jm1220

Forky’s absolutely right-we start off at a disadvantage near the city when we have a western trough that’ll want to kick up a SE ridge for any storm. We need the blocking to happen or we’re cooked with any stronger storm.

In a Strong El Niño, the storms available shouldn’t be a problem. It’s timing them with the right preceding conditions.

Right, if we have a strong storm coming up the coast and there’s a mechanism to provide cold air and overrunning like a big high, it’ll be a snowy outcome somewhere for sure. We just need something to force it on a more NE vs N track, or force it E before we start changing to rain.

It’s a threat in the board-saying again. But I’d rather be on the northern edge of the snow hoping for a north trend to get in the game vs right on the R/S line at this point. We’ve seen over and over what normally happens with these as get closer to game time. I’d say we need the 1/4 event to be stronger so it can form a 50/50 and block the 1/7 event from trying to cut or hug the coast. Any stronger storm without a block to force it south will try to cut north and pump the SE ridge ahead of it.

There's a threat on the board. That's all anyone should be thinking about.

Yup. Doesn’t do me any good to see 2-4” snow that’s washed away 6 hours later.

Pretty sure I notice some plants waking back up. Last “winter” we had flowers blooming in early February. It’s just nuts.

That was an amazing storm in Long Beach where I lived at the time. Absolutely dumping snow and thunder. And the rain snow line stayed east of me when it was expected to make it into the city. The low made a last second tick east which kept the city and W LI in it for 12”+. Went from that to all rain within maybe 20 miles. Same places made up for it though in the 3/5/01 storm that for the city was a disaster.

Want the trough axis further east for us to really be in the game. Heights are higher near Greenland but no stout block that would force a southern track. That to me says cutters/maybe SWFE that would be good for New England/I-90.

Bluewave can be plenty bullish on snow when the right pattern comes around. But I remember leading up to the Jan 22 blizzard that he and Don S were against a big impact for NYC because of the +AO (with stats to prove it) and they were right.

I'm frustrated too. It sucks seeing a Seattle like foggy/washout 5 day stretch here right before New Years, sitting on 5 flurries for the winter. But especially in strong Ninos it can turn around and we can have a half decent season overall like in 15-16. If we do it'll likely be based on 1 or 2 big storms since Nino also favors our biggest all time blizzards. And we'll all be way happier lol. But we also know based on just common sense and history that what we enjoyed from 2000-2018 will turn around. If we're in a long term -PDO/La Nina state now, that's one huge strike right there.

The way in which he explains his reasoning is very easy to understand and follow as well. He definitely shows his work in terms of how the marine heatwaves correlating to various bad MJO regions have caused this background Nina state to persist for years. He's right up with any poster in showing stats. He said this winter would likely have competing Nina/Nino influences because of those warm SSTs remaining in the W Pac plus east of Japan. The pattern coming up toward mid month looks very much like La Nina with cold dumping out west which promotes cutters. Hopefully since the MJO phases are progressing along that pattern won't last and that influence will switch by late month which is when typically our best winter is during El Nino. Plenty of posters I respect don't release winter outlooks. Don S doesn't release a winter outlook anymore (that I saw), he doesn't deserve as much respect? But it's nothing against those who do and I definitely respect the tremendous amount of work/study that goes into them. Honestly to me with these competing influences that are apparent it's becoming more of a crap shoot. I and most thought 20-21 would be a lousy winter here and it turned out very good. From what I remember most thought 18-19 and 19-20 would be very good winters and both sucked. It's also very hard particularly to forecast for NYC because we're the transition area between miller A type storms that are frequent in El Nino and hit the Mid-Atlantic, with more coastal, miller B-type storms that hit SNE/Long Island, and of course the usual I-95 rain/snow line storms-a tick SE and the city gets nailed too, or it goes to garbage from a tiny shift NW. I respect anyone who puts their name/rep on the line to try figuring out this stuff lol.

Noticed some moths flying around this afternoon.

I’d prepare to be disappointed in that too (hope for cooler summers).

I’ll take a stretch of below freezing NIGHTS at this point, forget days to kill off the bugs I still see everywhere. Earthworms everywhere too after this washout.

97-98 had the Aleutian low in an unfavorable spot, mostly in the Gulf of Alaska which cuts off cold air coming down from the pole. Instead that floods Canada with Pacific air. Since we had no cold air source as a result, the storms were too mild despite the good tracks. If we can get cold air down here for any sustained length of time, I’m confident we can pull off a good snowstorm or two. It’s a matter of reshuffling the pattern and having cold air available when we get the storms. If we can get the stronger than advertised SE ridges which have been the story the past 5+ winters now, I’m not too worried about suppression.

Probably 1.75” here to end it.

Looks like 2.5” in the Port Jeff/Coram areas.

Here about 1.3” so far.

Based on? Here's the latest HRRR which actually went up for MBY. It may very well be that the most rain happens west of the city but I don't see a model or prediction that dropped way off.

And it started right after I moved to the North Shore.

People here forget when @bluewavewas honking as loud as anyone about the snowy patterns we’ve had. Just so happens our luck turned around and he’s calling that as he sees it. I’m sure he hopes we can figure something out this winter. His analysis is a treasure and I learn more every time he posts. If people don’t like it, sucks, but he hasn’t been wrong. And maybe read into it and learn vs complain.

If we can get that split flow with a potent STJ wave rolling east into a big high pressure supplying at least decent cold and an overrunning surface, that's how we'd eventually get nailed with something in this Nino. We can already tell the storms will be there, it'll just be timing one or two with a cold enough couple of days.

Could be the coldest night of the season yet. My forecast low is 23, I think my lowest so far has been 24. Already down to 32 so it could go down pretty far. I know it’s not saying a lot but I guess we should appreciate anything nearing cold this month.

Please move the climate change stuff to the appropriate forum so we can avoid the inevitable bickering/trolling and dragging off topic.