jm1220

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Tomorrow in the burbs will be very cold. Could easily go below forecast. 

Low 20s will do damage but it's still pretty early in the growing season even with all this warmth lately. 

I think generally it'll be okay here, again if it holds the bugs/mosquitoes off for a while I consider it a win. All this rain will mean swarms of them soon.  

46 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Boston has never had two consecutive seasons with less than 20" of snow. The lowest two season average was 17.4" (1979-80 and 1980-81).

Yikes. I think their worst snow season ever is only a few tenths below this winter. 

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

28 degrees won’t do much damage. This isn’t like the late season one we had some years back which was devastating

Point and click here is 27 degrees tonight and 24 tomorrow night. Tomorrow night might be pretty bad if winds go calm, and often our low goes below the point/click. 

24 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A strong cold front is crossing the region. Already, the temperatures is falling from New York City westward.

The low temperature will likely approach or reach freezing tomorrow and Friday morning in New York City. Readings in the 20s are likely well outside New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia.

A storm will likely bring a windswept 1.00"-3.00" of rain with locally higher amounts during the weekend. Significant coastal flooding at high tide and beach erosion are likely.

Milder air will also begin to return during the weekend. The closing days of March could turn warm.

It is very likely that New York City's Central Park will finish the 2023-2024 snow season with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall for a record second consecutive season. Records go back to 1869.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around March 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.42°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is now fading. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring.

The SOI was +3.25 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.827 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 48.0° (5.3° above normal).

 

I wonder if Boston has ever finished with 2 winters in a row under 15"? I think last winter they had just under 13" and this winter under 10" as well. It's just as bad there/even worse based on averages. 

 at some of the model trends for this weekend. Good thing the rain’s desperately needed and there’s plenty of sand left to be eroded on the beaches! 

27 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Great pattern ahead to be in the midwest and Caribou.

So lucky 

MSP is well below average in snow so it’s much needed there as well as ME also well below average. They’re far enough north that they can do well in late March and April. Unless it’s a miracle season like 2018 we’re shut out this far south. And with the likely Nina next winter they’ll probably more than make up for this awful one. 

40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Much more model spread than we typically see around 5 days out. The potential for heavy rains is there if everything gels. But this is a lower confidence forecast than usual since cutoffs in spring are the hardest for models to resolve. Each model has a different low position at 120 hrs. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

Who needs south shore beaches anymore anyways? This one if it sits for a couple days might be a TKO. 

6 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Pivotal is having some kind of issue handling QPF mapping on the Euro AI. I don't think this is correct. Methinks there is a bug afoot!

We’re getting a sneak peak of its plan to destroy humanity by drowning us? 

4 hours ago, psv88 said:

Which is…normal

There once was a time 6 years ago when there was 20” from one storm across parts of LI. Remember ye olde days? 

31 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

good - this early blooming is the earliest I have seen and the birds are chirping outside at 4 AM - maybe the cold will shut them up too till dawn.......

It’ll hold the bugs off for a while which is always good. 

42 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks like multiple freezes and even hard freezes likely just outside the city and immediate coast coming week.

Should put a damper on any early blooms and leafouts. 

Yep, even in this climate we’re almost guaranteed another couple of freezes outside the city. 

70 even on the south shore barrier islands with the W wind. Long Beach also near 70. 

70 once again today. Again well warmer than forecast. 

Spring is mostly nicer SW of Philly where back door fronts are rare. Here and NE of us it’s often miserable because of them. Always dreadful to see the closed upper low develop east/NE of us and you know it’s drizzly stratus and 40s for days. 

Closest station to me hit 72. Was a picture perfect day. And no unless it’s well over 6”+ I don’t want any more snow. What falls this time of year is gone in under 24 hours anyway unless it’s 6+ and probably 10+. 

You can ever so slightly see the seabreeze front on OKX radar, just crossed the LIE in Suffolk. On DIX radar it’s much more visible.

13 minutes ago, ag3 said:

Up to 71.6 now.

 

When it's sunny, always forecast above consensus. Especially when we are in a torch pattern.

Temps this time of year almost always go above consensus away from the seabreeze and in a westerly downslope flow. 

70 here. Picture perfect afternoon. 50 on Fire Island. @nycwinter maybe catch the ferry! 

48 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

wow 3 days next week nws predicting highs only in the upper 40's for nyc....lows in the mid 30's my kind of temps..

“Only” in the upper 40s in March?

What’s someone gonna come up with next, a snowstorm at Day 10? @MJO812  

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Was sooo close.   If the surface low track was about 75 miles more to the east it would have had crippling effects across the NYC metro area.  It was bad as it was but could have been much worse with much more snow and drifting if track was displaced a bit to the east.

 

The 60 hour 4 panel DIFAX prog is framed and hanging on my wall to this day.

I would still rate it a beast where I was living at the time. In Long Beach there was maybe 8” of snow that became icebergs when the water surged in all throughout town. Plus 60+ mph wind. 24” would’ve been much better but still a major impact. It’s the kind of storm you see once in a lifetime. I think in WV every 24 hour snow record was broken. 

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Noticed that this year-everything's going to be a couple weeks ahead of schedule this year

With the recent “winters” we’ve had maybe we need a new schedule. 

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

It has a cold bias in the Long Range.   You should know this by now.   There is no cold or snow coming.  Winter is over and has been over since mid Feb.

We’ve seen these long range head fakes to cold time after time since Oct had these great monthly maps for winter just to get blown away by the rampaging Pacific jet. Until the Pacific SST orientation changes in a meaningful way particularly off Japan and Indonesia we’re probably staying screwed. This winter functioned for much of it like a Nina with a more active southern jet that made it more wet. We had maybe 10 days that ended up being favorable for snow out of the whole winter. 

JFK gusted to 53 last hour and LGA gusted to 58. I wouldn’t say it’s underperforming. I’d say here it’s gusting to 45 or higher at times. If anything maybe Upton should’ve gone with high wind warnings. 

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Friday is one of the few times people will be hoping for the stronger Southeast ridge of the GFS to win out over the Euro. 
 

Unfortunately we’re entering the time of year where the lousy back door front ENE flow usually wins out. 

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

With the coldest departures forecast to be to our west again later in the month, it’s possible that the last freeze in NYC was on March 1st. But even if they get down to 32°, doesn’t look like any hard freezes in the 20s will happen again this season.

The urban heat island might be done with 32 or below, out here though it's usually a few degrees colder or more than the city at night. And like PSV said, lots of blooming here over the last week. Hopefully the cold air sets up west of us like usual again so we don't see plant damage. Of course I'd be more than happy to keep the bugs away a few more weeks. With all this rain the mosquitoes will be awful later in the spring.