jm1220

Should be the warmest day tomorrow along the coast as winds finally turn more westerly. Hopefully some rain as well. We have a shot at 90 again unless cloud debris ruins things. 

15 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

There are just a handful of days each year where I am happy, for weather reasons, to be on south shore of Long Island.  Today is one of those days.  Thanks to the LIRR strike today I was home.  I haven't been paying much attention to the weather lately and so was floored to hear that Jersey is in the mid 90s.   Here I wouldn't even call today warm.  It's just perfect out.  Not sure I've ever been aware (though I'm sure it's of course happened)  of such a disparity in the past where it was so nice here yet *95* on the other side of NYC.  Crazy.

I think one day so far it's cracked above 70 on the barrier islands. Huge disparity when the waters are still in the mid 50s and barely any westerly component on the winds. There haven't been crazy Ambrose Jets so up here it's gotten close to 90 but by 5-6pm it cools down quite a bit. 

88 here. 

46 minutes ago, psv88 said:

75 today. The pool is up to 80. Summa 

It’s gonna be a good week for us other than the Ambrose Jet making it north of the LIE. Probably low 80s most days on the southerly wind but no nasty sandblaster like on the beaches. 

4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Today’s going to be a sneaky moderate abrose jet day. Some gusts near 40 along the south shore late this afternoon.


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Gusting to 30 at JFK now. Barrier islands stuck in the low 60s. What heat? 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, I can remember days like this living in Long Beach. Current forecast is for 40mph or higher SSW gusts along the South Shore Tuesday and Wednesday. So plenty of dangerous rip currents expected. People should stay out of the water especially before the lifeguard season starts. 
 

Jones Beach water temp is still 52-53. That’ll put a hard stop on any temp climb on the south shore with that kind of S wind. Probably a full on Ambrose Jet day or two thrown in. Even here might be hard to get much above 80. 

This upcoming heat looks very meh east of the city. Maybe mid 80s or so on the N Shore? The south shore might struggle past 70 if we have strong S wind every day. 

2 hours ago, [email protected] said:

I feel that it's time that we have a real serious discussion about next week's heat potential. Some places in and around the I-95 corridor could approach near record monthly high temperatures next Tuesday,  if this air mass lives up to its full billing!

We’ve had mid to upper 90s heat waves in May before, that’s not unprecedented. It also might be for just half this subforum since a lot of it looks southerly wind driven. Maybe we get another crazy Ambrose Jet day or two in this and the immediate south shore can’t get above 70. 

5 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

The line of showers is once again weakening as it moves east into the metro - lets see if it ends up stalling out as some guidance suggests once it is over the metro - really need the rain.....

Maybe 0.10” here. Predictable as the day ending in “y” that it breaks up and dissipates as it gets here. 

38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Earrhlight 

BTW .. what happened to Allsnow from NJ?

Any intel ?

He posted during and before the 2/24 blizzard, we even named the thread/blizzard for him lol. He said he just generally doesn’t come by here anymore unless there’s a major threat of some kind. 

39 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

RIP soon to the Nam , HREF AND SREF.  Going to miss the epic Nam bombs and SREFs awful performances.

RRFS had a good showing in the first Dec clipper. Other than that it seemed forgettable. 

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

Next winter is toast if this plays out like they say. Awful

A strong or super Nino ensures there’s lots of mild Pacific air flooding in. But it will also be moist and we won’t have the endless cutters/SWFE we sometimes see in Nina’s. It’ll be southern stream driven and we have to hope to time one or two of them with cold enough air. We all know what happened in Nino seasons like 2002-03, 2009-10, 1982-83, 2015-16 etc. If only 2/6/10 could’ve edged north a little more. 

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

No freeze here in Nassua. My early girl tomatoes which have been in since early April are taking off now.
One thing we do have is damage to broad leaf evergreens from the winter. Especially skip laurel and Japanese acuba. My red rocket crape mryrle which died back to the ground in 15 made it this year though and is finally starting to leaf out.


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Looking around this area there’s lots of tree damage I assume from the winter storms. 

58 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The STJ should be active. Thats step 1. Step 2 would be blocking. Step 3 would be a negative EPO/ AO.

We need one or two loaded up El Niño southern jet setups to make it this far north with cold air. We don’t want too much blocking to squash everything south. 

21 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Got more rain from the overnight batch here than the daytime batch

Same. That salvaged it being a half decent event. The initial rain barely wet the ground. 

Some light rain here but can see the radar fading to crap. Probably won’t even be enough to get the pollen off my car. 

17 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Either way it will be nothing like it was modeled to be several days ago....as you said yesterday.  Most of the area was modeled at .75 to 1.25" and now we will struggle to reach .25" in most places.  Does not look overly wet over the coming 1-2 weeks.   Dry periods outdoing the wet periods for better than 18 months now.

This time of year when we can still get large synoptic scale events you want to rack up the rain totals. Soon we’ll be relying on daytime convection and 95% of the time that favors inland. 

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Not sure if this qualifies as an abrose jet event. But it is definitely ripping on the south shore right now.


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JFK gusting to 41 this hour. I'm sure a sandblaster on the beaches. Glorious spring on LI. Farmingdale now gusting to 45.

Made it to 72 here but dropping a little on S winds. 

Point and click has 76 for the high here today. Doubting MBY gets over 70 unless we see a more westerly wind. Currently at 66 and S wind but places west/north are over 70. 

13 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Last call for any final season snowfall reports for Tri-State Area (if you didn't already msg me). I'll have all the final season snowfall maps out this week. If i don't hear from you ill do my best to add the 3 minor events from Mar 3-4, Mar 5-6 and Apr 7 to this map. The numbers on this map were ending on March 2nd (except the climate sites which i already changed).

I’ll go with 52.2” in Huntington Station. 

10 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I'm putting out a call for anyone who has final snowfall totals for the season for their town. There wasn't much after the last update on March 2nd but interior areas may have added a bit to this. 

Let me know via PM or tag me, thanks!

Winter 25-26 snowfall maps

Had a very minor event after then that was a good coating so I guess I’ll go with 52.2”. Thanks for putting the maps together! 

15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

must have been the 0z GFS-the 6z is way south and OTS

Suppression depression in May. Hate to see it. I’ll be more than happy to salvage a weekend though. 

S Nassau getting it pretty good today. Radar estimating 1.5” so far. 

Obligatory "if only this was winter".