jm1220

Once this cutoff is finally gone and we can establish westerly flow, we’re probably off to the races into summer. However we still have to watch how much of a trough lingers over the Maritimes. If that stays, high pressure will build to our NE and promote more back door fronts nearby.

Models bumping back south for the upcoming rain. I-84 corridor may be dry for the most part. Crazy that in early May we’re still dealing with strong confluence and dry air brick walls. This would be a 20” storm easy south of the brick wall if it was 2 months ago. Now it’s just wind driven cold misery.

The cutoff is slowed down a lot on the latest guidance as Bluewave pointed out. It ruins at least into Sun and likely keeps clouds/cool maritime air into Mon.

Really hoping it's somehow wrong. It has days of easterly garbage around the cutoff low vomited into our region but a nice warmup for NNE, maybe even north of there. Unfortunately it has support.

And it will generally stay that way until the trough NE of us/blocking can finally go away. On the latest Euro there's an easterly component to the wind essentially through the entire run. Maritime garbage on top of trash.

Crappy NE back door flow days don’t lend themselves to many posts. Unfortunately the writing was on the wall for this one. It’s been a feature of the last several Nina springs.

The storm probably washed away the pollen/allergens. Agree, hopefully that continues at least.

Yeah that trough over the Maritimes needs to be gone. Pronto. We’re likely below average until then.

For NJ it might not be too bad. East of the city these back door patterns are often raw and full of stratus. Hopefully not. And hopefully it can be short lived and the blocking is over done.

Looks like 2” for LGA and Central Park. Some of the short range models were showing a 2” area there and there was a local heavy rain band that parked overhead. Winds also gusted >50 over LI.

12” reported near BGM. If this was a month earlier there would be widespread 2 feet in upstate NY. As is there will probably be a decent number of 15” reports near where that crazy deform band parked. This is another example of how coastal storms mature later now. Heavy amounts in NE PA near the Poconos and upstate NY but not back into Central PA. It dryslots there too soon in these storms and the deform band forms too late/east. There are likely 6” or so amounts in high elevations there. Also some bad luck with it falling during daylight.

State College may have 30" for the season with this storm. Don't know how much they have yet from today but that's very lousy once again. The inland runners that do happen like today blow up too late now for central PA. 3/14/17 was good in central PA but was best in the Poconos and upstate NY. Once again with my 31.5" here I win. Could've been significantly better if we had the blocking coming up in Feb instead.

NE PA/Southern Tier of NY will get crushed later by that developing CCB. That’s good lord type intensity headed there, and at night so it’ll pile up. There’ll likely be a swath of 10-12” up there.

State College’s snow average was ahead of Boston by several inches in the 1981-2010 averages and went several inches behind with the new 1991-2020. Shows how cruddy it’s become there during our bonanza. They get the occasional good season still but no doubt something climactic has shifted to favoring these big coastal storms vs inland/huggers.

Don’t be. I’d rather be here for snow for the last 10 winters generally than anywhere in central PA other than orographically favored places. It’s a lousy place to live if you want major snow events.

Very nice event out in central PA for a change, too bad it had to come so late in the season. Hopefully the developing CCB can hold in heavy snow for a while. That’ll determine who can pile up to warning totals vs advisory. It’s always annoying when you’re snowing heavy and the dryslot comes in to shut it off after 3 hours which is a very frequent problem in PA.

Yep, whenever you see those troughs developing over the Maritimes this time of year you know what’s coming. Blocking at the worst possible time once again.

Didn’t miss much. Here it was a brief moderate shower amongst drops here and there.

36" now just N of Minot.

Insane temp gradient right on the Sound. Huntington Bay is at 56 but a mile or two away in Centerport is 76.

Happens all the time in places like Long Beach. It finally warms up this time of year after the cold front passes and winds come from the land. So there it’s actually a warm front.

We’re nowhere near the back door for once. It’s well NE around the MA/CT border.

Eatons Neck at 53. Ouch.

77 here-summer like. Stuck at 57 just a few miles away on the Sound and also at Captree.

Yep, 70 now. Gorgeous here.