jm1220

Saw a shooting star about 20min ago in the western sky.

The W/N Pacific warm piss pool of disaster is alive and well. Until that goes away my hopes for winter are about zilch (maybe some ridiculous combination of other factors can overcome the Pacific jet here and there but we've seen so many times how it all gets literally blown away, torn apart, etc and we get suppressed crap or a cutter or way too late bloomer). Even the strong 23-24 Nino couldn't really overcome it, it just added STJ juice to the insane Pac jet. September is by far the best weather month here. Hopefully we get a synoptic system or two to give us all some needed rain and otherwise warm and dry weather. Today's just glorious.

I’m thinking where I am there’s another couple 90 degree days left, but we’re beginning our first step down towards autumn. With this cooler pattern some leaves might start changing soon in the Adirondacks/Green/Whites etc.

Flooding on Fire Island and the Hamptons, and water up to the dunes elsewhere. Jones Beach looks pretty rough. High tide looks to be coinciding with the worst of the waves. We’re lucky this turned out to sea.

0.4” or so of drizzle. Get this gunk out of here.

Moderate coastal flooding expected along the south shore tomorrow evening. Definitely enough to flood the low lying spots in Freeport, Lindenhurst, Island Park etc.

Meso models hinted at it yesterday. I-90 special. These very rarely if ever work out IMBY. Somehow they always nudge north and west. I guess 12-15 more hours of mist that gets the total to 0.5”.

Lots of misery mist/drizzle.

That would be great but as always this summer I'll believe it when I see it. Could easily focus way inland/north. Have to watch it evolve.

I can't think of a PRE that was ever decent IMBY. They're good inland over NJ or the Hudson Valley.

Nina in and of itself isn’t unfavorable for NYC, it’s more of a killer south of the M/D line though last winter was very good snow-wise even in the Deep South when the pattern deamplified. But NYC is in a particular Goldilocks geographic area where there isn’t a defined storm type that can be relied on to produce-we’ve had huge Miller B and more suppressed Miller A, and can if we’re lucky get 3-6” from a SWFE, just about all types other than cutter can produce for NYC but also be a dud. The fast Pacific along with the Nina arranged the pattern in such a way that it caused dud after dud despite cold enough air in place multiple times.

It’s not rotten luck. The Pacific Jet oriented in a way and strength that systematically destroyed our chances especially south of I-90 to PHL. Historically when it’s been cold enough in NYC it’s found a way to snow because there would be a PNA ridge that would stick around long enough or NAO blocking to slow the pattern down. Now the Pacific Jet knocks it all down like bowling pins and storms either can’t amplify in time or amplify too much.

Could be some pretty significant erosion later this week. 12-15 foot waves possible especially due to Erin expanding in size. Any weakening unless it’s rapid won’t affect the wave heights much-the fetch is a bigger player and it nudging west doesn’t help either.

Had some thunder when it blew up a little over Plainview. But maybe two drops here.

Maybe a shower here if we’re lucky, the rest is collapsing as it heads over LI or staying over the city as usual.

The lawns kneel and genuflect in anticipation.

Hurricane will be expanding in size as well which expands the fetch.

Beaches will get a pounding in a few days. Surfers paradise.

The higher humidity with dewpoints often over 75 helps heat it up overall since it carries more heat. So even though winds are onshore much of the time at JFK, it carries the higher dewpoints.

About 0.75-0.8” here. Need a lot more but a good start.

Had a pretty loud rumble just now, heavy rain. Great news for the lawns.

Maybe Nassau can luck out and that line can make it to them. Looks pretty fierce.

We both know the answer.

Amazing to me to be in 100 degree heat but see snow in the distance.

Might feel a little better with the westerly flow outcome honestly. I’d rather it 100/65 vs the 92/77 we have with the southerly flow. That way we maybe notch another 100 and the disgusting humidity is kept away. These 75-80 dews we get now are hideous.