jm1220

51 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I felt like today was summer saying goodbye 

It’s a step down the staircase to winter. Maybe there’s 3 more stairs to go down if we have a warm wet torch, 5 or 6 if we have cold/snowy periods but step down today for sure. 

Quick shower here to end summer 2026. 

15 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Thats why we protect the dunes!  While this is awful, they did their job.  Other places were not so lucky, if you can call it that.

Those homes and many others are in trouble if we repeat this 3-5 more times over the winter. 

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

What is this ranking based on-pressure? 

8 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Very memorable storm. I can’t remember the last time my entire property was covered in live tree branches and leaves. Quite the cleanup 

My street is a disaster with twigs on it still and a street around the corner from me had no power for 2.5 days because of branches down on power lines. I definitely agree it was a disruptive storm. I just had power flicker a few times. A few years ago PSEG did a good job clearing branches away from power lines on my street after we had something similar happen with us so this time it probably saved us. 

Was this a bad storm? Absolutely. But we’ve seen plenty of those since especially around 2010. March 2010 for example was devastating for many because of tree/power damage and we’ve had many more since. For coastal flooding in the back bays I think it briefly hit Major status which is what was expected. Upton was a little slow to catch on but eventually upgraded the coastal areas to high wind warnings and flooding was about what was expected. For days models had the 4-5” rains a chunk of us experienced and Upton had a similar total precip map out. The wet grounds aided in uprooting trees vs if we had dry conditions this summer. The beaches got pounded due to the storm lingering for days and yes it’s rare we get these so soon in September. But compared to other storms we’ve gotten in the last 15 years or so is it that historic-no. Disruptive yes. 

6 minutes ago, TriPol said:

If you live on Long Island or the Jersey Shore, you'll remember this storm for the rest of your life.

Where I am personally, notable but I’ve seen a lot worse. Some of the shore areas did flood pretty heavily due to the piled up water over a few high tides. Overall I’d say it was about as expected. The wet ground contributed to more trees down and power outages. 

We’re totally in the “just get this the F out of here” stage. 

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

Lindenhurst low tide & jones beach 

West End of Long Beach by the bay was also flooded so far. Not sure how anyone can say we're dodging any bullet. I'd say it's a worst case scenario but it could be Irene-like by the end. 

And the flooding will get worse. The storm pivoting into NJ will turn the winds around to pile water in from off the ocean for the south shore and NY Harbor. And models seem to have more rain if anything tomorrow. We're in maybe the 3rd inning here. 

11 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Beating a dead horse, but it appears that the entire precip field is getting eroded as it approaches w Suffolk. 

Heavy rains will pivot in and out as the storm meanders around. It’s not like a winter storm where there’s a huge steady overrunning precip shield. Still another 24 hours to go with this. 

39 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Bust

Whatta bummer.  

It'll be where heavy rain bands set up that get the higher totals-I'd say Central NJ on north is in the game equally for those. 

Satellite already looks like a beast incoming. 

Just now, Rjay said:

Upton now has Freeport in the major category for 3 high tide cycles.  

Wonder if it’s at the point it’s worth getting out if you’re in a vulnerable area. 

34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, Sandy Hook could reach the 9ft level or a bit higher which  would only require a 3.5 foot surge on top of the 5.5 astronomical level with the full moon tomorrow morning. A 4 foot surge coinciding with the morning height tide would get to the 9.5 foot level.

The back bays of Long Island could see an even higher surge relative to their locations. The models have a tide level in Freeport  forecast close to 8 foot mark. That would approach the Hurricane Irene tide level.
 

 

I’m sure the back bays are getting wrecked pretty good from this. There’s wave/water rise over multiple tide cycles plus full moon. 

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Trees snapped in half rather than uprooted bc the tree line wind was ripping but the ground was rock hard and didn’t have efficient mixing to surface in gusts.

That looks opposite with this one.

I lived on a barrier island which made whatever rain irrelevant (10 foot storm tide). I also remember the sustained wind being strong but not crazy but the gusts were 85+ when they could mix down. 

6 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Yes, with Sandy, I lived near Rutgers and got less than an inch of rain

I pretty much had a few showers with Sandy on LI. 

9 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Freeport, Lindenhurst, Island Park-the usual spots are in for a rough one. Maybe even parts of Long Beach. 

Big time beach erosion and flood risk with a track like that. 

Down to 50 here. Maybe we make it into the 40s?

1 minute ago, Rmine1 said:

Strangely Upton's bullseye from yesterday looks to be the area that will see the lowest totals

I almost wish Upton wouldn't go with a map like this when it's obviously a convective system. But yesterday the split screw area somewhere was pretty obvious. What a summer for coastal CT deluge. 

2 hours ago, mikeysed said:

Any short range models showing anything interesting?

Looks like a kind of split screw setup-the heavy rain area over Central PA maybe hits the I-84 area, then NYC/LI has to see what happens with the heavy rain area further south near DC. Between those areas probably ends up with little. 

On 9/5/2026 at 6:37 PM, Stormlover74 said:

I’m impressed. He missed the “much above average” to where the most subscribers live. 

2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Beautiful outside right now 

Gorgeous sunset.