jm1220

Your fingers to God’s keyboard! I have no freaking clue what’s going to happen with this. You would think with the upper air lows where they are it would be a great outcome for the vast majority of us.

Crazy. To be honest this dumbbell low might be worse north of us than down here. HRRR gets the goods into our area and S CT before it gets shunted to an extent by the fujiwara thing the lows do. But I really don’t know what to think with this. Also if you showed me the 700mb low track on the Euro I would think at least near NYC and east would get slammed. It takes a very nice track overall.

I usually would disregard the convection chasing to an extent but it already happened to the 1/9-10 storm this month. Even so it was a very nice event for most of us.

I'll be headed to Long Beach for the storm. I think I'm still good to see about a foot.

Yeah Riverhead went from about 2.1" at 0z to 1.5" now. Not sure what to think about it. Hopefully it's convective feedback of some kind. Who knows.

Honestly when you compare the 0z Euro to 12z, the precip amount in NYC is about the same. About 0.75 liquid for Central Park in both. For me it went from 1.2 or so to 1.0". The real ouch area seems to be in SNE where around Boston the precip was cut nearly in half. This dumbbell low outcome would hurt them most of all because the Fujiwara the lows have kinda shunts it east along with the poor upper air evolution it causes.

Still has 1” liquid for my backyard and .75 in NYC which could be 9-12” with ratios, which could be a little over the 10-1. It’s disappointing but not a disaster. Hopefully it comes back west at 18 or 0z. At that point it’ll be nowcasting. I have no clue if this’ll be real or not but since models are keying on it it may be to some extent. Usually by now they’d be losing it. This double barrel/dumbbell low is broadening and somewhat shearing everything out and causing it not to close off/consolidate. The convection from the eastern dumbbell low is robbing our low of moisture as well/ruining the inflow. We obviously don’t want this sheared out whatsoever. It would be loltastic if this caused a problem for the second coastal system in a row here when I remember it being overplayed almost always before this year.

Hopefully the RAP has a clue here. But it's obviously an outlier. UKMET definitely did come west again so that's good. GFS made some decent improvements aloft so I'd say we're hedging about even for 12z so far.

15z RAP which just came out. I have no idea how useful it is at this range-it's usually a short range model like the HRRR.

The Fujiwara thing the double barrel low does allows for heavy snow up to LI and maybe coastal NJ then it kinda dumbbells east. Hopefully we can get rid of that because the trough does look better and the close off is sooner.

Well at least this time you’d be somewhat prepared. Models keyed in on eastern Suffolk and MA/RI for quite a while.

Nassau/Suffolk line in that one was about 18”. My home town of Long Beach had about 15”. I had zero because I was living in Austin TX at the time.

Thanks as always Don. I think 1/27/15 has been the top analog to this storm for a while now. Very similar evolution by the looks of it. Maybe we can luck out and nudge the action a little west of where that ended up.

RGEM looks about the exact same to me from 6z. Any changes over the last 4 runs have been noise. So no further east shift there.

My call: Eastern 2/3 of Suffolk (roughly Rt 112 on east): 16-24". If there's an area that can get over 24" it would be around the William Floyd Parkway I think. This also includes CT east of New Haven (east of I-91). There too a lucky band can get someone over 24". West of Rt 112 to around the Van Wyck Expressway in Queens, SW CT, Jersey Shore: 10-16" NYC west of the Van Wyck, along to 20mi west of I-95 in E NJ, Rockland/Westchester: 6-10" West of there to the DE River in NJ, up to I-84 in NY: 3-6" NW of there: Under 3" I may be underestimating the cutoff to the west in which case the amounts in W NJ and upstate NY would be high but it looks like initial WAA snow should help and ratios should be good. Euro would have me go a little higher in the 10-16" area, maybe 14-18" but will wait on that and iffy especially if this double barreled low crap does happen. Overall a significant event near the city to major over LI and E CT.

I would relax over the NAM. Just like you can't dive in when it shows 20" west of NYC, you can't dive into it now. Let's see what other models show.

It went from a foot of snow for most of the area to complete out to sea in 1 run two days ago. It's a very delicate setup as others noted. If this double barrel low idea is overplayed or not real, it'll be better and more consolidated west. There's plenty of dynamics coming in to try to make that happen. The 6z was eye candy. I guess it's still possible but it was definitely an outlier. I'm much more encouraged by the Euro ticking west at 6z. 1" liquid to NYC and 1.5" almost to JFK.

The double barrel may or may not be accurate here. It may be a nowcast situation with that. But of course we’d want as little of that as possible so the low can consolidate west.

Not a surprise that the Nam ticked east. The 6z depiction to me was insane. But for LI, probably NYC too it changes nothing.

First pixie dust flakes here in Huntington Station. Fun times ahead!!

Yep. The one concern may be the dry slot getting close to eastern areas/the forks of the west trend continues. But mostly it’ll be about subsidence and heavy snow with the bands. There’ll be lucky and unlucky people as always.

If home for you is Long Island I’d say yes.

I think for at least Nassau and Suffolk they’ll be up soon or at least Upton’s next update. And amounts probably going up!

Wow at the Euro. Continues to tick slightly better evolution aloft. Looks very close to the Nam last night (not the probably overdone 6z). That would suggest 18” amounts are possible even in Nassau County and 12” to Manhattan.

RAP 9z. No I'm not posting the inflated Kuchera map. You can find that yourselves.