jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Just a mess of different vort maxes, not consolidated. Always seems to be something messing the outcome up even if another factor becomes more favorable.
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If the overall setup doesn’t allow for a NW trend it won’t. Last winter it sure didn’t help with all the suppressed crap we saw. Not saying this one won’t but if the setup is that it closes off and occludes early, 4 lows develop off Cape Hatteras and it’s too positive tilt, it can only trend N so far.
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Trough induces like 5 lows to develop too as it gets to the VA/NC capes so it can’t congeal and gets booted east. That might be the model trying to resolve a low center or it might be real-Jan 2022 suffered from a double low dragging everything east. Hopefully by tonight 0z we start to see this turn around, otherwise I think the fat lady’s starting to sing. If this one doesn’t happen I’m confident there will be other threats.
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Some models are kinda trending to bands of snow getting west as the low spins and rots. Better than zippo.
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Having the trough start with such a positive tilt isn’t helpful either. Although if anything the ridge axis in the west is getting even further west.
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The models have hopefully improved since then but given how little has to change we’re all still in the game, admittedly eastern areas more. It’s not like last winter where we saw a few random weenie runs that we all knew deep down were BS because of the raging Pacific pattern that would destroy the setup.
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We can definitely get 75-100 miles NW out of this system at this lead time. People giving up are crazy. We do want to see consistent positive trends soon but even the most likely outcome now gives eastern LI a few inches.
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Have to think some system gets us before this cold regime really lets up even if this one doesn’t. Maybe we can get lucky with another clipper.
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Got down to 11 here. Fri night I think has a chance to get down to 0 (not in the city).
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I’d want to see a positive trend by tonight 0z to be confident of a major hit here. Good that with even a track SE of the benchmark some snow makes it to the coast/city as it unravels. As others mention this has to occlude later and upper low track further north.
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Stop using kuchera maps for the love of God.
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Getting there. It's occluding early still for a huge hit but we're seeing the steps we need.
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Wow, 6-7 members due S of LI? Wouldn't surprise me if in a couple days we're praising the heavens for the kicker coming at it.
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Was a very tough storm to forecast when you got into the nitty gritty and with the higher QPF than predicted. I didn’t think anyone in NYC or LI would reach 12” in this type of storm and I was wrong. It’s a humbling hobby.
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Or Jan-Feb 2011. That snowpack was epic.
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This is why we don't jump off bridges 120+ hours out with as fragile a setup as this.
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NWS mets actually analyze the data and don’t flip flop and panic like a bunch of weather board weenies.
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We don’t need massive changes lol. EPS getting less impressive is a bummer but we really do just need some small changes in the timing of the upper low cutting off/further NE and the kicker being a little slower and spaced apart from our storm. It’s not like last winter where we had a few phantom MECS runs we all wanted to believe but based on the pattern we knew it was bogus.
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It improved somewhat from 6z. Anyway I wouldn’t write it off especially for coastal areas until Thursday.
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And oh man do we suffer in this hobby.
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It’s really just some small tweaks to where the low closes off, kicker, etc and we’re back to an absolute bomb for 95% of us. To be honest if this one really hits the snow will be deeper than even 2010-11 and I have no clue where it’ll go.
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And considering there’s almost always a northernmost fluff band with these, this might be good on its own for warning snow into NYC.
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We don’t need much. I wouldn’t be discounting anything until probably Thu night.
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We can afford baby steps at this lead time.
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Yep, we might be singing its praises later this week if the coastal storm development gets itself together so we’re not tracking this into NYC. The ridge axis here doesn’t scream way offshore track to me.
