Upstate Tiger

Good stuff Grit.

Surprised early next week is not generating a little more discussion. At least fun to have something to keep an eye on before Thanksgiving! In these parts that's a rare thing.... From GSP AFD: A reinforcing short wave is currently depicted by long range models help deepen a long wave trough over the Central U.S. early next week. Surface low pressure is expected to develop along the tail end of a stalled front along the northern Gulf of Mexico and ride northeastward somewhere into the Southeast US in advance of the deepening trough over the Central US. This setup can be favorable for winter weather across portions of the FA (especially mtns). However, it will still only be mid November and cold enough air for wintry precipitation can be difficult to come by. As of now increasing precipitation early next week looks to be mainly in liquid form except for possibly the highest mountain elevations. The unsettled weather will likely support below normal temps early next week with even colder conditions possible in the wake of this storm system just beyond the current seven day forecast.

From the GSP AFD......Well that escalated quickly considering where we were just 10 days ago. Of course it is late October so not all that unusual for the mountains. Sure would have been nice to have this Miller A in January. What a classic set up. There may be just enough cold air at the highest elevations to mix with or turn to snow at times, especially at the beginning and end of the event. Little or no accumulations are expected through Saturday.

It’s actually not unusual to have a Gulf landfalling hurricane impact upstate SC. 10 years ago when I worked for Greenville County we were working on our Hazard Vulnerabilty Assessment and we looked at the impacts of hurricanes on the upstate. Using historical data from the NWS we studied every named tropical system that had passed within 50 miles of downtown Greenville, SC. Amazingly almost all were from Gulf landfalling hurricanes. Very few were Atlantic landfalling hurricanes. That probably does not hold true for NC but for the upstate of SC, Gulf hurricanes have presented the greatest threat. Of course, to your point, I would bet few if any were still TS when they passed near Greenville.

GSP has nice AFD on Michael In terms of the winds, being that Michael has made landfall as a category four storm, there is some concern that the traditional model guidance may be spinning the storm down too quickly, thus under-doing the inland winds. This is always a very tough forecast, and the Tropical Storm Warning that was issued earlier for our southern tier of zones was mainly done to accommodate the tropical storm wind probability info from NHC. The other wind-related concern is the potential for hybrid convective gusts associated with any intense rain bands, which could easily produce occasional 50 mph (or greater) winds. Thus, while our official forecast doesn`t really support the headlines, the uncertainty regarding the intensity of the cyclone and the potential for occasional higher end wind gusts warrants continuation of the Tropical Storm Warning. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Snow pack is building nicely over the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains in the next week or so. Models hinting at some moderation in temps in the Southeast around the 15th. Hope that doesn't get pushed back. Ready for some fall temps. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

Yep, it's the 3rd year in a row without traditional "fall", at least so far. In 2016 we had the warm fall and all the forest fires, 2017 was just plain warm until the 2nd week of November and this year has also been above average to date. Maybe see a cool down after next week. Highs in the 30's are starting to show up later this week in Montana and Wyoming.

53 Degrees at 06:40 this morning in Cherry Vegas. Won't be long til there is frost on the pumpkin!

If we had the pattern we're having now back in January or February, we 'd be talking one epic month for many on this board! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml

Here's the latest GSP AFD regarding this weekend's threat. Interesting that someone mentioned how it seems to snow a lot during the ACC tournament. I am 53 and it seemed like there was a lot of ice or snow at the ACC tournament every year when it was in Greensboro in the 70's and 80's. Maybe just my feeble memory but sure seemed like there was a WSW about every year when the tournament rolled around. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 245 PM EST Monday: The fcst for the weekend sure looks interesting. After a break in the action Friday with flat upper ridging and high pressure moving across the southeast, moisture will begin to return from the Gulf and will spread across the region Friday night ahead of a weak surface low. Isentropic upglide may force the development of light precip overnight, and that is fcst to improve on Saturday as the sfc low organizes to the west. Precip prob rises into the likely range over the mtns by the end of the day, and keeps improving from there. The high precip chances continue Saturday night with the sfc low passing to the south Sunday morning while a deepening upper low approaches from the WNW. On that track, any severe weather chances would be confined to the coastal plain. Heavy rain might be a concern, but it is too early to mention in the HWO. Temps will rise back above normal at least on Saturday and into Sunday morning. The interesting stuff happens in the operational guidance on Sunday, with both models bringing the center of the upper low down across our region late in the day and off to the east Sunday night. The upper low center would be accompanied by very cold air aloft, also meaning very cold mid-level thickness and very steep lapse rates. Precip would/could change over to snow over the mtns early in the day, and then possibly change over to snow outside the mtns around sunset Sunday evening as the very cold air aloft moves overhead. The track and strength of the upper low is key. We have seen March snow events like this in the past, when a cold upper low moves directly overhead. That said, it is far too early to make significant changes to the fcst at this time, without seeing a few cycles of the GEFS, but a trend in a cooler direction will be started. So, for now, we will keep this idea on a back burner. Precip will stay mainly rain apart from the very highest elevations and temps will remain on the warm side. Stay tuned, though. Precip should taper off to the TN border area on Monday with more NW flow as the upper low goes on to induce another major sfc low offshore.

I was just kidding but I had a co worker once who said in November that his deer hunting wasn’t going well because the time had changed and the deer were confused. He was a S.C. graduate.

From GSP's Mid Range Forecast Discussion this morning..... Max Temps near normal Friday through Sunday then a couple degrees below normal Monday. It is interesting that the GFS gives our area a snowstorm late next week, but EC has us dry and warmer. Low chance of GFS being right. ......So you're saying there's a chance

Let me go ahead and get this out of the way now regarding next week's potential........the sun angle is too high, the soil temp is too warm, the warm nose is too strong, there will be a dry slot, gulf thunderstorms will rob the moisture, no chance for anyone outside the mountains, and oh yeah the time changes next week so it will be daylight longer. Did I miss any?

You can count on two things tanking every spring. One is Clemson basketball and the other is the NAO..... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml

It's hard to believe how bad the NAO has been this winter. Geez, this is ugly.... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml

Looks like a lot of uncertainty in the long range based on the language from GSP discussion. As others have said, what looked like a period of below normal temps and chances for winter storms seems somewhat in jeopardy. However, that doesn't mean the SE can't score a winter storm. The famous President's Day storm of 79 was sandwiched between two periods of above average temps... ome controversy over when the front will clear the area has materialized with the 00Z model cycle...with the GFS carrying a clean frontal passage and the ECMWF now lingering the back edge of the precip across the area through 12Z Thursday. Anyhow, clearing after 12Z Thursday is likely as another surface high is able to work its way into the forecast area. Very glad the forecast doesn`t extend past next Friday as the model disagreement even in just the upper pattern is significant. Temperatures will be near average Tuesday, well above average Wednesday ahead of the approaching front, and near to just below average again on Thursday as the front exits the area.

Link below to GSP forecast discussion for those interested. Pretty similar to RAH with "lots of uncertainty" language which is to be expected. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

GSP's AFD regarding this weekend....the discussion doesn't specify but I assume it includes model input from the EURO as well. Behind the front into Saturday, cool/dry high pressure will keep pops below mentionable levels through the day as the high slowly transitions eastward. Overnight into Sunday, the split flow regime becomes increasingly active as a potent clipper works through the southern Great lakes region, and warmer/moist air advects northward out of the Gulf/Atl across the southeast. With that, a digging shortwave is progged to move through the mean trof out of the plains and into the Midsouth region leading to surface cyclogenesis which will work to enhance moisture advection further. Meanwhile, the aforementioned migrating surface ridge will have setup over the western Atl leading to the possibility of a brief CAD window. This entire complex shifts east through the fcst area Sunday night into Monday, while guidance progs another fast moving clipper wave surging in behind Monday afternoon, although it should be noted that this second wave has trended drier. All said, uncertainty is high at this range as the eventual impacts of this system will be highly dependent on timing of both the upper features for forcing and moisture advection, as well as any CAD regime that may or may not develop to modify the profiles in the low levels. Thus, for now will just broadly highlight rain/snow for wx with temperatures holding at just below normal levels.

Yep.....a couple of gulf lows with cold air in North America over the next 10 days. There are definitely some possibilities. A little blocking would do wonders.

I don't understand all the wailing and gnashing of teeth on here right now. We are at our below average the next 10 days after this weekend. There is also a potential threat showing up for next weekend and the indices look even better after that. It turned cold the second week of November and except for a few brief warmups it has been cold since then. We have had a 3" snow before Christmas and a 5" snow in January plus a number of morning with single digit lows IMBY. I have been closely following winters for 41 of my 53 years here in the SE and this one has been a good one by SE standards. Even "great" winters here in the SE are usually front, middle or back loaded. We still have possibilities heading into Feb. It is quite unusual for us in the SE to go multiple months with threats of winter weather. Enjoy it folks, it's a rare thing.

He was one of the very few I remember nailing December and January. I wouldn't discount it....

As others have alluded to, maybe we are finally starting to see the worm turn in regards to the NAO. Outside of us getting a widespread SE big dog, it has been a rather remarkable winter so far. It went BN in November and has remained BN so far through January. Add in the Pre Christmas snow and the beach snowstorm plus 7 days IMBY below freezing and it has been an interesting couple of months. I would like to see a widespread SE winter storm since we have not seen one of those in a while. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml

Today I was driving north up 85 from Gastonia to Mt. Holly and when I crossed the first river on 85 past Gastonia (think it is South Fork River, I'm still new to NC) the river was completely frozen below. I am sure it was a thin layer of ice. Nevertheless, I can't imagine that's happened often in the past.

THIS

Some have stated that we don't see snow in the SE when there is extreme cold. That is not entirely true. In the current case, the trough axis is a little too far east. Only a small change in the downstream pattern would change the fortunes of many on this board. In the meantime, I offer you this historical perspective regarding extreme cold and snow in the SE: Coldest month on record at GSP was January 1977; average temp. was 30.7 degrees F; measurable snow was recorded on the 3rd, 9th and 24th; Freezing rain on the 14th; coldest week was the famous cold snap of the 16th, 17th and 18th; the high temperature recorded for the entire month was 50 F and it occurred briefly on one day; Oddly enough no daily low temp records were broken in January of 77!