jm1220

4 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

When you gave up on the storm I thought it was done, but last second trends have happened before. Was hoping for better from the CMC. We need bigger shifts at this point.

I agree, we need pronounced shifts in all the major guidance at this point toward a phase. We're 48 hours out. 

7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Been texting you didn’t even think to go on here bc it’s mostly a nyc metro threat as of now 

It's such a fragile setup. Maybe the 10 pieces can assemble themselves this time to make something happen but there's been countless times since 2019 where it didn't or hit somewhere else. But there's the when I'm away rule in place like in Jan 2016. 

11 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

Gfs is more impressive all around and a lot less flat. If this keeps ticking I can see it being fun on Long Island. Couple more ticks and I might get measurable snow!

I'm in Boston until Monday so it's guaranteed to hit NYC/LI when I'm away. And make for a disaster when I'm driving home.

Looks here like it did at home a week ago roughly with the snowcover. 

Maybe maybe maybe. Ugggh if this ends up a bare bones scrape or close miss. Such a fragile setup but you'd think at this point the models are starting to have a clue. 

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

graf

When other models jump onboard tonight I’ll give it some thought. I wish Jeff B didn’t post it. Of course he knew it would take off like crazy. 

12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

hmmm interesting - secret agents here now anyways whats your take on the Monday system and beyond ?

I have that shield thingy next to my name along with IrishRob and Forky. We’re the traitors like on the show. 

The Monday storm to me is still very low probability until I see other models jump onboard, it’s very fragile and we’ve seen all kinds of possible phasing setups fail over the last few winters so why would this be any different. We’re going to warm up for a while mid to late month but we have to see if the MJO can throw us a bone and allow for colder conditions to return at the end of the month. There can still be snow if we can time that with a storm. 

Just now, NEG NAO said:

you are a moderator ?

I can delete posts and pin/lock threads. Guess you can call me a rent-a-moderator. 

26 minutes ago, SHELEG said:

Time to reopen the thread. Not sure what was the point in closing it.

WeatherGeek asked me to close it.  

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

We have two opportunities. One as we traverse through phase 3 although may favor northern areas and one as we get back to 8 about the second week of March. Our area is slightly above average snowfall ready however would be disappointing for CPK to be under. 

Accounting for the under measurements Central Park is probably around 25”. So if no more snow, would be slightly below normal. Central PA having yet another awful snow season-Williamsport at 17”. My average is probably around 35” and I have 30.5”. I’d still say it’s likely I make it to normal even if it’s scraping a couple of small events together but it’s a  disappointment we couldn’t make any real snow happen since 1/25 and nothing really on the horizon. 

9 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Snowpack still (realtime) evident on the satellite loop, we'll see how much is intact by Tue pm / wed Am when the area could see the first 50s since mid Jan.

 

 

Some south facing lawns/hills have some bare spots but as expected this is a very resilient snowpack because of how much water is in it. 

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

can we lock this thread guys. I won't make a thread until January 2027 i suck!

As you wish.  

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Definitely a more traditional Nina-like pattern coming up for the rest of February. But it’s really interesting that we see a piece of the cooler Northeast relative to other areas which has been in place since November continuing.

So more of a close to average temperature pattern here with the warmest temperatures missing our area. Longer term the models are forecasting a transition to El Nino. Nina to Nino summer transitions typically haven’t been very warm here like we saw during years like 2023, 2009, 1997 and 1986.

But the last strong drought La Nina to El Nino in 2002 was very warm. That year was a much warmer winter than we just had. So we can see competing influences this year with extreme drought across much of the CONUS and a lingering cold pool near the Northeast.

So it will be interesting to see if the Northeast can hold onto the local cooler readings relative to other areas. Or the drought feedback ridge to our west eventually builds into the Northeast with the heat.

 

Really hoping we can get some ridging here into the spring. Last thing I want is endless gunk on easterly winds. It just makes it miserable and doesn’t help the drought. 

4 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

lol.

can't win em all

I'm sure a lot of NYC folks would feel the same about Mar 2017...even Dec 2003 it looks like around your area did very well compared to the city. That storm blew chunks here. Dry slot city. Orange county definitely got some of the goods that storm.

 

 

The front end on 12/5 produced for almost everyone north of I-195 and there was so much optimism for the next day when it became the big coastal storm, but like you said it was like Swiss cheese with winners and losers. In Long Beach it was okay to decent but it could’ve been way better had the Swiss cheese holes not happened. 

On 2/6/2026 at 5:23 PM, Stormlover74 said:

I remember that epic final band coming through at 2 am

Yep I was thinking I’d end up with maybe 4-5” after so much was wasted to sleet/rain and that saved it. 

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

There is a chance

Yep. There’s a chance the Loch Ness Monster really lives in Jamaica Bay and he’s gonna pop his head up and devour a fishing boat. 

Can we change the title to Presidents No Potential? 

6 minutes ago, psv88 said:

34 and sunny off a low of 28. Can’t believe this snow pack is still here. Still 4-5” in full sun areas, 7-8” in shaded spots. 

That’s what 2” of sleet driven into it will do. 

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The back of winter appears to be broken on those maps.    With normals climbing that's probably 40-45 degrees here

The coldest is definitely behind us but cold enough to snow at the end of the month-hopefully and get it to time up with some moisture. We need some luck since we’re back to the garbage hostile Pacific pattern of the last few winters. 

1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

Don’t worry, we signed my son up for baseball again. It will rain every weekend starting in April and lasting until June. This is the Ball model and is amazingly accurate for spring. 

Or we’ll have foggy drizzly crap in the 40s on easterly winds. Misery but without the benefit of rain for the water table/reservoirs. 

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

With next system going south the dry streak will continue. This will be very bad heading into spring. Things need to turn around quickly 

For most of our forum we’re in moderate drought and severe further SW in the DC area. We’ll definitely be in severe by mid to late spring without a turnaround. 

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

I'm convinced it's not melting unless we get heavy rain fog or temps in the 50s.  Even today lost very little

We lost a decent amount today and some south facing hills started showing bare ground. But a long way to go for most. 

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

The operational ECMWF abandoned its call for a big snowstorm, but its AI cousin maintained continuity from its earlier cycles with its call for a lack of snow.

 

FWIW, I've seen some complaints on social media concerning the EC-AIFS. They concern the model's being a "black box." At this point, given what I've seen, it's probably better that the AIFS is, in fact, a "black box," as it limits the ability of those who don't like what they see from injecting their own biases into the mix; a lot of that occurs when the non-AI model solutions are pulled apart (often yielding incorrect solutions from the injection of subjectivity).

The AIFS has done quite well this winter, especially within four days. It has sometimes seen changes, but its run-to-run continuity is generally better than its non-AI counterparts, aside from its accuracy. This allows for longer lead time without compromising accuracy.

It did well in December when sniffing out the clipper threats and with the miss a week and a half ago. 

40 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is just a trash model these days. Aifs ensembles also trended south

Did your kid cry this time when he saw it? He should. Great opportunity to bond over weenie tears. 

Big melt day today. Probably upper 40s for highs. This time of year without clouds we usually overshoot expected highs with the sun getting stronger every day and no leaves on the trees.