cbmclean

@brooklynwx99 You mentioned the solstice window. I'm sure this will lock in, right

As a side note, if one looks closely at the ensemble MJO forecasts, it seems like there are often one or two members that go backwards. I remember reading somewhere that NWP models often not infrequently predict the MJO to go backward, but it almost never happens. That goes into the "I wonder why they can't fix that" file.

So you're going to make everyone go look,huh?

The one that verifies will be the one that loops backwards through 4 -5 -6 again...

The West Pac warm pool is in the equatorial region east of Indonesia. It is potentially connected to the MJO. Specifically, the expansion of the warm pool over the last decade or so is thought by some to be a driving force in the strong bias to the "bad" phases of the MJO (i.e. 4-6) observed in that time frame. Meanwhile the PDO is a pattern of observed temp anomalies in the North Pacific. As to how/if they are connected, my blanket assumption in weather is that everything is connected to everything. In any event both conditions appear to be positively correlated to greater prevalence and intensity of southeast ridges and hence east coast snow weenie tears.

So you don't want a high of 3.06 °F near DC and 2.98 °F near Baltimore?

I'm still not ready for a world where Ji is the one trying to keep everybody optimistic...

My homeland (eastern NC) has already passed that point I think.

Did BAMWx decide they were going to see if it might be fun to be relentless cold-hypers instead of relentless warm-hypers? I would have stuck with the warm hype; there's more future in it

To clarify I fully agree with the assessment. I just doubt that anyone who hasn't already been convinced is ever going to be.

Is this some sort of unexpected development?

Maestro, you're not obsessively monitoring the status of the West Pac warm pool, hoping against hope for any sign of its weakening from it's current "King Kong on a rampage through New York" strength, are you?

Are you honestly annoyed/surprised that a operational storm at 342 hours, disappeared the next run?

IF we get cold again (always a big if) it will almost certainly be -EPO driven, so cold dry should be the expectation.

Even RDU got down to 21 last night. The volcano must have gone dormant for the night.

Not sure how workable that is. Way too much NPac troughing. Yeah, there is an eastern trough but at best we're left with "domestic" cold, and that doesn't work anymore so it seems.

If I understand correctly, this little cold spell was a bit of a surprise on in terms of 3/4 week modeling as things looked bad for early December before 11/15 or so. But once it came into 384 range it was pretty stable, which is kind of unusual for modelled cold these days...

That's surprisingly variable given the look on the mean...

Here's the H500 for that time: deep NPac trough. Question for the board, does this count as "Pac Puke

Hey, I'm normal!

CAPE has had all he can stand and he can't stands no more

It's Met winter.

"buh dup CHHHH"

"Accuracy" is a surprisingly nebulous concept for something as complex as NWP, as it varies widely based on location, season and exactly what parameter you are talking about (H500, qpf etc). That said the Icon has traditionally been considered one of the JV models but I have no idea if that is still true or not.

The "T" in the Snowfall column stands for "tons" right?