jm1220

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

KFRG is a pretty urban site. Barely radiates so it’s not really representative of much of the island. 

I live 20 mins or so north on Rt 110, it’s comical sometimes how much warmer it is there than me. 

Syracuse only has 34.5” for the winter and is behind Binghamton by 4”. That’s eye popping bad-I think that’s about 30% of average to date and has to be close to their all time lowest snowfall winter. 

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Models look so ugly and boring 

Sad 

It was an ugly and boring winter outside the few days in mid Feb. Sad 

Just now, the_other_guy said:

Im impressed with snow cover remaining in Westchester. Granted we have hills. Enjoying last licks

In some places in the shade we have a few inches left here. I’m sure it’ll be gone by Sat after the rain though. 

4 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Wow you did better than me, I had 16 inches at the Manchester border. 

Great storm for us. 

Jan 22 was a nice wintry month, I look back on it very fondly for more than just the big finish. 

We also had a nice storm to start that January. I think it was 1/7 where I had about 8”. It may not have been that great south of the city. 

15.5” for the winter here. Definitely not good since average here is over 30” but a step above total disaster. I still give the winter a D/D-. 

10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

wasn't trying to do that...simply stating that below normal in mid-late March won't cut it for snow/cold like it would Dec-Feb...

I’m more concerned about the massive upper low starting up again south of Nova Scotia and drowning us in endless E winds during the spring. That’s something else this putrid Pacific state seems to be bringing us. As for snow usually there’s a threat or two in March here but inland favored. I’m fine with breaking out from here into the 60s and the trees blooming. Just no massive upper low east of here to back door us for days on end. 

9 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Need canes, many

The hurricanes may help with redistributing heat into the N Atlantic and promote blocking in the winter? I’d like to read more research into it but there’s definitely a correlation between the high Atlantic ACE hurricane seasons and better Nina winters here. The better Nina winters are known for blocking episodes that force the cutter tracks south. 1995, 2010 and 2020 were very busy Nina hurricane seasons with good winters after. 

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Right, this is completely uncharted territory.

As long as we have this marine heatwave off Japan and near Indonesia I’d be down on any cold/snowy winter chance here. Hopefully we see that change later this year. 

2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Next Wednesday looks very warm. Maybe too many clouds for 70, but at least well up into the 60s. 

Great. Bring it. 

15 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

12" here in Jersey melted in less than a week.

The Saturday snow here is long gone, but underneath that we have the waterlogged bulletproof snow that’s hanging on. The high ratio snow is great for a day or so but is gone in a flash in the higher Feb sun and temps around 40 every day. The rest of the snow will be gone in a few days after the rain on Fri but it’s good enough for now anyway. 

Down to 23 here. Sheesh 

26 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Down to 26 already with the 5” snowpack holding its own. Pretty much cement right now. 
 

my low of the year was 13. 

The snow compressed a lot after it first fell, then the daily melt/refreeze makes it pretty much bulletproof. Lots of water in that snow as well. Helps preserve it well. 

24 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

That's where the cold air was earlier this season.   I was shocked when we got anything that came close to winter this year.  For intent and purposes, looks like its over.  Can never rule out a March "storm"...

We can make a lot happen with even marginal conditions-the storm a week ago was a setup that most would say isn’t ideal for NYC and it was still a widespread warning event for most. The Sat storm came in and was at least an advisory event everywhere. In Jan we did have the 2 minor events. I remember that as lousy as Winter 18-19 was, we still did have a good March period. It’s just a matter of setting up a good enough pattern for even a few days to get the pieces together for a MECS. Too bad that couldn’t happen this year (or is very unlikely to), the background state and especially Pacific are just too hostile. 

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Low near the benchmark doesn’t always mean snow. This low is essentially a frontal wave and the cold air is well behind the storm. The northern stream comes in too late well after the storm is gone. We want a high in Canada not another L which throws warm air at us ahead of this storm, and a situation where the northern stream can phase in beforehand. Just a lousy to awful leading setup. 

Just noticed this cool new feature on the PSU EWall site. Looks like the National Blend of Models-NBM is available here.

NBM MODEL LOOP (psu.edu)

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

but why wouldn't it be like other strong el nino to la nina transitions and we torch all spring and summer

don't need or want an nao block after March

 

Because this season didn’t act like a canonical strong Nino unless you consider 1972-73 which also had a -PDO, but that season has a big SE snow event which we haven’t had. There’s also often a strong Gulf of Alaska trough/vortex which we haven’t had. We had huge Arctic intrusions into the Plains/Rockies in Jan when usually they would be warm and Nino climo would have us colder. 

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Strong nino winter. Two weeks of a favorable window was about what we could have hoped for. Wish we could have gotten something bigger for more of the area but it is what it is. 
 

If we get a strong Nina next winter is might be rough again around nyc 

Our one shot with another Nina is a big hurricane season. Winters after big Nina hurricane seasons can be good here-i.e. 2020-21 after the big 2020 season, 95-96 after the big 1995 season. Hopefully the big hurricanes are recurves. 

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Here comes the latest SSW non event. The stratospheric models have been about as reliable as the weeklies . The dumpster fire continues….
 

Would be totally fitting for the big stalled upper low to show up south of the Maritimes again for April. 

If the snow this week is it for us so be it, at least a half decent finish in a sea of trash. 

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

We already had this in January 2016.

Probably not with such a hostile Pacific, but we’re due for a massive 30”+ storm area wide that can take in the increased moisture we see with storms and cold enough air. Could’ve been this year if we could tie in some cold air with one of the very moist STJ storms we had but still too much of a Nina influence and exceptional warmth in Canada. 

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

What I find interesting is the fact that both coasts are the only locations to increase snowfall - even down to coastal North Carolina!!

I may be over simplifying, however, this must be due to higher moisture and proximity to events which are continually increasing in intensity. 

Likely due to more big coastal storms that drop much more snow per event, helped by a warmer Atlantic. We've had a lot of miller B type systems that can blast places NE of Philly but screw over DC. It made for huge winters in the 2000s-2010s but it's a very feast or famine way to get your snow, and now that the Pacific is in a hostile phase we see cold dump into the West, and patterns that favor cutters or SWFE type events. The next map like this in 10-15 years will likely show a lot of blue in the Rockies and N Plains and yellow/orange here. The background warming also means less snow on the margins-like your event that can salvage 2-4" on the front end or to end it being just rain, and even more hostile patterns like a steeper SE ridge. 

31 minutes ago, psv88 said:

25 now of a high of 41. Temp dropping like a rock. Still 5” of pack in the shade. 

26 here, near 40 in the city still. Places in the sun took a big hit today but like you said, still plenty in the shade. 

11 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

0Z EURO - perfect storm track with no cold air in place prior - need the storm to slow down west of us and cold air get here first

Look about 300 miles north and you have your issue. You want a big H there not L. Cold air comes in behind the storm as shown-from that we’d be dealing with the warm air coming in ahead of that Quebec low. There’s time for changes but not encouraging so far. 

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Will be late in the game, however still a possibility.

By that point I'm ready for warmth. What snow we get in late March is nice but gone in 2 days/less unless it's a monster. 

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

The park at 7 is so embarrassing 

It's ridiculous, and it's what's reported as how much snow NYC has. Maybe some private company should start doing measurements at the Park if the regular observer keeps screwing up, or choose an airport to have official NYC obs, probably LGA. More often than not it's snowier IMBY than the city but I supposedly have more than double that (which is BS).