jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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All-see Vendor thread and please place questions and thoughts from private Mets, TV Mets etc there.
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Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread Part 2
jm1220 replied to Rjay's topic in New York City Metro
Found this and decided to bump it, probably useful for the upcoming Wed/Thu storm. Put questions about DT and other private mets in this thread too. -
Yeah... Could work out that way if it evolves correctly but there’s still the risk it tucks too far north.
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I would think if the confluence holds on it can force the low east, and the GFS with poor resolution might not catch it as well as models like the Euro.
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If this tucks up all the way past Atlantic City we can absolutely be mixing NYC and east. Hopefully the EPS is a little overdone.
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Hopefully the op run is closer to right but I think it’s onto something with this trying to tuck in.
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I don’t buy anyone getting 6” from it, to me maybe it’s a lucky 3-5” where banding can set up.
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At least where I live now, if I’m suffering you’re all suffering with me.
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Can this guy be banned? Im still scarred from that one living in Long Beach at the time.
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Active mid December with multiple event potential
jm1220 replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
About 20” where I am from that (Juno). I was living in TX at the time and missed it. -
To me it's a subdued and quicker Jan 1996/Feb 1983 setup. Strong confluence out ahead of a powerful trough and shortwave. The PNA ridge isn't what those were and this is a quicker pattern so I wouldn't expect those same amounts but for who this does hit it'll be a crusher.
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Yes, keep those right there please. Like I said, I see this trying to hug up to near Cape May and then confluence shunts it out. It's quite a vigorous S/W spawning this beast.
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This storm never gets brought up in any forum here ever again, kay? (3.5" here. very fast over to rain when 12" was predicted). I was in PA a few days later and saw winter heaven, so I'm fully aware how much that storm sucked.
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15-20" of snow in 12 hours pretty much? Uh, yes.
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Oh absolutely. That’s a monster on the GFS. So pumped for something like that.
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Yes but we REALLY need that confluence. It weakens just a little and it becomes an I-90 storm like we’ve seen so many of. So far so good though
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If we’re talking Monday that confluence isn’t in place yet and I don’t see much to stop it from being more of an inland event. Temps are also marginal so this would be a quick few inch or so hit of snow where it’s cold enough. But yes hopefully it can help suppress the flow enough for Wednesday.
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Yeah... this is going to try to hug the coast and tuck as much as it can. We need that confluence to be in place to force it east.
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Not much to stop the Mon event from keeping trending north. We’ll see what happens I guess.
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Again confluence is key. Wave 1-have no idea how that turns out this run but it would help suppressing wave 2 a little more. Yup, that's a little further north than ideal.
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The blocking will be key, the low will try to tuck as far north as it can.
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Man how do we make that be 24 hours out... With the low there though we REALLY need the confluence. If not it's snow to rain unless inland.
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Active mid December with multiple event potential
jm1220 replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Yeah, can't argue there aren't plenty of roller coasters with this upcoming storm(s). Hopefully the evolution can make for a good outcome for as many of us as possible. Plenty of room for a crash/burn as well. Never easy with these. I'd for sure say with any Miller B type outcome typically a further NE redevelopment is favored. -
Active mid December with multiple event potential
jm1220 replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Dec 2009 was a Nina? 09-10 was a Nino. The 12/19/09 storm was a Nino-evolution storm from what I know. Not that I complain about that storm I had about 20" from the 12/19/09 storm. -
Too bad no Kuchera snow map here. Keep in mind this includes whatever rain we get tomorrow.
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