GOA, it would be quite a warmer look up there. Also while h5 heights do correlate fairly well to temps at lower levels in the atmosphere, it doesn't give the whole picture. Look at 850 and surface as well. Another thing- that is a panel for a day 15 ens mean, so its pretty smoothed/low resolution.

I appreciate your taking the time to pass along some knowledge.

22 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

In a nutshell, the 500 mb level is higher in the atmosphere when the air beneath is it warmer- warm air is less dense- takes up more volume. The opposite is true when the air is colder- its more dense, or compacted, so the 500 mb height is lower in the atmosphere. You can read 500 mb height anomalies sort of like a topo map.

C.A.P.E

Thank you for this.

This is the exact understanding that I had from listening other's talk on here and reading a bit of simple stuff online.

However, from the EPS 360 hr map that was posted above the below normal 500 dm anomalies stretched all the way from Alaska through the NWT/Nunavut, down through Ontario into the Eastern US.  So by my understanding, below normal 500 dm heights should equate to BN temps in all of those areas.  So BN heights in northern Canada should equal BN temps there according to the simplified model that I have in my head.  I would expect if Canada was being flooded with mild Pacific air i would see red anomalies up there. 

Can you explain where I am going off the track?

5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I always want to see BN heights and troughing centered in the East. Its pretty much the first thing I check. The problem with BN heights in Alaska is that we typically get a flow off the Pacific which normally doesn't cut it this early in the season temp wise. Later in the season we can overcome it but now not so much. 

Anyone on here interested in briefly explaining the physical mechanism by which height anomalies and temp anomalies are associated?  It is something which has troubled me for years.  Clearly heights and temperatures are correlated.  AN heights tend to be associated with AN temps and vice versa. 

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Really down playing the EPO ridge and breaking it down quicker then what we have seen setting up on prior runs. Probably not worth worrying about too much unless we see future runs start heading in this direction as well because it is just as likely to be an off run.

Visitor from the SE forum here.  I am obviously uneducated, but I was curious, even with the BN heights in Alaska, isn't it also showing forecasting BN heights in the East.  And isn't that a good thing?

4 hours ago, Poimen said:

Regardless if we get something in the medium range, the big positive in my mind is that we are starting this winter with some robust blocking. I think that’s a good signal for the winter as a whole. 

My feelings exactly.

16 hours ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

I can't ever recall a SER with a -NAO. So, if we do have a lasting -NAO you can count that out. Also storms don't seem to trend NW at the last minute with a -NAO. Bottom line,... I'll take my chances being in the bull's eye 5 days out, if the indices are favorable. 

Well, it is important to differentiate.  We don't have a -NAO.  We have some forecasts which imply we might have a -NAO in the future, which is a very different thing. 

Overall, my point is that I think we are justified in being cautiously optimistic, which I think most on here would probably agree with. 

18 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

Totally agree.  Having all the indices lined up 2-4 weeks out is like being in the bullseye of a southeast blizzard 5 days out.  

TW

Personally, my expectations are well in check but it still makes me happier than if the indices were all pointing in the opposite direction, which as we all know happens all too frequently. 

I wouldn't say its equivalent to being in the bullseye 5 days out.  If you are in the bullseye 5 days out, you KNOW that you are doomed and that the storm will end up passing 200 miles to your northwest.

With good index forecasts, you can reasonably conclude that you have a smaller than average chance of a patented December SER setting up shop. Certainly not a zero chance, but smaller than average.

On the other hand, when reality verifies bad after promising forecasts, I sometimes find it even more frustrating than when you can see the fail coming from a mile away.  For example, last February stung extra bad after the promising MJO forecasts.

2 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

Yeah, we had coves freeze over on Lake Norman last year.

Ponds frozen over here in Wilson as well, and we are well into the coastal plain.  Heck I saw pics of some ice on the edges of the sounds.  Truly a cold snap to remember.  I expect that that may be the best cold snap I see in my lifetime.

12 minutes ago, JoshM said:

So close, yet so far away.

I take it as a positive that this kind of stuff is showing up in mid-November instead of us having to hang our hopes on this in January.

Oh, and anyone notice that little gem in the far SE corner of the map?

3 hours ago, downeastnc said:

At PGV clouds moved in holding temps to a low of 30 before a bounce back to 33/34 by dawn.....

Similar must have happened to Wilson.  Tomatoes and peppers made it through the night.  They are close to the house so they probably also benefit from a degree or two of heating from the brick foundation radiating at night.

12 hours ago, griteater said:

I realized this morning that I screwed up and forgot to include the snowfall map in the outlook....probably best that I did forget it for this subforum 

Maybe the MA peeps can recover from last years' dud.  This looks right up their alley.

Only got down to 33 F on the PWS.  Close but no cigar.  Still, not complaining too much after escaping the six-week-long ridge.

6 hours ago, scwxguy said:

They've been waiting for cooler temperatures while I have felt an urgency to get out in the pool and beach as much as possible before the heat and humidity dissipates. I love the heat and humidity.

More proof of the variability of the human condition

For me personally, I can handle hot humid days pretty well, even working outside.  But I have to have a cool dry place to go to at the end of the day, especially to sleep at night.  Actually since AC is so widespread down here I bet our northern brethren may be tougher in that regard than us.  I know that when I go visit my wife's extended family in Western PA I am always terrified of the possibility of a warm spell, because no one has A/C, and sleeping upstairs can be suffocating.

15 hours ago, FallsLake said:

Here's an article posted on Wral:

https://www.wral.com/the-national-weather-service-is-predicting-a-mild-winter-for-most-of-the-u-s-/17931726/

They compare this upcoming year to 2014/15. February 2015 saved us to allow most to have a good/average winter.

https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter/database

 

But there is a wild card with the solar minimum. This year may be different, hopefully colder earlier in the season.   

 

For some reason I don't really remember much about 2014 - 2015.  May have something to do with having a <1 year old baby at the time.  I do seem to remember a nice -EPO outbreak, maybe in February, which got me down to +3.9 F with a bit of snow cover, which was my PWS record until this past January's miracle on ice.

I don't remember anything about the "exceptionally cold" November, though.

You know what my first goal for this winter is: NOT to have one of the three months be historically warm.  We've had three straight years if that crap (December 15, Feb 17, Feb 18).

15 hours ago, Poimen said:

It's Cohen's forecast via the National Science Foundation. He did say it was preliminary and would issue a final call in early November. 

Well, I hope that he is just as right about this, as he was about a couple of recent years which had high Siberian snow cover in October.

4 hours ago, Poimen said:

A very warm winter forecast from NSF today, too, for the vast majority of the US. But that forecast seems heavily dependent on Siberian snow cover. 

Who is the NSF?

I am intrigued about the Siberian snow cover thing.  Seems like Dr. Cohen's theory has taken a beating the last few years.

9 hours ago, SnowNiner said:

I thought for good blocking Grit, we would want to stay -10  to -20? Somewhere thereabouts. Fly in the ointment? 

Generally I'm going with the persistence model until it breaks.  Last few years, we haven't had any NA blocking at all.  Cold came from west coast ridging and the -EPO.  Had a healthy dose of WAR too.  My preliminary bet is we generally get more of the same this year.    I'm fine with that though if we can just get the STJ rolling.  If Nino can at least give us that, we should do just fine. 

Didn't we have a ginormous historic NA block this past March?

8 hours ago, WarmNose said:

Starting to see some blue anomolies creep in just outside of hr200..that makes me sad. I would love to keep this heat for another 30-40 days. The golfball doesn’t fly in the cold! 

If I had the power to ban people...:D

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

If the wind is onshore, Tampa's high temperatures are capped. As such, the mean temperature is lower than it would otherwise be. Throughout late September, the prevalent wind directions were either east or northeast, avoiding the cooling sea breeze. That's what allowed Tampa to break its September mark by more than 2° (while some inland areas beat their existing mark by 0.5° to 1.0°.

Today was another such case with no sea breeze. The temperature topped out at 96°, which surpassed the old October mark of 95°, which was set on October 9, 1941.

The prevalent wind direction from the daily climate report released a short time ago:

WIND (MPH)
  RESULTANT WIND SPEED   6   RESULTANT WIND DIRECTION  NE (50)
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    10   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION    NE (60)
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    15   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION    NE (50)
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED     6.4

 

Thanks, Don.