jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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15z RAP looks very nice but is probably too cold. Has 5" all the way down to PHL.
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GFS 12z looks pretty good to me at least I-78 on north. RGEM didn't really change as others said. So as far as I can see we're still on track around NYC. We definitely do still have to be careful though and not lock anything in since there's still time for a 50 or so mile N bump that would make it a lousy rain/sleet event south of the Hudson Valley/CT. There really isn't much room for error for most of the subforum.
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3z RAP that goes out to 51hr looks very cold. Colder than any model I've seen-even Philly has a couple inches on the 10-1 map.
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GGEM is colder than 12z but also a little drier. Accums get down to the northern Philly suburbs. Also less of a front end thump like look so eventually it does get warm enough for the city to change to rain or non-snow. Light precip lingers into Tue morning.
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In general it looked about the same to me as last run. Looks like a good front end burst then we see how far north the sleet line for north shore/rain for south shore makes it.
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Exactly, rug could still get pulled and this trends back north at the last minute.
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Certainly got a little colder but also dry compared to other models. Has even some accumulation down to Philly.
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Yes part of it is surface temps due to ESE winds off the ocean. The temp in northern NYC and North Shore is around 33 at 5z Tue, at JFK it's 37. That could be all the difference.
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FWIW, the 0z HRRR which goes out to 48hrs looks pretty cold and there's snow down to Philly-Reading.
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Looks maybe very slightly colder than 18z. Very big north shore/south shore difference. I get 4" (using 10-1, in reality it's probably 3"), the barrier islands maybe an inch. Which I can believe-ESE winds are no good any time of the year for snow there but especially when we have such a marginal airmass.
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Someone became the turd in the punchbowl. And like SnoSki said it's been as depressing a winter as we've ever experienced here. The Hollywood Sign has more snow than NYC at this point and it's not even an exaggeration. If maybe somehow we manage a few inches (tons of ways a SWFE can turn right back around and be a washout here) it's no skin off your teeth and you'll probably end up with about the same. Boo-hoo.
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Don't you dare lol.
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From your lips to God's ears.
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Go by soundings. If you’re using Pivotal you can click on your town at a specific hour and see the sounding.
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Looks like they're leaning towards advisory for the immediate N suburbs and N from there. Based on today it should probably be one tier south to include the N shore and N parts of the city. There could be a pretty big difference between the south and north shores in this one because we have an ESE surface wind. The ocean is the coldest it gets all year but it still makes a difference in these marginal setups.
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RGEM would be 3-5" if the city can stay all snow. Maybe 2-4" because ratios might be under 10-1. This winter it might as well be 24".
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I’ll take anything, seriously. Sleet is annoying but at least it lasts a while. I just don’t want the sleet/snow for 30 minutes to a washout it was looking like and could still end up if the GFS/NAM end up right.
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We’ll see. I’m in a better place than most of the city and definitely south shore but it’s not worth a ton. If the WAA isn’t too intense maybe we can stay snow. Stronger WAA means more precip but also more sleet/rain. I’ll gladly take a few inches if it means we can stay snow. Rather that than heavy precip that flips to rain like everything else.
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Try 10x. 4” would be 10x Central Park’s total.
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Yep, the way it gets NYC so cold for the event is that the S/W dampens out and gets chewed up between the block and SE ridge. A stronger S/W and therefore more precip would mean a further north/warm outcome because there would be more WAA. So if somehow we do get mostly snow there's a hard ceiling on what we can expect. Our ceiling is probably a 2-4, 3-5" type event. And other models disagree and have it warmer so we'll have to see where it trends over the next day. You're right that sleetfest is probably the most likely outcome right now near the city.
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So far here it was a brief burst of flurries that didn’t even accumulate from what I see, so another trace and from here it looks like we’re stuck in a virga hole. But good for those who do have snow on the ground.
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Wow, sucks for them. I said “golden unless there’s a major change in the evolution”, looks like the major change is happening. The storm just kinda dies out as it keeps going east into the confluence because the shortwave peters out, and there’s no phasing/interaction to deepen a coastal low. But hey, good for us then. We have less than 1” for most in this sub forum. I wouldn’t expect anything major near the coast but a nice 2-4” or 3-6” type plowable event would be a godsend this winter. “Golden” has shifted to interior CT and Hudson Valley lol.
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Wouldn’t mind a sleet fest actually. At least that accumulates and it takes longer for it to melt.
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I mean we can't actually have a winter where the Hollywood Sign ends with more snow than Central Park, right?
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Because of the fast moving/progressive pattern and -PNA which encourages the SE ridge. We have transient blocking for the Mon event but we still have to deal with a 980s mb low moving into Ontario. We don’t have a pattern that reinforces cold air here so we get these one or two day things that then go right back to prolonged warmth.
