jm1220

Already down to 30 here. 

Watching the heavy band right around PIT and west from there argues that this has legs pretty far north for us. 

Should be a really nice event for the South Shore. Can't think of the last time they were looking at the jackpot. Pretty much endlessly the last 2 winters they've been shafted even more than everyone else. Could be some 6" amounts if banding edges north just a little more which happens quite often. Look at how crazy far N the fronto band made it in the last storm. 

7 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Ofc right in the middle of the screw zone. Can't make it up 

Who knows where that zone ends up, but there’ll definitely be a pretty narrow zone that does really well and just south gets ripped off in subsidence. This doesn’t have a ton of moisture with it and relies a lot on the mid level forcing to squeeze out juice. But all will get snow which in this winter is still a huge win. 

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Ballistic hurricane season upcoming. May start off slow with the lingering nino effects, but peak season could produce record ACE. Lots of tracking coming. 

If we’re heading into a Nina later this year, we want a high ACE summer for the following winter. Has a strong correlation to a good/snowy winter here. Hopefully we get lots of long track storms to rack up the ACE that recurve. 

11 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Philadelphia upgraded to WSW

If you believe some of the models today like the NAM just came out, they may be in a min between the northern fronto band and snow closer into the low. Hi-res models definitely emphasizing a rip off zone somewhere in S or C NJ between both. Anyway will be great to bump up the snowpack. Definitely some melt today especially where the sun hits. I’m thinking I-78 to 80, NYC and much of LI could be good for 3-5” based on trends today. 

Euro keeps the idea that there’ll be a relatively skunked area between the northern fronto band and main snow area near the low. Won’t be a problem for us but for Philly and S NJ might be. 

It’ll be fine with accumulating snow with the airmass and dews we have. Midtown as always is a different story but will accumulate too if it’s heavy enough. 

7 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

Kuchura is actually showing more than the 10:1 map on most models.  Being this will all fall mostly overnight with temps in the high 20s could lead to better than 10:1 in some spots

I haven’t had a chance to dive into it but ratios are determined more by cloud level temps where the snowflakes are made. If temps in the snow growth zone are -12 to -18C you’ll have the best snow growth (dendrites that pile up) and ratios. If the cloud is too cold often you’ll have needle/sand flakes which will be 10-1 or maybe even less. 

RAP looks really good. High end advisory event for most. That fronto band across central PA and NJ keeps ticking north. Between that and the main low may be a mini shaft zone so if that keeps going north Philly and I-195 might be in subsidence, but the consensus now is the best snow there. 

Wouldn’t be surprised to see northern areas score again. Looks like another high ratio heavy snow band could set up on the north extent of the good snow which is definitely trending N. 

HRRR with a good advisory event for just about all. 

Good trends overnight. We don’t need much at least around the city for an advisory event. Hopefully we see it continue with a slightly stronger system. 

Had some snow grains stick on my deck from the snow/graupel shower earlier. 

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

South with the heavier precip but the northern edge mostly stayed the same

It consolidates the snow into a coastal low so it dissipates as it comes east from PA. We want that whole setup further north so either the coastal low develops later and that snow survives or we get clipped by the developing low. 

Flurries in E Northport. 

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

dont look at the nam lol

Looks like an issue with dry air drain coming down the Hudson/CT River with the cold air. Sometimes we get skunked from the city east with that in minor events. 

RGEM very nice event, would probably be 3-5” especially I-80 south given ratios. Might have a nice snow cover in places that get hit decently with this and last storm. 

Snow cover doing work to reduce overnight temps. Down to 17. 

21 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

honestly, if we get a little snowfall this weekend i'll take that run. im about done with snow for this season. i enjoy it more in december and january. once feb rolls around i start itching for some warmer weather. yesterdays event was really nice to see, and kind of brought a sort of closure to me for this winter. anything else is the cherry on top

This'll probably be a one hit wonder season like 94-95 with the smaller events like maybe Sat thrown in. Not the absolute basement of lousy but next step up. 

54 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Already dipping below freezing here.

Getting icy in the spots that melted on pavement. 

I’ll go with 7.5” final here. It snowed pretty hard with the last band but only added a little more. 12.5-13” for the season, a third or so of the way to average. At least we have one warning event. 

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

I got this storm all wrong. Definitely one of the most challenging storms I’ve ever seen since I’ve been a weather hobbyist. Never seen the models this bad, this close in. But I’m more than happy to admit I was wrong. Hope everyone enjoyed the snow. It was impressive and really a big surprise is what has been a complete dud of a winter until today….

Lots of people with egg on their face from this. Boston had a snow emergency for less than 1” total.  

Wow, this stuff is literally like cement. Compacting like crazy. 

Just now, Kaner587 said:

Back edge means business 

Yep-it’s coming down as hard as it’s been all day. 

Here we go-back to moderate/heavy. Let’s see what this last band can do.