cbmclean

If nothing else, one positive to take from this year is that we had what appeared to be an impactful trip through the cold phases and then it looks like it's going to zip through the crap phases at a decent clip. It had every excuse to blow up in phase 6; it's a Nina February after all. And if we recall, that's exactly what the GEFS was predicting not long ago, and it probably wasn't a coincidence that the GEFS was also predicting a +100000 dm SER that had Chuck drooling. I don't think this could have happened in 2022, or even last year.

I'm glad you said that, as I was starting to think there was a rip in the space-time continuum as Daniel Boone replied to your post before you made it.

It takes all kinds.

Nah, this is the league setting up an epic 2nd half comeback capped by Travis Kelce catching the winning TD and running all the way up to the press box to propose to Taylor.

If I was an Eagles fan, I'd be nervous right now. This is the equivalent of a "mint" -NAO/AO/-EPO/+PNA pattern at 240 hrs.

Weak OPI call.

The downside is if the pattern under performs, there will be riots.

You get 2" of complementary snow

Pretty up top, but I want to see that SER beat down.

This is the PSU Pattern. For every inch of snow you guys get during it, he gets a 10% cut.

Wait, what? Wasn't the GEFS confidently showing a +600000 dm SER until less than a week ago? Chuck may have posted about it once or twice. ETA: And also missing the -EPO pattern?

The Wire was a good show.

Ji pays out at 1:1000,

This has been an odd year, BAM and Eric Webb have often been on the cold hype train; while JB has been a downer. Next we'll see dogs and cats living together; mass hysteria!!

The 2/13 wave is of little interest to me at this point but I am intrigued by some of the looks showing up after that. It takes a lot to get good stuff east of RDU in late Feb especially in the warmer base state, but I got a solid 2 - 3" back in late Feb 2020, which was a miserable +++AO torch year overall.

Starting to see some comparisons to the Feb 2018 SSWE which apparently was rather sudden and unexpected. At this point though, do we really want a SSWE? Seems like things are coming together nicely with a split PV with a piece trapped on our side. SSWE's are like throwing a grenade in the pattern and hoping for the best.

The prognosticated pattern improvement, if it verifies, seems to be setting up about 2 weeks too late for legitimate hopes for RDU east. That said some pretty anomalous solutions starting to show up on some guidance, so I'll stay interested for a while yet

NC climate sites summary from January from the NWS shows Raleigh only -3.1 F for the month while Gboro was -4.9 and Fayetteville was -5.1. RDU was only 0.2 colder than Fay overall and actually 0.6 warmer for mean minimum.

But the way in which a -PDO screws with a nino is by favoring + height anomalies in east, counteracting the nino propensity to drive a trough their, right?

I could have sworn SER made some appearances last year in between Pac Puke episodes. I guess to clarify when I speak of the "SER" I am including the -PDO propensity for heights to spike to the North Pole in front of every short wave. Maybe that is a different animal from a stable bermuda ridge.

The SER definitely made multiple appearances last year. It and Pack Puke basically took turns crushing our dreams

Yes I was aware of the mercurial nature of SPV collapses (aka SSW events), just not as familiar with splits.

Then sign me up for splitsville!

What, if anything, are the potential implications for an SPV split in terms of sensible weather? I'm not really familiar with split PVs.

So does a split stratospheric PV mean anything for the lower troposphere?