jm1220

Well, in this "winter" at least you know there'll be another one in no time to compare the lameness.

The usual downslope problems might come into play from AOO to IPT and the changeover might come too late for very much. We’ll see.

The ground will be wet so tree/power line damage is a threat too. Rare to see this combination of conditions.

I’m going back to sleep. Wake me up when there’s some kind of blocking north of us, the Pacific Jet stops rampaging, and the SE ridge doesn’t run rampant. Zzzzz.....

It really is just a perfect storm type outcome for a lousy winter. Warm W PAC, +AO, +NAO, SE ridge, raging PAC Jet, etc. Just like last winter, which did turn around a little in March but remains to be seen this year. Does make you wonder if it’s more than just the usual oscillations driving these repeat type patterns and if it’s not something else we need to study more.

It’s the loony range GFS, but that’s not a great track. Notice the low over central VA, and there’s probably tons of SW flow driving warm air in from that panel. No high north of us to keep cold air in. A low SE of here doesn’t mean cold air by itself even in a good winter.

I’d say get it over with and be done with “winter” if we won’t go into any sustained cold pattern with snow. I’m fine with wall to wall warm then.

If there can be mod-heavy precip somehow yes, I'd think it would be snow. If it's light showery stuff it would be a mix or rain because the cold air doesn't get pulled down. More realistically it's impossible to predict much impact right now since the models show a ragged sloppy trough with several waves coming through which seem to negatively interact. The result is a strung out mess that slides out to sea. The N/S wave diving down is a possibility we can't eliminate yet which could force the trough to amplify enough and start a stronger system near the coast. If the waves can't interact properly it won't ever get organized in time. I give it until tomorrow evening before throwing the towel in completely but there's really been only a few stray runs of some models over the last 3-4 days which showed much. We've seen quick last 2-3 day changes before though.

Yup, essentially when Alaska is an icebox in the winter (more so than usual) it’s typically mild and boring here. We want the opposite.

Also really fascinating how the Pacific Jet has essentially raged like an insane wind tunnel constantly which helps destroy any chances we have due to warm air, progressive patterns, no blocking and horrible storm tracks through the Midwest.

Long Beach probably has the same as Anthony. We've been getting an extra 1-2" on each event this season up here vs the south shore. And Ant has the heat island working somewhat against him too.

Yup. Pretty sure the 2/14/06 storm or the 2017-18 storms happened during at least not a great NAO. It’s just a big mess with the number of vorts in the trough coming through so the models will have a rough time resolving everything for another few days.

It can be plenty cold at 850mb and still get rain. 850mb is still 5000ft up.

Oh without a doubt. Even the difference between my old place on the immediate south shore and where I live now is comical at times. On Tue, there was no snow left at all from the weekend minor event SWFE in Long Beach but a good amount left where I live now, almost full coverage some areas. It’s a 45 minute drive between both.

Boston has 14.6” I believe and NYC 4.8”. But plenty of others around have more-I’m up to 9.5” for the season, EWR has 6.9”, etc. It’s been lousy for everyone and just about everyone’s below average except around Albany which got crushed by the early Dec storm.

Exactly. The flow is a mess and models don’t know what to resolve yet. Too early to write anything off.

The threat isn’t over yet. It won’t be over for anyone for another few days. Please stop with the bickering.

All about when the phase happens or if it happens. It has to happen in the right place and way to ensure a favorable track. Still way too early to iron out details but it could be a very nice event if it comes together. There’s enough of a ridge out west that I’d monitor it for sure.

The puddles outside must be getting bigger by 2-3 cm per hour now. Just drenching out there.

If there isn’t a good PNA ridge and/or some blocking, this will likely end up over Detroit. I’m more interested in those over any particular storm.

It takes almost impossibly good luck for a storm not to cut west of us or be a hugger if there’s no blocking north of us or a PNA ridge that forces the storm track to go to our south. Both of those factors are unfavorable for at least the next week. Without those, I’m not really interested in any threat. It’ll probably transition into a cutter closer in like the incoming storm tomorrow which looked better early this week. We may luck out with a cold air shot and incoming SWFE like last week, but that was generally a minor event anyway.

Enjoy the washout.

Yet another Midwest storm. It’s essentially a Nina winter with a more messed up presentation and same tendency to torch and drive the SE ridge. Despite what models a few days out say, that’s the overall pattern and they correct to it until the PNA changes or we see improvements to the NAO.

The problem seems to be one we face constantly where the primary stays alive too long and drives warm air in ahead of it, the upper low tracks too far north and the coastal low tracks inland, and takes forever to take over. That's what drives warm air so far north. Doesn't look like it's all snow unless you're way north in upstate NY or in the midwest.

Southern VT won't be safe either if the warmer models are right. NAM drives warm air right into ME.