jm1220

Good luck out there. I know it’s been atrocious for snow this winter in PA so hopefully this one can score for you guys.

Heavy snow with huge flakes. Street is covering fast.

Moderate snow. About an inch here I’d say. Slushy on paved surfaces.

Not surprisingly it’s rain in Long Beach with temp 37-38.

Sticking to cars, trees and cold paved surfaces. Street is wet.

There is up here, maybe a little more.

Snow picking up again here. Temp 33.

These models that show rain may also be a little too warm with surface temps. I'm a couple-few degrees colder than those models show. I would think that if we get heavier precip it would be snow. Whether it sticks or not is another question.

33 here, light snow with a coating.

FWIW the other hi-res models look pretty decent along with the HRRR/RAP. RGEM is a lot drier so it shows less cooling/less snow for near the city. FV3 looks atrocious but I think it's a short range GFS so not surprising.

Haven’t looked at the QPF but I’d assume it’s drier than Nam and therefore not as much dynamic cooling. We can see how tomorrow might take shape already. The city and immediate coast are stuck around 40. Once away from there it’s around freezing. It can get a couple degrees colder from wet bulbing down but the sun will warm it back up without the heavy snow keeping it cool.

We can hope. If the precip comes in like a heavy wall we’ll know the aggressive models were right. If scattered/light the GFS will be right. The heavy wall is how most of us can salvage some decent accums.

Fine by me honestly. The well inland areas in PA and NY are tremendously below average for snow this winter. They can have it.

Probably reasonable. The real questions will be how much we lose to rain/white rain, and how heavy the snow can come down to where it accumulates. This likely isn't one to be on the south shore or the city for. Wouldn't surprise me if Central Park ends with a T despite hours of snow falling. For where I am hopefully we can luck our way to 2" and get me over 30" for the winter. The best odds for a nice event are along I-84 down to the Tappan Zee, S CT and N NJ with some elevation.

Yep, models are trending that way. Not a surprise. Almost like clockwork last second north bump.

I-84 down to around White Plains/the CT coast/down to I-80 in NJ might be good spots for this. Models today are zooming in on that area for a heavy snow band for a while tomorrow. South of that there could be a subsidence area. Where the rates aren't heavy I doubt there's much accumulation. We'll have to see where this banding sets up.

It's really NAM or bust for anything decent near the city. RGEM wasn't too bad but even the 3k NAM backed off the amounts pretty big since 6z.

It takes into account the warm surface temps. This would be a gloppy 32-33 degree snow which would be significantly less than 10-1 ratio.

It’s probably GFS like with it being weak/scattered crap so it stays too warm.

It’ll be tough for this to be much of anything in the city, there I agree. But colder spots on LI and even most places outside the very densely populated/urban heat island might have a nice event if the more aggressive models are right. If it’s something weak like the GFS though Upton will be right. Even in April when the Sun angle is significantly worse we’ve seen snow accumulate well during the day if heavy enough.

Upton still not biting whatsoever. Has it as a rain snow mix for most, under 1" near the coast and 1-2" north of the city. I'm thinking that's about what it'll be unless it comes in as a heavy wall. If it's scattered/light to moderate it'll struggle to accumulate anywhere and might mix with rain.

GFS is broken up/disorganized with the precip while the NAM has a heavy snow axis for 6hrs or so along I-78 and into NYC/LI. The precip rate will matter too. If it's light broken up crud, it might just be rain or white rain. We need the heavy rates too.

I will say the other 0z meso models look decent for the Wed event as well. But this won't be anywhere near 10-1 ratios with the marginal at best temps and some will likely get wasted as white rain. But maybe this can be a half decent event that can sneak up on us outside the city. The city will probably have mostly white rain outside of the colder areas like Bayside/Whitestone unless it can come down heavily for a while. As for the squall line it split my area of course and there was a brief moderate shower.

If the snow comes down hard enough it’ll accumulate regardless of time of year. But no way it’s more than a lucky 5-6” somewhere and away from the city. And that’s if the 1-2% possibility happens that the Nam is right. More likely it’s the way other models have it where it’s maybe a slushy couple of inches.