jm1220

15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

A location in WI will do better with snow then NNE now 

NNE will probably be fine. The storm cutting north over MI allows that WAA to max out further west and the secondary to take over and lock in the cold. Might still be worth watching down to I-90, even in Boston I’d keep an eye open. Here of course it’s just another flavor of misery. Whatever can end this complete garbage pattern I’m down for. 

31 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models have a strong secondary inland now that's trying to mix a strong LLJ down.

But inversion would make it tough to get strong winds

It’s going to be 3-4 days of misery, whether it’s a little windier or not. That’s all this block-whether it should be called that or not anymore with them regularly linking with the SE ridge now-is good for. 

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Chris has received alot of weenies this past winter but he did a great job when everyone including myself was hard on him for being a warnista.

Same can be said for Allsnow. I think frustrations are setting in for many snow enthusiasts. 

 

5 years ago he was on the opposite train and honking up the big snow patterns we were in. When the pattern supports it he’ll call that out, when clearly it doesn’t like now he calls that out. 

12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

it wasn't obvious but shows it has been showing this for several days now.........and a real Meteorologist Typhoon Tip likes how the model is handling this setup.....

A storm with a primary that tracks to Buffalo or Lake Huron will never be good for anything here other than heavy rain and a dry slot. 

2 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

Almost looks like the CMC is struggling with convective feedback the way the coastal develops towards New England and then all of a sudden pops off NJ.

Easy toss 

More dreariness and cold, that’s of course a guarantee. 

38 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’m worried about a dangerous Atlantic hurricane season coming up…record warm MDR already, ++AMO, rapidly developing (possibly strong) La Niña…bad, bad combination. I also think we see a very hot summer with a likely roided up SE ridge and given the extreme soil moisture we have in place, it’s probably going to be humid as hell too

If we have the SE Ridge/Bermuda high displaced north like we've been seeing the last several summers, there's the danger hurricanes will track N into our area instead of N then NE before hitting us. Probably will be a very active season.

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

The warmer winters really starting to effect sne now. Boston hasn’t had a snowfall over 4 inches in 2 years 

Boston’s had a turn to bad luck since 2015 in general but the warmer conditions are teetering them over to sucky outcomes. If the storm last mid-March, 2/1/21 etc were 2-3 degrees colder, they’d be sitting on 25-30 more inches just from those 2 storms. The storms we had in mid Feb and our one widespread decent snow event 2/28/23 missed them to the south. The Jan 2016 blizzard just brushed them. I can’t see them ending below 10 inches this year, they’ll get some late snow event to get them over it. And I don’t think it takes a whole lot in this setup coming up for them to get slammed unlike us. Of course the 2-3 degrees too warm can happen and they get white rain again since they’d be relying on big dynamics to overcome onshore flow probably. 

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Upton went all in here with blizzard conditions and big totals....most of the storm was heavy rain during the day...then we got a dryslot of sorts with some light garbage snows...we did get accumulating snow overnight mainly on the grass, ended up with 3-4 inches of slop

The upper low probably trended north at the very end like these tend to and I’m sure especially then with lousier computer models. 

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Right, sounds like April 1997 is top end potential for us.... and we got 1-2 inches in that which is amazing for April but far short of the 8-16 inch forecasts.

Do you remember those forecasts--- they were talking a full on blizzard, and it only happened in the mountains and then up at Boston, where they got 30 inches!

It's absolutely amazing that Boston could get such a huge snowstorm in April!

I don’t remember that storm at all and I would’ve cursed it to no end seeing Boston and I-90 get buried while I maybe got my 1-2” table scraps. 

45 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

There were numerous other early April snowstorms that happened after that but this isn't any of them either.

Maybe April Fools 1997 could be an analog but this isn't good enough to do what that did down here (which wasn't much.... 1-2 inches of snow, but a lot more in the mountains and in New England.)

I’d have to look up the specific examples but the April storms we got like 2003 and 2018 were southern sliders that went underneath our area, not big closed upper lows where we’re waiting for the primary to die off. That primary kills whatever marginal airmass we have anyway to start with, and also a huge dry slot. We need the whole upper low etc setup to depart well south of us, I’d say no further north than Ocean City MD/Cape May maybe. The CCB will set up north and eventually west of the upper low as it matures, that’s why maybe we’d get table scraps snow/white rain around the matured upper low. That’s what happened to us in the 4/1/97 storm-most of us got screwed because the upper low was too far north and it buried I-90.

27 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

IF it were early March I'd be more excited.   Airmasses have been problematic all year....April 82 had awesome arctic cold unload that would have done January proud.

Any time of year would be a problem with a primary driving up to Buffalo. We would need the closed ULL a lot further south to force the redevelopment and CCB in a prime position for us. As JetsPens said, the ridging out ahead of it will try to force the upper low further north. From Boston on N I would keep a closer eye on it. The best area to be would be the high elevations like Adirondacks to Green/White Mountains and Berkshires. Even if lower elevations like Boston do get heavy snow they’d probably need to fight off marginal surface temps for a while. And again forget about any 10-1 map in this kind of marginal airmass setup unless you’re in the mountains. Down here the max potential I think is some heavier snow/table scraps precip that rots around the CCB that’s nailing New England. 

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Clearly a south trend right now. GFS could give us some snow showers at least. Cold aloft and surface in the 30s

I don’t doubt there’ll be a major storm given the blocky pattern, it’ll just be a miracle to get anything more than some snow showers in the rotting CCB for our sub forum. We’d need the upper low to close off and track over the DC area or maybe even further south. The firehose of moisture and snow will be focused north of that closed upper low. 

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yes agreed but I'm rooting on a big time event up north, not sure those guys want that to start April though. 

Would probably cause some serious damage 

Whenever all the snow melts that they’re getting in NNE it’ll be a big flood threat in all the downstream rivers combined with all the rain we’ve had. Ground of course is totally saturated. 

The 10-1 maps should be thrown out anywhere other than high elevations in a storm like this, we have the usual problems with cold air, primary hanging on too long, the trough might not be that deep etc. I mentioned yesterday that I-90 on north should keep an eye on it but south of there too much is probably working against it. The rain deluge of course will find a way to happen. 

10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Winters are basically 6-8 weeks now--almost like a Richmond VA type climo

Luckily we can also get tons of snow in that 6-8 week period. We just need the Pacific to cooperate in those times and not blast maritime puke all over the continent. 

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

even when we had very snowy winters, it was rare to get meaningful snow this late..... 1996, 2003 and 2018 were it.

As long as we get snow in January and February it's okay, anything outside of that has become very rare.

If (when) the Nina happens next winter, we have a better likelihood of December working out. Hope it happens because the rest of a Nina winter is most likely shot if it doesn’t. And hope we have a high ACE this summer. 

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

makes sense the blocking will break down by then and it's back to the torch

The warmth will be there SW of us and when the blocking leaves it’s full steam bath ahead. 

50 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

So lucky

It’s their climatology not luck. They average more than double or triple the snow we do and it can easily snow into April. We’ve been spoiled but we’re going back to the era where it sucks to be a snow lover here. Is what it is. 

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks, I take it we can talk about the eclipse here too.

From the medium range forecasts I've seen, the further north you go the lower the chances of clouds now? So basically all those people who were saying go to Texas or Arkansas or Indiana or Ohio are going to be wrong because that's where the most chances of cloudiness is predicted to be as of now? And once you get to Buffalo or Syracuse or northeast from there, the chances of having sunshine that day are higher?  Down where we are, I'm still seeing "mostly cloudy" but at least it looks like it might be more clear in the path of totality in the northeast?

 

You can really only go by climo at this point and that says the further SW you go the more likely there is to be sun. But it’s really anyone’s guess. I’ll be in FL for the eclipse so for me it’ll only be 50-60% partial but it would suck obviously to spend $1000+ on hotels/airfare etc and stuck in traffic for a cloudy day.  Such a crapshoot. So I would stay in the Northeast just for that reason and go by car. I looked up flights to Austin for the hell of it and round trips are over $800 and hotels I’m sure are sold out. 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, I think we still would have had P-Type issues near the coast even in January since the Southeast ridge is forecast to be very strong a day before the storm next week. This allows the primary to ride pretty far north before the coastal eventually takes over. So a continuation of these -NAOs and -AOs linking up with the WAR or Southeast ridge.

 

That’s pretty close to the SE ridge just hooking up with the NAO block which would mean a mega cutter. 

Interesting to see next week whether this bowling ball storm happens for New England and how far south the bowling ball can get. There’ll likely be a ton of snow north of that closed upper low. For us I’m sure it just means tons more rain but maybe I-90 and north should keep an eye on it. This blocky NAO pattern which of course shows up right on time to nasty up the spring makes that more likely. 

13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The easterly solutions look to verify based on radar and the latest HRRR

West of I-95 the rain looks mostly done. Unfortunately probably plenty more east of there, looks like the batch currently over DE will reach Queens on East anyway. 

The NAM snow is fun to look at but won’t happen at least near the city. Maybe far northern areas in the hills. The RGEM 12z which hasn’t been sniffing glue went west a little also but no snow. 

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Euro  with a move even further east for Thurs

Awesome, keep it going. 

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

another thing, this forecast is for 1 PM local time, totality is at around 3:20 to 3:30 PM is it possible that clear area will move further east in that time to reach at least NE PA up to Syracuse?

It’s 320 hours out. Who knows how conditions end up that far out.