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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    More often than not these are overhyped wind wise but we don’t have much of an inversion this time to stop the winds from making it to the surface. The low isn’t very consolidated when it gets here which might be our saving grace this time of anything. If there’s some double low structure, much of the high wind might be kept offshore or be brief. But instead that might increase the heavy rains.
  2. jm1220
    Thank goodness. We’d be looking at major flooding area wide at the beaches/back bays at worse timing. Might still be a bad flood event regardless.
  3. jm1220
    Tons of moisture coming in with this one-plenty from the Gulf and enhanced from the Nino Pacific. I do think some will get slammed: 3-5” if not more for someone. The heaviest rain should be near the low track, strong winds east.
  4. jm1220
    Thankfully we’re not at new moon, otherwise we’d have big problems. Even without that we’re probably in for major beach erosion. Edit-NWS calling for moderate to major flooding at Point Lookout, Freeport and Lindenhurst.
  5. jm1220
    Yep, not good news in terms of wind here with the last minute west trends. It’ll diminish the rain threat here, but places that upslope on SE winds will probably get 3-5”.
  6. jm1220
    Every other model is way further west with the heavy rain but even the 1-2" the other models have with the strong winds will cause issues.
  7. jm1220
    If the low goes well west of us we won't see heavy training rain like we saw last time. We'll have heavy rain bands to a dryslot while the steadier rain goes near the low track. This isn't tropical and Ida also didn't track well west of NYC.
  8. jm1220
    What's interesting with this NAM run (I know, NAM) is that the N stream follow up wave closes off at hr84 over WV. If that was to stay closed off and roll south of us, that's the one way we can see a possibly snowy outcome. Otherwise it would probably be just some rain/snow squalls. I'm more concerned about winds here and near the coast if the track is through central PA as most models have now and it's a strong 980mb type system. Doesn't look like really any inversion to stop the winds transferring to the ground and we'll have heavy rain bands to help as well. If the low is closer to the coast there'll be more rain but the big winds stay offshore.
  9. jm1220
    Doesn’t seem like much of an inversion this time so it might be legit. But usually these are a nowcast situation. And won’t take much wind to cause tree damage because of saturated ground.
  10. jm1220
    Well has he really been wrong? Agenda or not we know how things turned out.
  11. jm1220
    SE wind really brings the moisture. Could be flooding issues where SE upslope wrings it out-notice again SE Catskills, Poconos.
  12. jm1220
    I would think just inland and where elevations get hilly would be favored for heavy rain in this event. Models are hitting the upslope aspects of a strong SE flow hard-notice the rain maxes in the Berkshires, E Catskills, Poconos etc.
  13. jm1220
    Might be bogus but 0z GFS does get some good SE wind for the NJ shore and LI, would likely be some 50-60mph gusts. Temps spiking ahead of the low would help mix them down, and as we all see the low is quite strong. The strong SE flow would also help an upslope component to enhance the rain for inland areas. But hopefully the fast movement and vertical stacking keep this a more 1-2" rain event vs firehose deluge like Sunday. Unless the northern stream low can pinch off south of us after the main low passes I wouldn't expect more than snow showers, but it would add a wintry appeal at least.
  14. jm1220
    Down to 27 here.
  15. jm1220
    Let the praying start now.
  16. jm1220
    Queens near Douglaston/Bayside is also a lot colder pretty often vs the more built up areas and averages more snow. If there’s any place in the city I’d want to live for a slightly better shot at more wintry precip it’d be there, or northern Bronx.
  17. jm1220
    Pretty cold morning. Down to 24.
  18. jm1220
    18z GFS shows what I mean by maxing out/occluding early. The low becomes vertically stacked over the Carolinas and even though we get a decent 1-2" type rain it's nothing like the 5" deluge on the GGEM. We still do get gusty SE winds on the coast as modeled but if the low starts weakening as it's vertically stacked those winds would likely diminish. At least this is the outcome I'm hoping for if we need to put up with this storm.
  19. jm1220
    As the air gets warmer it holds more moisture=more extreme rain events. We also have methods to evaluate ice cores and other means to evaluate the climate from much longer ago.
  20. jm1220
    I think our possible way out of another deluge is it bombs and occludes in the South early which removes much of the large scale lift and WAA when it gets here. But if it’s being lifted north and phasing later, it’ll still be strengthening as it arrives. Not good when even the “dry” models have 2-3” still. Tons of moisture available since this is a southern stream Nino fueled storm.
  21. jm1220
    If we get slammed again on Mon after 4-5” on Sun IMBY, we’d have to be getting close to a record wet December.
  22. jm1220
    Another big rainfall possible with the Mon storm. Euro and GGEM have areas over 4” from the storm. Tremendous Nino-enhanced moisture feed being tapped but again I wonder if it’ll be occluded if it strengthens so far south of us which would likely promote a dry slot.
  23. jm1220
    If it's that strong that far south, it probably occludes before getting here. Would be a lot of rain possibly but also quick dry slot if it's occluded. Wind still would be an issue but it underperformed on Sunday.
  24. jm1220
    Was just in that area. It’s still partly closed in the right lanes.
  25. jm1220
    Wind east of the front, rain west. IMBY over 3.5". Dumping
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