jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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I have about 2.5”. Temp still stuck at 30-31 which I’m thinking is about as high as I’ll get.
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If we can get snow on snow to build up a snowpack it would be great. Hopefully the late NW trends can benefit for a change.
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It’s also lighter rain so it’s accreting more efficiently. Heavier rain would run off.
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Yep. Honestly it may not get any higher at all and we’re accreting. Models have temps dropping starting around 1pm.
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Even Long Beach on the extreme S Shore of Nassau still at 32 so no melting and maybe some accreting. We have a few hours before the crash begins.
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Usually the story with models-underestimate mid level warmth and overestimate surface warmth. On a NE wind we won’t budge. The freezing rain releases some warmth into the air through the droplets freezing but without WAA at the surface we’d just get up to 33. Roads later will be awful.
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Latest HRRR doesn’t really get NW Suffolk, N Nassau into the city above freezing. May touch 33 very briefly. By 3-4pm temps start crashing behind the front and maybe a brief flip back to snow.
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If we keep NE wind we won’t rise much if at all. Seems to be a coastal front near the twin forks where temps are in the upper 30s, let’s see if that can make headway west.
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Right-some sleet and rain at 33-34 will just mean it all hardens into cement later today. I doubt we lose much unless it gets to like 37-38 which I doubt.
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I highly doubt it. HRRR has freezing rain for a while here but at 32 if it’s heavy a lot would just run off. We have that issue with the easterly wind we normally have but it may just get to 33-34 which would melt off very little.
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Might not be the worst thing to preserve the snow for some sleet/rain to freeze into it later. And yes roads will likely be worse later with a crash freeze into the teens.
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The late amped trends may be helpful this time. Need to see the trough deepen and S/W amplify but thankfully that’s a trend we almost always see. Question is if it’ll be enough.
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SE Suffolk might be freezing rain now based on CC. Nasty.
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Mix is just south of the LIE and probably hits as the snow slackens off.
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Wow, nice rates and big flakes which should accumulate fast.
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Increasing rates here. CC shows it mixing as the burst ends. Maybe the heavier precip can stay snow and lighter stuff will be the mix.
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The proper way is on a snow board every 6 hours but the 3.1 sounds like the more correct measurement.
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Should be a nice burst for the island coming through, CC shows that as snow and the mix line gets pushed south offshore a little as it gets heavy.
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The heavier precip might push the sleet south temporarily. It shows sleet in SW Suffolk and part of Nassau but near JFK it’s still snow.
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The heavier echos might not be snow. CC shows that it might be sleet.
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HRRR shows another 1-2” or so especially east of the city so maybe the warm air can be held off. That would get most over 3”.
