jm1220

From your keyboard to God's eyes...

NAM would be an annihilation if we saw another 2-3 panels.

Lots of Euro ensemble members west of the mean again that seem to go just SE of Montauk. I’m sure those members are bombs. 2-3 members skew the average to the east which go well SE of Cape Cod.

If the stall/capture happens in that spot yikes for us. But the consensus is still a good bit NE of there for it, closer to Cape Cod. My gut tells me it’ll take a lot of luck to spread the wealth well inland at least west of NYC but the Euro’s what you’d want to see for that to happen. Its tendency to over-amp these systems in recent years gives me some pause.

If you have 30-40mph+ winds, it breaks apart the flakes and lowers ratios. There’s usually a western most deformation band where ratios can be maxed but if winds are that high ratios can be cut down. 12 or 13-1 I can see but huge ratios won’t happen with strong winds.

This ain’t the fourth quarter. Maybe we’re getting close to halftime. “End of the beginning”? We have way too many battle scars from late shifts/fails on these to start calling it a win. And the other models largely still fringe NYC and have NW areas high and dry. Have to keep the trend going on the other models.

Kuchera shows 40” for Ocean City MD or close to that. Totally plausible!! Let’s get Roger Smith a beach cabin down there. Might take a century to get him dug out.

I would also dump any crazy Kuchera snow maps. Winds will lower ratios to 10-1, maybe slightly higher to like 12-1 especially near the coast. But where the banding happens will definitely produce big time. The “max” shown over DE is from the early closing off and maxing out lift from the closing off upper lows there but it’s way too early to pinpoint where that happens.

I just remember the problems it seems to have with overdoing/overamping these type of redeveloping storms. Hopefully this bias was fixed since Jan 2015 when we were burned west of Suffolk County. I’d really want the models like the GFS keep coming west to be confident in it.

I just wish this was 24hrs away not 84-96. We still can’t jump head first on this. Maybe weenie first. Lots of time for significant trends that would affect the outcome.

That’s the capture from the bombing upper air and surface lows catching up to each other. No question if that happens people will get 20”+ where the heavy snow banding can set up. There will be a behemoth moist fetch in the warm Conveyor belt coming into it as well being lifted over the cold air.

Looks perfectly fine to me for 90% of us, maybe not the well NW areas. Low really gets going a good bit E of NC but makes a sharp turn north with the bombing upper air low. Very nice phase but a bit delayed from last run. Not surprising since other models are still decently east of the Euro. Maybe some sort of compromise.

Part of the big time upside is that the surface low gets captured by the exploding upper air low and slows down for a few hours. There’ll be a window for the low to bomb and draw tropical moisture into the cold air from the much warmer than average Atlantic largely untouched by nor’easters so far this year. I definitely believe there can be 18-24” or higher totals if we see a bomb like the GGEM or Euro last night. It’s just where does that happen. Can this be a storm where it can make it west into NYC or is it reserved to eastern LI/New England? This can definitely be remembered as a big timer if the pieces come together.

Gun to my head, this looks to me at this point like a Juno-type outcome and we want the west trends to continue to really call it a storm for NYC. NW suburbs need some big help. Storms like these often tick east a little at the very end. We want the phasing to happen sooner. LI especially east of the William Floyd and CT east of I-91 is in a good spot. But we're still not even in NAM range with this yet so lots of time for significant changes.

I was gonna say, amazing how blah he thinks this'll be. I mean, my second story bedroom window might still be clear by the end of it.

There's still room for it to come west. The ridge axis out west isn't in a bad place, and there's room for the southern energy to be more consolidated and phase faster. GEFS also just came out and went west, with several members that would send the low over Cape Cod. We'd get buried even into NYC with those. No doubt 12z so far is going in a good direction.

Better interaction of the two waves and the system as a whole slowing down at our latitude. GFS/GGEM are getting there. But overall very encouraging.

It’s getting there but I wouldn’t be sweating what the Nam has to say at this range. It’s been known to change on a dime with these things. Any model which shows the southern wave eject faster is what we want.

I guess one consolation is even the flat GFS gave us a 3-5” snow event and 6” for the twin forks from the northern stream wave.

Yep. The key here is how much southern energy phases into our developing storm. Euro goes for all the marbles clearly. Some of those west members would change east of NYC over to rain.

Nice to look at the 0z Euro last night but have to look at it with skepticism until other models get on board. If we’re dragging and leaving behind energy in the SW, hard to see how it’s a significant event for most of us, except maybe eastern Suffolk. But if we do have a good phase it can be a monster. That still has to be resolved.

It trended somewhat better which is all we want to see at this point.

I think the lowest it could go is zero. Which everyone here should be prepared for if something like the GFS happens.

I’m pretty sure the “hold energy back” bias was fixed in its last upgrade but @bluewave would likely know better. It’s at least reason to be suspicious of the last GFS run but we have a few days to see what happens with all the different pieces.

The 18z Euro only goes out 84 hrs. The ensembles do go out to our storm timeframe though so I’ll be interested in that. I agree too much freaking out. Lots of pieces to this storm and we need them to cooperate. We need at least some southern stream involvement here, a solution where it hangs back that much wouldn’t work. But quite a ways to go. I wouldn’t lock into anything for another 48hrs at least.