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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Which makes it comical how it somehow only has 3-4" of snow in the I-287 area. If anything that may indicate a subsidence area could happen there over my roof on LI. People shouldn't live and die on snow maps.
  2. jm1220
    The lobes rotating around the confluence that's left will be important. Seems like now there is a lobe developing that will reinforce the confluence.
  3. jm1220
    There's often heavy snow west and north of where the max QPF axis is. I don't have access to the upper level charts but even the GFS to me seemed like it would get better dynamics and snow north of where it had it. There'll be a long easterly mid level fetch that will bring plenty of moisture in.
  4. jm1220
    To me it still looked good for many of us.
  5. jm1220
    I’m not worried about anything the GFS shows for coastal storms at this range. It can comically catch onto the consensus 24 hours out or even less. We just have to hope the confluence isn’t too strong.
  6. jm1220
    It isn’t as much a problem this time vs in December when there was practically no snow south of Sandy Hook. But a long NE fetch would likely warm the surface up especially south of Asbury Park.
  7. jm1220
    Yes, definitely true. Last minute north trends are undeniable in 90% of the storms that come here in the winter. On 12/17 areas that got 30”+ had something like 0.25” liquid on most models 24 hours before.
  8. jm1220
    14 here.
  9. jm1220
    Issue is the confluence seems to be strengthening on some of the modeling which forces it too far south. Hopefully that’s a trend that can reverse.
  10. jm1220
    I wouldn't be worried about small details like where banding shows up right now, as long as the evolution overall looks good aloft the rest should fall into place.
  11. jm1220
    Surprised no GFS posts? Looked good to me anyway
  12. jm1220
    The Pacific was totally uncooperative with our blocking which meant the storm today going out to sea, or it relaxed at the wrong times which meant the storm that fell apart for us and hit I-90 instead. This wave looks more vigorous and should reach our area at least with good precip but maybe I’m wrong to think it will and it will be shunted out like the storm today off VA. Still plenty of room for changes.
  13. jm1220
    Temps on the GFS are often total crap. For precip type I would go by the 700 and 850 low tracks. If those go SE of you you should be good for all snow. When those track over or NW of you is when you should be concerned about a dryslot and mixing.
  14. jm1220
    The "dual-max" with QPF min in the middle may be a concern. The initial energy/overrunning max out SW of us and then eastern New England gets pummeled with the easterly flow around the low. Still way too far out to bank on anything but it's a look I've been noticing today. Regardless I don't see this getting squashed way south of here. A 12/17-like outcome where we near the shore worry about the dryslot and warm air is significantly more likely IMO (maybe not the most likely, that's vs. too suppressed)
  15. jm1220
    Just goes to show a whole range of options still on the table. The evolution of the upper low and the blocking will determine who gets what.
  16. jm1220
    The Euro seemed to evolve the system more slowly which allowed the system to become more amped and tuck into/hug the coast. It’s certainly a possibility and yes, a low hanging out in Delaware Bay very rarely ends up as a snowy outcome near NYC and the coast. It means a dryslot and warm air coming in. We’re back in the same boat as 12/17 (with this evolution) where we hope the blocking can force the low east as it tries to tuck into and stay on the coast. As we know it was a solid/good event for us near the coast but better inland. Another issue we have to look at is the primary and how quick it transfers to the coastal low. Plenty of time for things to change.
  17. jm1220
    I’m going with 9” here for the season. 8” from the Dec 17 storm and 1” scattered between yesterday’s event, the burst of snow a few days ago and the small event soon after 12/17. Season average is around 30” where I am.
  18. jm1220
    It’s way too soon to say there will or won’t be anything. And there have been plenty of big storms where I lived right near the beach that were all snow, some fairly recently like in 17-18.
  19. jm1220
    I wouldn’t invest too much in one solution or other until this weekend. That’s why I haven’t been posting about this yet. Definitely potential for something big if cold air can linger and enough blocking can remain to keep the track far enough south. I’m not concerned about suppression in this setup and the tendency for the SE ridge to keep trying to pump. This past system yet again lurched north and was best for I-90. The one thing that can do it though is overwhelming blocking but it seems to be retreating.
  20. jm1220
    Yep, essentially a coating here that is melting with temp slightly above freezing. Lousy as was expected. The Euro became too cold and moist which happened other times this season since the precip that fell came through fast and turned to shredded crap. The earlier models that had the activity and cold combining along I-90 were right.
  21. jm1220
    A decent burst here now, my street is slushy in places. Mostly sticking on colder surfaces, about a coating.
  22. jm1220
    With temps around freezing here I’d think freezing drizzle could become a problem.
  23. jm1220
    Light snow here in Huntington Station. Sticking on colder surfaces, temp 32.
  24. jm1220
    On another note this storm dropped 12-15” in SE Nebraska where snow amounts like this are extremely rare. That’s the equivalent of double that amount here in a storm.
  25. jm1220
    Near the city and coast, be happy if what comes adds up to an inch. The colder models backed off somewhat which is what was expected, or precip diminished.
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