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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Naked swirl warning has a nice ring to it lol.
  2. jm1220
    Yup, that low can still easily nudge it east as much as tug it west.
  3. jm1220
    If it keeps struggling like this it might stay east and hit Block Island like the last HWRF shows. Still lots of uncertainty here. I think these crazy NJ tracks are about done though. Good-I’ll take 5” of rain over 90mph wind gusts and big surge. Let my area be on the west side of these for once.
  4. jm1220
    Irene went about 10 miles west of me on the south shore of LI. Winds were strong enough to knock some larger trees down but nothing “extreme”. I’m not sold on the huge wind potential for this one either. If this blows up to a strong Cat 2 maybe but if it straggles as a minimal hurricane it’ll reach us as a mid grade tropical storm.
  5. jm1220
    Comes down to how much it strengthens IMO. If it stays weak maybe it goes east like the HWRF but if it really blows up, it might get pulled west more. That was a decent jump east on the HWRF though. Most likely to me it comes in east of the William Floyd Pkwy somewhere.
  6. jm1220
    I’d monitor the hurricane models more for strength. They show a strong TS most likely at landfall.
  7. jm1220
    15z would be really bad timing with the high tide. Hopefully that can slow down to more like 18-21z.
  8. jm1220
    That’s a shift west. It’s been tracking it around Block Island or east before. I doubt the NJ landfalls we’re seeing on some models but an eastern Suffolk landfall looking more likely on Sun AM. At Jones Beach the high tide’s at 9:30AM Sun. Hopefully the speed can slow down so it comes in at low tide in the afternoon. HMON has been pretty consistent the last 2 runs in tracking it about over my head and HWRF takes it about over Shinnecock Canal.
  9. jm1220
    Also Sandy had a huge assist from a strong mid latitude trough that phased into it. This will be purely tropical and a smaller radius. Big question will be how fast it's moving as it gets here, if it's less than 20-25mph it'll weaken pretty fast and it landfalls as a tropical storm.
  10. jm1220
    That being said the surge won’t be nearly as bad as Sandy. As others pointed out the driver for the surge there was the huge size and track which funneled water into LI Sound and NY Harbor. But if this starts really trending west toward Sandy Hook then NYC really does have to start worrying.
  11. jm1220
    That track would be horrendous for the south shore of LI as well. I’d have to look up high tides but that may be close to high tide. Fire Island and the Hamptons would get walloped. Hopefully this doesn’t keep going west otherwise NY Harbor has to worry.
  12. jm1220
    Anyone to the right of the track would get a nasty surge. How high is uncertain because of how intense the storm will get, how large in size, forward movement speed and low/high tide but enough to cause some major flooding. Winds are also much higher to the right of the track so if it makes landfall as a 75mph storm, gusts would probably reach 90-95mph. There would be little rain other than squalls, the heavy rain would be west of the track with much less surge and wind. Sandy was a huge sized storm which worsened the surge and it struck Atlantic City.
  13. jm1220
    If the trends continue at 12z I would at least extend the hurricane watch to Sandy Hook. West of the track won’t have anywhere near the wind impact of places east but the 30 mile difference in track to the west could bring it into NYC. Keep in mind also with the wet ground the wind will cause a ton of tree damage. Likewise with Isaias there was almost no rain over LI but lots of wind and tree damage. The talking point after wasn’t how NJ got 3-5” rain.
  14. jm1220
    I’d much rather be west of the center of this. No one talks about how the Jersey Shore, LI and NYC had less than 1” rain from Sandy and how DC got crushed by 6-8”. Starting to get concerned with these west trends. Hopefully those are done and it ticks back east. This won’t be a Sandy but east of the center could still be in for some really rough surge and wind.
  15. jm1220
    And yes HWRF shifted west pretty substantially. Last run it was over Marthas Vineyard.
  16. jm1220
    Concerning at this point but it does show a lot of weakening before striking. It would be a mid-grade tropical storm when it reaches here. Coastal flooding would be pretty bad but not horrendous. It would be known a lot more for rain. And that would have a big impact if this slowdown/hook is real.
  17. jm1220
    If this hook is real. someone SW of it 50 miles or so would get absolutely crushed by rain. It's like the 2/25/10 storm on steroids. And east of it would get a really nasty surge, maybe right into Providence. Hopefully it's wrong.
  18. jm1220
    Water temps are 75-76 now. Not much cooling from seabreezes. They only raise the humidity.
  19. jm1220
    Well it would permanently reduce the traffic on Rt 27 through Amagansett to Montauk at least.
  20. jm1220
    Looks like there's some kind of PRE/tropical moisture feed on the modeling that comes in via the upper low that could give us a soaking regardless of how close Henri comes (I guess unless it shunts way east). Euro has 1.5-3" rain for most of us.
  21. jm1220
    Carol took advantage of a mid level jet to charge it up as it headed north. Same with Sandy. This one wouldn’t have that advantage from what we can tell. It would spin around for a while and up well cooler water so it weakens. The models that bring it west slow it down also because it gets stuck under the ridge. A major hurricane (any hurricane really) has to be hauling as it gets up here. And there’s still a good chance at this lead time the interaction changes and it gets booted out to sea anyway. The threat to us at this point is still fairly low and even if it does hit it would likely weaken a lot before reaching us.
  22. jm1220
    If the storm does slow down as it comes up here and pivots around, it wouldn't make landfall as a hurricane. It would probably do so as a 50-60mph tropical storm that would be known for coastal flooding due to it likely expanding its size by then and rain. The 12z GFS panels show that kind of wind when it would make it up here. It would pull in lots of cooler water quick which would weaken it. The only way it would really maintain strength is if it moves N or NW fast into the area as it strengthened where waters are warm enough or it phases into the trough somehow which is how Sandy strengthened Perfect Storm 1991 style and pivoted NW. This is no 1938-redux or anything like that. It could be pretty disruptive but not catastrophic like Sandy. Those comparisons should be thrown out.
  23. jm1220
    Some serious heavy rain in central PA. Altoona airport reporting 2.16” rain in an hour. Feeder bands combining with upslope on the SE flow.
  24. jm1220
    It’s time to pay attention I think but minor changes in the high/low orientation will affect greatly how it tracks. Could easily shift back to out to sea if the upper high over E Canada weakens or the trough becomes more of a kicker.
  25. jm1220
    The WAR which makes almost every system go further west than expected up here.
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