jm1220

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Unfortunately, the Pacific Jet has been too strong during the winter. So as the gradient weakens further into the spring, the weaker jet isn’t able to act as a kicker. So these closed lows get stuck in place when people are ready for sunny spring weather. But the good news is that the northern edge of the drought areas to the north of I-80 and into CT has improved with the soaking rains there in recent days. 
 

 

I’m fine with getting the rain now since we often dry out so much in the summer. Build up the groundwater now and have it as a buffer when almost inevitably on LI we can go weeks without appreciable rain from June-Sept. 

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

7.36” max to our north is improving the drought conditions there.

 

 

SE moist upslope flow helped enhance the rain over the Catskills. 

Sun peeking out. 

Probably 0.6” total here now. 

Finally some heavier rain here in this batch. 

15 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Long Island spring. 20-30 degree differences around the island 

I drove down in the evening-shorts and T-shirt at home, definitely needed a hoodie on the shore.

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Summer like where it's warm and muggy.    81 here

81 at my house too. Summer for sure

Mid 80s in Oyster Bay, 61 in Long Beach. 

Just now, Sundog said:

UKMET haha:

Fickle evolution. Hopefully the wetter models are right. It won’t cause flooding since the rain comes over a few days and we need to build up the groundwater for summer. 

35 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I was just gonna post the same thing. Models not showing much anymore ... most of it stays to the north and west. We probably have to wait until Monday into Tuesday for our soaking. As long as it comes eventually. 

GFS has much of it staying west of us again and most of our subforum about an inch or so over the few days. This can still evolve in a way that’s mostly just chilly east wind mist and occasional light rain. 

3 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Meh. We’ve gotten 5” in a few hours. This is nothing. Can’t wait for it to be over 

5" over a few days would actually be quite beneficial. We all know what normally happens on LI in the summer. Also we have to see how it evolves. Could be a few days of mostly raw misty crap on easterly wind while the real rain is west.

4 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

There hasn’t been much major severe to write home about in this part of Central PA for what seems like the last several years but this year has definitely been off to a wild start. Prior to yesterday there was a widespread severe event on 3/16 that really impacted some of the same areas with a few NWS confirmed tornadoes and lots of straight line wind damage in the I-80 corridor as well as the 99 corridor too. That one really hit Bellefonte and surrounding hard. 

Last nights line really hit a bit further south.. getting Cambria/Blair/southern Centre/Huntingdon coming in from western PA where it had its largest impacts in and around Pittsburgh. Carrolltown in Cambria County had the most notable damage report, with a cell phone tower being destroyed by the winds. Something you don’t see often outside hurricanes or maybe direct hits from tornadoes. The NWS reportedly surveyed this today and reported that to be straight line wind damage of 110-120mph winds. 

https://www.wtaj.com/weather/nws-survey-confirms-straight-line-wind-damage-in-cambria-county/

There was other widespread issues around here and tens of thousands of folks without power. I was out here for a couple hours and my parents up the road didn’t get theirs back until earlier today. No damage here at home fortunately. 

 

Wow. Reading today about much of the PSU campus/State College still with no power, and trees down everywhere. I never saw anything that bad when I was there.

Gorgeous. 75 this afternoon right down to the beaches. 

1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said:

NWS State College was late to the party again the 2nd time this year on Severe Thunderstorm Warning for my location. They issued the warning while the storm was already in progress at my location.

Looks like it was quite intense heading down the I-80 corridor. In State College lots of trees down/roads closed. I remember some decent T-storms and small hail when I lived there but this seemed particularly bad. The line bowed out heading that way so I’m sure there was significant wind impact that whole area. 

Edit-saw report of 65mph gust at the NWS State College office. 

Wow. Tragic  

https://www.wtaj.com/news/local-news/man-electrocuted-killed-after-storm-damaged-lines-in-centre-county/

22 year old was killed in State College PA yesterday in the severe T-storms. Tragic. That bow echo looked pretty intense going through the area. Lots of downed tree reports. 30000+ without power in State College area as well. 

https://www.wtaj.com/news/local-news/man-electrocuted-killed-after-storm-damaged-lines-in-centre-county/

Should be nice down to the shoreline tomorrow with NW offshore wind, though might still be gusty. 

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

The HRRR is spot on with temps at 1PM. The NAM tends to be too cool. 

Yep not terrible on the barrier islands actually. Long Beach made it up to 60. Winds are picking up though-JFK at 20mph this hour so right on the water might be nasty with blowing sand. 

71 at home, 58 in Long Beach. Was actually expecting colder on the barrier islands. 

43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I remember days like this living back in Long Beach. Would be hearing about 80s to the west. But wind gusts over 30 and blowing sand at the beach with 50s. I always had to hose down my bike after getting sandblasted riding the Long Beach board walk. 

Definitely strenuous riding on the boardwalk those days. 

14 minutes ago, Sundog said:

 

Quite the gradient this afternoon on the 3K NAM:

Nasty afternoon to be on the south shore. 

Around 5/5-6 timeframe the models build in an upper low near and NE of us, which we all know means nasty onshore/backdoor conditions. Hope it's wrong. Probably won't bring much rain either which we're starting to need and have to build up in the groundwater before summer. 

5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Not surprisingly it looks like the best of the storm is paralleling the LIE. Pretty meh, here in lynbrook. 

Barrier islands had maybe a couple showers and are missing this, summer drought season starting early. 

In Long Beach today-nice and around 60 but would rather be at home where it’s 75. 

2 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

yeah millions  woops.  I'll edit my post

 

The Sun fuses 600 million tons of hydrogen to helium every second and the helium accumulates like ash in the core. The core gradually shrinks as there’s less hydrogen to burn, but as it shrinks it heats up, and the reaction rate/energy output from the Sun increases and over time the outer envelope of the Sun expands. Interesting stuff. 600 million tons sounds like a lot until you realize the Earth is basically a dot compared to the Sun.