jm1220

8 hours ago, wdrag said:

Added the monthly outlook update from Oct 31 to the topic.  Canadian block gone now for at least a couple weeks so maybe the extreme potential down here is reduced til later Nov?  Fast flow USA/Candian border suggesting frequent gusty CFP's next 10 days.   Attached snowfall in Old Forge NY this Nov 1 morning, just to whet your CP appetite. I hope we get more than a half inch this winter in the park. 

 

Old Forge-5 hour drive away but may as well be 5 light years in terms of snow.

5 hours ago, Intensewind002 said:

We did get some minor tidal flooding along the roads bordering the Great South Bay, Went to Babylon dock and the water was maybe a few inches above the docks themselves at high tide. Seeing the boats at a higher level than you are is always a weird sight regardless of how bad the flooding is

Neap tides with the half moon helped keep the water levels down a little but strong easterly winds piling in water will always be a problem here. 

1 hour ago, Intensewind002 said:

Finished with only 0.98" here in Lindenhurst. 

The shaft zone was roughly the Suffolk border to about 8 miles or so east. I have maybe 1.4” here. Better than it could have been. 

7 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I don’t believe that’s where we would want all the storminess. That’ll keep knocking into west Canada and west coast and the ridge will keep rolling over. Not a good look to funnel in cold arctic air into CONUS, which is necessary for our snow chances. 

We need ridging into Alaska to drive cold air south from there. A more rounded ridge pointed into Canada would just bring Pacific mild air in. In December especially near the coast the source region for airmass is very important. And obviously a roaring Pacific jet would tend to knock the ridge down and nudge it east. 

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

4.79” of rain this month. Ground still dries out quickly though. 

A wet October is sometimes a good sign for winter. Cold Octobers are better but dry/warm is almost always bad. Unfortunately with this storm we saw the usual pattern of the SE ridge flexing and forcing the storm track inland. 

An inch or so rain here.

35 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Not bad

Hopefully a nice 1-2" event. I definitely believe the heavier totals inland with the easterly upslope flow and inland track of the low. East of the low will depend on the timing/placement of frontal wave. 

5 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Until we get that snowcover to build up (coupled with the jet extension over north Pacific) mild air will flood CONUS. No wintry weather in the future for CONUS until we get some cooler weather up north or some sort of strong low pressure traversing the nation that can draw down cold air (even that will be difficult as there's no cold air to our north). Warm and mild November incoming. And it's hard for that snow cover to just snap back up and grow rapidly without any cold storms moving across northern tier or Canada 

In December near the coast especially, you want snow cover and a cold air source in Canada for any storm to tap into. In Jan and Feb it isn’t as important, but the warm waters nearby make it very easy to ruin any setup with any wind coming off them. Mild Pacific garbage won’t do it for I-95 south of Boston and even there it’s tough.

Euro a little less stingy for LI but pretty much all modeling has some kind of split screw zone between the inland heavy upslope rain and developing frontal wave for eastern New England. 

1 hour ago, adk said:

Two things - one, you are likely seeing a lot shells. Everything inside is shredded and there is no confidence the shell isn't damaged. Two, what isn't / wasn't concrete is gone. So you might be seeing 30% of the pre-existing structures. 

Also probably tons of flood damage inside near the coast where any surge reached. In my experience in Sandy that’s exactly what happened. From the outside the house looked relatively okay, inside totally devastated.

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

LOL

Story of the last 12+ months here. Why would it change now? 

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't know about him, but that is Chris' explanation.

The waters off Newfoundland are quite warm which I would think favors the south based block but hopefully I’m wrong. 

58 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Another AAM tanking appears imminent
 

 

And I’m laughing at some of these winter forecasts I’m seeing on Twitter that are using solar minimum/low geomag years as analogs and calling for big time -AO/-NAO blocking

 

 

 

 

 

Even when there is -NAO blocking I don’t see it as worthwhile as it’s been in the past with how far south the blocking sets up a good chunk of the time and tendency to link with the SE ridge. Wavelengths are different in the winter but we have a storm coming up that will be forced inland despite the blocking. Honestly +NAO might be better for snow chances here these days. 

Models overnight seemed to get a little better for more widespread 1-2” rain across the area. Maybe we can have a low develop for a while along the front and enhance the rain to the east of the main low. In any event it’s still much needed.

Edit-6z looks lame east of the city again and many would have a very quick dry slot and under 0.5”. 

26 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Pitch black by 5 pm?

Flip side it's light out when I have to wake up for work. 

3 hours ago, Sundog said:

It would really be something if a giant low came through the area and only dropped a couple of tenths in central NJ

ESE flow ahead of a low tracking inland means lots of upslope for E PA/upstate NY and showery weather for the city/coast. Some places east of the low would get lucky with banding but by far the best would be well inland. Looking like a couple/few day nasty period without much drought help here. Thankfully we had the storm mid month to help a little. 

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yep, looking like a shafting east of I-95. 

1 minute ago, dan11295 said:

Looks like Melissa really trying to hug the coastline for a bit prior to finally being pulled inland.

Frictional effects with land especially with such slow movement. In FL we see the same thing with the eye being pulled into the coast near Ft Myers vs Tampa like with Ian and Charley. I think with this angle of approach the effect is to try to keep it offshore? 

2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Cleanest and consistently round looking eye I've ever seen on the satellite loops that i can recall jeez

I hope someone (Josh) can get some photos in that eye. I can’t even imagine what it must be like going from the most violent weather on Earth to sunny calm then back to Armageddon. 

1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said:

I can see bridges under water already,  

https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/jamaica.html

Thing is the water will come up very rapidly as the eye comes ashore, like a slowed down tsunami. And gigantic waves on top. I guess it’s a positive in this case that the elevation rises quickly away from the water.

Just now, wthrmn654 said:

NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft find that Melissa continues to 
strengthen with maximum sustained winds of 185 mph (295 km/h).The 
minimum central pressure has fallen to 892 mb (26.34 inches) based 
on NOAA and Hurricane Hunter Air Force Reserve aircraft data.

The next update will be provided with the full advisory package at 
1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 78.1W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES
 
$$

This is just…. Wow as it’s on final approach to land. Don’t want to add clutter but really hope these people in the direct path have a way to get to safety.

Hoping we get decent rain east of the city since it’s still needed. Looking like the best rain may be setting up west of us again.

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

That was a great run of early season snowfall from 2008 to 2018. The higher elevation event later in October 2008 followed by the historic late October 2011 snowstorm. Then the post Sandy snowstorm and the great SWFE in November 2018. 

Yep, that Nov 2018 SWFE snow was totally unexpected and had the impact of a MECS given it was during rush hour and no one planned for it. Driving back to Long Beach from Melville was like a car zombie apocalypse. And it was bad all the way to the immediate shore. I think it was supposed to be a half hour of white rain that’s it. 

PWS nearby has 32. 

May be a little low, surrounding stations have 36-38. 

9 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Absolutely true.

I moved here in Nov 2018 thinking I’d finally cash in on good winters here vs growing up in Long Beach. Then the luck areawide ran out lol (other than 20-21).