jm1220

Wow, 75 in a few areas. Winds are light so the seabreeze/back door front aren’t big factors. Tomorrow should hit 80 for most if we clear out early. 

Very nice here after clouds broke up, and probably off to the races over 70 where seabreeze is muted. Tomorrow might be near 80 again. 

48 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The first week of May will be a continuation of the April pattern. Warming back up to the 80s by Thursday before we get backdoored again heading into the weekend. The 50/50 low still remains strong. 

 

Yup, we need to get that out of here before any consistent warmup. 

Hopefully a stray shower or two can survive to here (I doubt it) just so the pollen can be washed off my car.

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

why do they rely on models so much? what happened to real meteorology?

In a back door marine layer situation we usually do stay cloudy. Luckily the clouds broke up/burned off so we heat up. 

Models had it staying cloudy so lower temps. It’s also a SE not NE wind which helps. 

9 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Looks more like 60s now Friday and unsettled through the weekend 

As long as we have this 50-50 low and trough to our NE, there's always a threat for backdoor front stretches. 

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I can remember the big beach crowds before the season began. It gets really packed once the train crowds arrive from NYC. Gino’s is a goldmine with a line out the door as many people stop there first. It was my favorite pizza on Long Island. Now near New Haven it’s a pizza lovers paradise. Just had Modern pizza from New Haven over the weekend and it’s one of the best pizzas that I ever had. 

Huge lines today in the middle of town, Gino’s etc. Didn’t get a chance to stop at Gino’s, should have. That’s never a bad call. 

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I didn't realize all these people were at the beach

I guess you can go to the beach even though there are no lifeguards there

people are just sitting and reading under umbrellas at the beach or just walking along the sand

I was just in Long Beach, it was a mob scene this afternoon. And you can walk on the beach even with no lifeguards. 

34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I had some interesting temperature observations during all my years back in Long Beach. One day we had a high of 85° through around 5pm while we were south of the sea breeze front. It was around 100° near NYC. A line of strong to severe storms formed and a gust frost developed. It shifted the winds to W to NW and my thermometer jumped from 85° to 97° in about 5 minutes. Another day the sea breeze front only made it to the boardwalk. It was in the upper 80s on the beach with a slight WSW flow and a westerly flow north of Shore road with mid 90s. But most days during the summer we were usually well south of the sea breeze front. Ambrose jets were very common with plenty of blowing sand right onto the streets near the beach. 

97 would be a cheap daytime high on a day like that but it counts! 

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Usually somewhere between JFK and LGA eastward along the LIE out to near Commack just north and west of where the sea breeze front sets up.

 

 

Would be funny how often times in Long Beach our hottest temps during a heat wave everywhere else would be as it’s ending after the cold front passes and the wind turns N with the hot air from the city coming through. 

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Even areas of Long Island closer to the LIE could reach the 80s on Monday ahead of any backdoor cold front. 

 

If we have westerly vs southerly flow on Mon it should be off to the races. Any downslope component/help and compressional heating near the sea breeze boundary will rocket us up E of the city. 

28 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

31 in Muttontown & 32 in Syosset this morning. 80 in GCM currently! 

Should’ve at least been a frost advisory for N Nassau. 

Brief moderate shower. 

Sky darkening off to my west. Decent anvil associated with the incoming rain/storms. Looks like it actually might survive across part of the island. 

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Big temperature swings over the next week. Highs near 70° today dropping to the 30s tonight. Then the first possible 90° readings of the season for the warm spots in NJ next week. With the caveat that the back door will have to be far enough northeast to allow a SW flow and near full sun. 
 

That second highs map to me for Tue says SE wind which keeps it cool east of the city. So it looks like there’ll be some kind of front around or strong onshore flow. Low 70s is still perfectly fine though if we get sun and avoid stratus from the onshore flow. 

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Wouldn't it be funny if it was so hot that JFK even hit 100 with  a sea breeze?

If Newark got to 114 JFK would definitely hit 100 even on a southerly breeze.

The heat index makes it feel just as bad if not worse on LI now with the southerly winds in the summer and regular 75+ dews. In Aug if anything the seabreeze just makes it feel worse here. 92F with a 76 dewpoint is 105 heat index, 96/71 is 104 heat index. So both in terms of actual heat are just as bad. The worst places in a heat wave now are probably the north shore of LI/much of NYC that still heat up before the seabreeze kicks in and still terrible humidity, and less chance of the T-storms that often fire inland and die before reaching the coast. 

Like Bluewave says though it's only a matter of time before we get a big heat dome here like the rest of the country's seen where we all likely get well over 100 and some places like EWR reach 110. 

4 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Yeah temps jump quickly once the sun is out.  Go from 34 to 50 in an hour.

Should end up in the mid 60s most spots if we don’t get a stiff seabreeze. 

51 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Mid 30s here and already well into the 50s.

By 8:45 when I left my house it already warmed up quite a bit. 

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 850 mb temperature forecast from the Euro next Monday would support highs near 90° for the usual warm spots in NJ. But the big wild card will be whether we can push the backdoor far enough northeast. So we’ll need to get into enough sun and SW flow for the higher temperatures to be realized. But we should still have a shot at 80s even if we can’t make it into the deep SW flow.

 

I never like seeing that massive 500 low east of us like that. From that view maybe we’re safe for a couple days but it’s not far off. 

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Freeze warning tonight 

 

ugh. Can’t wait for the 80’s 

It’ll come sometime next month when the highs to the north/back door regime relaxes but unfortunately it probably comes with the 70+ dew points. Our best season with most comfortable conditions now is actual Autumn, and “winter” now is extended Autumn with a week or two of cold sprinkled in where we have to get our snow or we totally strike out. 

Looks like FOK made it down to 24. Mid 30s in my area. As others said pretty impressive for this time of year. 

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Just for once I’d love to see JB predict a warm winter for the bulk of the E US and stick with it! But he’s already been trying to suggest a +PDO for next winter despite there being -PDO on all TT extended SSTa maps I’ve seen.

 Here may be the reason he’s suggesting +PDO, which I feel will very likely fail. Below is a WB CFS SSTa map for NDJ (1981-2010 climo):

Compare the above to TT CFS (same model!) NDJ map below (similar climo of 1984-2009): -PDO

1. Why is it so cold S Japan SE/Eward on WB but almost opposite on TT?

2. Why is there ~warmest SSTa in N Pac off Cali/Baja on WB (JB already saying he likes it there because that’s consistent with +PDO) while TT’s only slightly warm there with much warmer in WPAC E/SE of Japan?

3. Why is WB so cold in IO vs NN on TT?

4. Why is WB cold in SPAC E of Aust. vs warm on TT?

5. Why is WB so warm in SPAC W of S.A. vs NN on TT?

6. Why is it BN off SE US on WB vs AN on TT?

7. Why is strip N of Antarctica AN on WB vs BN on TT?

 My point is that I’m suggesting the WB CFS SSTa maps, which I feel are causing JB to think +PDO next winter, are likely way off for whatever reason(s). I’m predicting a -PDO as per TT and typical climo of robust La Niña/consistent with marine heatwave remaining E of Japan.

It also looks like a central based Nina which is bad for E Coast snow south of far upstate NY/New England. Our odds small as they are hinge on the high ACE panning out, if that disappoints it’ll be an easy slam the blinds. Hopefully the high ACE means mostly recurves but the precip anomaly maps for summer hint at lots of activity off FL/Carolinas tracking north towards us vs OTS. These steeper Bermuda High ridges recently lead to more of these outcomes. 

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Models are backing off on the cold! Let’s keep this trend going! It’s a beautiful, wonderful thing!!
 

 

 

 

 

Let’s get it to a place where we have ridging east of us. If we have a deep trough of any kind over the Maritimes or W ATL, we maintain the threat of back door fronts. But the sharp cold shot looks less likely. 

6 hours ago, SRRTA22 said:

I LOVE this type of weather. Mist, upper 40s and fog...there's something about it that I love but everyday.... absolutely not haha 

It's the same thing with cold wx...there's not one person on earth who could genuinely say.. "I love this 0 degree weather" 

As one poster said , it's all subjective. 

I like the very cold weather only in terms of the snow it usually means. We don’t normally get cold anymore without a snowstorm involved. But both are very rare now. But yep-useless/wasted cold is also the worst. We’re not near the Great Lakes where that means LES bands.