jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Pouring here now.
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There’s an outflow boundary pushing east that’s firing storms behind it into Nassau now. We’ll see if it can make it over the border. Same here-Lloyd Harbor/Caumsett getting dumped on, nothing IMBY.
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Back to the July garbage pattern.
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85/77. Absolute sauna once again.
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Today felt like an absolute sauna. Disgusting.
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Yup, troughy onshore flow won’t do it for any heat waves around here. Idalia remnants a fly in that ointment.
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We had plenty of blocking last “winter”. The PNA/PDO were so insanely negative it didn’t matter. Nina shouldn’t mean snow/rain bonanzas in California.
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The difference here is that models seem to have this heat coming in on a W or NW wind which downslope heats us up vs the high humidity heat on S winds. Those are the heat waves that can get us over 95 even near the coast when the sea breeze is held back. It's late in the season but no reason we can't get over 95 when areas of the Dakotas, Minnesota etc were just well into the 90s to 100.
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Just about cleared out here.
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Heading towards the Gulf Half-a-canes we used to see before Michael, looks like dry air eroding the east side. It’s probably a 120mph storm at this point. Thankfully it’s hitting a sparsely populated area for the worst surge but the inland effects will be pretty serious with the winds.
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The water vapor loop doesn’t show any exceptionally dry air around and even if so, without shear to direct it into the core it would probably stay separated. It also makes sense that with air rising fast inside the hurricane it would sink/dry up away from it. The NW side looks “inhibited” because the outflow/ventilation channel is to its NE. It’s not a sign of shear knocking away at the storm.
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Pure hell out there. Austin hit 110 earlier this month and 107 today. By far their longest 100+ stretch and second longest 105+ stretch on record.
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About 0.55” here.
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Yup, complete turnaround from a month ago. Mushrooms now popping up on my back lawn.
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About 2” here total. For once the north shore got the brunt of it. Crazy how yet again the south fork got hit hard.
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Most models have 2 heavy rain areas-one that goes into UNY and well north of us with the mid level warm front and one further south with the surface warm front. Hopefully the same areas that got slammed in July don't again. The large heavy rain area is probably associated with the mid level warm front and will go north of most of us. HRRR develops more heavy rain east of where that line is in central PA and that would be I-78 to I-80 and NYC/LI's shot with the surface warm front. But if that front goes a little north so will the heavy rain. The higher CAPE is south of the front and where the severe threat would be.
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Warm front nearby. Where that front sets up will be where the heaviest rain happens. Models have it near/over LI, so my area into central NJ might actually be the jackpot this time. If the front shifts north so does the heaviest rain. Somebody will definitely get soaked overnight. The Aug 2014 monsoon over Suffolk County was from one of these warm fronts in a very moist environment.
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Can we have a horse brought behind the barn and shotgun emoji for the NAM’s?
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Was in Long Beach for the overnight storm. Lots of vivid lightning and torrential rain, not much wind. From that and some other showers about 1” yesterday.
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Brief shower here. 0.05” maybe.
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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23
jm1220 replied to BxEngine's topic in New York City Metro
And we probably go right back to Perma-Nina after this Nino, so if this one coming up sucks, the next one probably will too unless that Nina can be east-based. The 97-98 Nino went into a strong Nina the year after. I’m not convinced yet that we’re doomed to snowless winters permanently. We were due for a slump after the bonanza winters after 2000 that raised Central Park’s average to 30”. The all or nothings from one or two big ones may be a permanent change, can’t get a 3-6” clipper or fast mover for nothing anymore. -
Insane how the S Fork has done so well this summer. They’re almost always the dry spot in the marine influence while up here toward the city gets more near the sea breeze fronts. I had maybe 0.3 or so here.
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Over 2” on the south fork. Crazy how much better they’ve been doing vs rest of the island. JFK and ISP had only near 0.25”.
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Nothing wrong with it. Barrier islands did well with the last round of showers, so they’ll be over 0.6-0.7”. LI is either still in a drought or abnormally dry as of this AM so yes, we still need it.
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Up to about 0.3” here, maybe a little more. I don’t see any LI location with over about 0.45” per radar estimate. SW Nassau/near Queens has the most. Southern half of the island is mostly 0.25 or under.
