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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    The Saturday snow here is long gone, but underneath that we have the waterlogged bulletproof snow that’s hanging on. The high ratio snow is great for a day or so but is gone in a flash in the higher Feb sun and temps around 40 every day. The rest of the snow will be gone in a few days after the rain on Fri but it’s good enough for now anyway.
  2. jm1220
    Down to 23 here. Sheesh
  3. jm1220
    The snow compressed a lot after it first fell, then the daily melt/refreeze makes it pretty much bulletproof. Lots of water in that snow as well. Helps preserve it well.
  4. jm1220
    We can make a lot happen with even marginal conditions-the storm a week ago was a setup that most would say isn’t ideal for NYC and it was still a widespread warning event for most. The Sat storm came in and was at least an advisory event everywhere. In Jan we did have the 2 minor events. I remember that as lousy as Winter 18-19 was, we still did have a good March period. It’s just a matter of setting up a good enough pattern for even a few days to get the pieces together for a MECS. Too bad that couldn’t happen this year (or is very unlikely to), the background state and especially Pacific are just too hostile.
  5. jm1220
    Low near the benchmark doesn’t always mean snow. This low is essentially a frontal wave and the cold air is well behind the storm. The northern stream comes in too late well after the storm is gone. We want a high in Canada not another L which throws warm air at us ahead of this storm, and a situation where the northern stream can phase in beforehand. Just a lousy to awful leading setup.
  6. jm1220
    Just noticed this cool new feature on the PSU EWall site. Looks like the National Blend of Models-NBM is available here. NBM MODEL LOOP (psu.edu)
  7. jm1220
    Because this season didn’t act like a canonical strong Nino unless you consider 1972-73 which also had a -PDO, but that season has a big SE snow event which we haven’t had. There’s also often a strong Gulf of Alaska trough/vortex which we haven’t had. We had huge Arctic intrusions into the Plains/Rockies in Jan when usually they would be warm and Nino climo would have us colder.
  8. jm1220
    Our one shot with another Nina is a big hurricane season. Winters after big Nina hurricane seasons can be good here-i.e. 2020-21 after the big 2020 season, 95-96 after the big 1995 season. Hopefully the big hurricanes are recurves.
  9. jm1220
    Would be totally fitting for the big stalled upper low to show up south of the Maritimes again for April. If the snow this week is it for us so be it, at least a half decent finish in a sea of trash.
  10. jm1220
    Probably not with such a hostile Pacific, but we’re due for a massive 30”+ storm area wide that can take in the increased moisture we see with storms and cold enough air. Could’ve been this year if we could tie in some cold air with one of the very moist STJ storms we had but still too much of a Nina influence and exceptional warmth in Canada.
  11. jm1220
    Likely due to more big coastal storms that drop much more snow per event, helped by a warmer Atlantic. We've had a lot of miller B type systems that can blast places NE of Philly but screw over DC. It made for huge winters in the 2000s-2010s but it's a very feast or famine way to get your snow, and now that the Pacific is in a hostile phase we see cold dump into the West, and patterns that favor cutters or SWFE type events. The next map like this in 10-15 years will likely show a lot of blue in the Rockies and N Plains and yellow/orange here. The background warming also means less snow on the margins-like your event that can salvage 2-4" on the front end or to end it being just rain, and even more hostile patterns like a steeper SE ridge.
  12. jm1220
    26 here, near 40 in the city still. Places in the sun took a big hit today but like you said, still plenty in the shade.
  13. jm1220
    Look about 300 miles north and you have your issue. You want a big H there not L. Cold air comes in behind the storm as shown-from that we’d be dealing with the warm air coming in ahead of that Quebec low. There’s time for changes but not encouraging so far.
  14. jm1220
    By that point I'm ready for warmth. What snow we get in late March is nice but gone in 2 days/less unless it's a monster.
  15. jm1220
    It's ridiculous, and it's what's reported as how much snow NYC has. Maybe some private company should start doing measurements at the Park if the regular observer keeps screwing up, or choose an airport to have official NYC obs, probably LGA. More often than not it's snowier IMBY than the city but I supposedly have more than double that (which is BS).
  16. jm1220
    You would think that so much convection there all the time would cool those waters down but I guess not.
  17. jm1220
    Nasty squalls headed for the Forks.
  18. jm1220
    This season gets a D from me so far, maybe D-. Since I’m at about half of average now it’s not a F but hard to put it any better when I’m still below 20”. Also very warm and we’re going back to the torch next week.
  19. jm1220
    Heavy dippin’ dots shower a few minutes ago.
  20. jm1220
    Yeah, as soon as the band stopped making headway north in SE PA and headed mostly due east I knew I wasn't getting in on it but happy for the places that got relatively ripped off in the last storm. My 3" roughly is what was expected so I can't complain. Models for a couple days were showing a northern fronto band somewhere and the N trend stopped just short for me. But with the dynamics at play like Bluewave showed it's no surprise it was as insane as it got, and we saw 8-10" amounts with it in Ohio in the same narrow area. But where there's the crazy lift next to it there's subsidence and there wasn't especially much moisture with the storm to catch up elsewhere. The snow here overnight was little dust flakes that shows how little lift there was. When the crazy band pivoted away and subsidence ended, I was able to start catching up a little with the hangback snows and bigger flakes. 15.5-16" on the season (there's part of one storm I missed here). Halfway roughly to average.
  21. jm1220
    Still just a hair under 3", I'd say 2.8-2.9". Thankfully the street is wet and the existing snow looks good as new. Very little shoveling.
  22. jm1220
    Assuming I end with 3" that gets me to 15.5-16" on the season. Maybe 20" can happen if there's another storm at end of month.
  23. jm1220
    Have 3" new or a hair under on my deck. That's probably what I'll end with unless we get another good snow burst or two. Still light snow coming down-nice sized flakes vs the dust overnight. That'll help pile it up faster. Nice fluffy snow. I think Long Beach/Rockaways must have 8-9" at least.
  24. jm1220
    Probably a different world on the south shore out to Jones Beach/Rockaways etc. Based on that Southern Queens, Nassau and Brooklyn might reach warning amounts. Still coming down there.
  25. jm1220
    This'll likely be known for the 20 mile swath that kills it and everyone else around that gets skunked. This band stole all the dynamics. Models did hint at it. Guess we'll see what happens when this band goes east and we have this hangback snow. That's my one chance to make it to WWA criteria if this adds up somehow. These micro flakes ain't doing it. And an example of why ground temps alone have little to do with ratios. In the death band there are also huge dendrites that stack up because the lift is way better.
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