Upstate Tiger

Could be headed for our second below average November. The November average at KGSP is 52.4 degress F. November 2018 had an average of 47.8 degrees. So far in 2019, we are averaging 47.7. BTW... the record November low at KGSP is 11 degrees set on consecutive days in 1950. The lowest monthly average was 43.2 in 1901. https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=gsp

As always great job! Well researched and supported forecast. Hope it comes to fruition as your data suggests.

What are we? A bunch of Johnny Come Late-lies??

Just saw live report from Denver. 610 EDT and it 12 degrees and snowing in Denver. Pretty impressive for late October. They will break record lows and record maximum next couple of days.

Not as good as Eyewalls. Camped at Black Mountain campground last night. Really good color near Mt Mitchell.

“Did I say nipply?”

As someone else, said "what a difference a couple of weeks makes." After this week's cool shot, looks some more cooler weather next week and around Halloween plus some rain opportunities too. Love seeing the "Below Average Temp. Forecast" for the SE. I'll take it after that brutal September!!! https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

Seeing some highs in the upper 20's this week in the northern Rockies and northern plains for the first time this fall. Hopefully the we see a flip in the troughing and the death of the SER soon.

We arrived yesterday for our first OBX trip and this had just occurred. Very very sad https://www.wbtv.com/2019/10/02/national-weather-service-official-drowns-while-swimming-outer-banks/

GRRRRRR!!!! After tomorrow, about all we could hope for over the next 10 days is a back door cold front or CAD. For Friday September 27 - Thursday October 03: Analysis of today's mean 00Z 500-hPa height field during Week-2 depicts much better agreement between the ECMWF and GEFS models compared to earlier this week. Both models suggest an amplification of the upper-level pattern, with anomalous positive heights centered over the northeastern Pacific Ocean, an expansion of anomalous negative heights over the western CONUS, and stronger anomalous positive heights over the central and eastern CONUS. Over parts of the Northeast and eastern Maritime Canada, some disagreement is evident in the model guidance, with the GEFS showing a stronger negative height field extending into the central Atlantic.

Starting to feel like fall of 2016. Hope we don't start seeing the wildfires like we had that year. Remember the all the smokey days?

Yeah that was a warm one. I remember some brutal JV football practices in August. Winter of 80/81 was one of my least favorite growing up in 70’s/80’s. From 76/77 thru 87/88 we had good winters with some good storms except one: 80/81. We had 1” of snow in January, a minor ice storm and sleet storm on April 1. That winter was a bad anomaly back then. Today that would be epic lol

What a suck fest this month is turning out to be. I would just settle for 80's! Good grief....as someone stated above, this pattern is bad for upcoming leaf season too. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

For those interested.....as expected Chris Justus named WYFF Chief Meteorologist to replace JC.

Saw this earlier. End of an era. Ran into him at a Clemson football game shortly after he came to upstate in 1991. Super nice and humble guy. Us older posters remember that John replaced Charlie Gertz. Charlie was also a true weather nerd. Charlie was also also around for some epic weather in the 80s: Hugo, 87 and 88 snowstorms, 85 cold outbreak and many snowstorms. I guess the highlight for John would be the super storm of 93, ice storms of 2004 and 2005, hurricanes of 2005? He never overhyped anything and was generally right.

Falls you are correct! When I said mid month, I meant to specify mid September. Occasionally we have had cool downs before Mid September but they are rare. As you said, we can at least start looking to the Northern Rockies and Canada for some cooler air to start showing up there in a couple of weeks. Even in the record breaking cold of the 76/77 winter I do not remember it being particularly cool in September. In fact, I remember August 1976 football practice being very hot and it being hot for our games in September. October of that year, however, it turned quite cool.

Yes but with so much of the country AN to our north and west, it won’t make much difference for us unfortunately. Not a big deal really. We really don’t start seeing any relief in the SE until after mid month anyway

CPC out this afternoon with 14 day outlook and is not good if you want a cool down. Large are of central and eastern US in the deep reds. They are favoring the European with strong ridging versus GFS and troughiness. Since the heat always verifies in the long range and long range cold is like pixie dust, I am sure the heat will verify. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

Has anyone else had trouble accessing KGSP AFD? It has not been updated since Wednesday evening....

Snowing in Gastonia. Large flakes.

"Do not seek the treasure!"

You know this season seemed to have so much promise. We seemed to have all the right players in place. Most of the experts predicted a rockin January, February and even March. After sitting pretty during the first week in December, the season never seemed to get back on track. We were told things would turn around in January. Then we were told things would turn around in February. Finally, we were told that March would be our month. Mercifully, NC State ended the Clemson basketball season today!

You guys better watch it or Burns will put you on Double Secret Probation.

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor????

Not good trends today for sure but still far from being settled. Below is long term AFD from GSP: At the surface, a low pressure system develops to our west on Sunday in response to the digging trough. Moisture and precip spread back into the area as the low moves east. However, the ECMWF is stronger, wetter, and farther north with the surface low. Therefore, it shows little in the way of wintry precip until the low pulls away on Monday with some brief NW flow type snow for the mountains. The thermal profiles suggest more of a mixed p-type scenario if enough low level cold air could move in Sunday night. The GFS still has widespread precip but is also colder with the low track closer to the Gulf Coast. That said, the cold air doesn`t move in until the back side of the low keeping any wintry precip confined mainly to the mountains, with some spillage out across the I-40 corridor Sunday night and again Monday night as the low is departing. The GFS indicates a potential mixed p-type problem initially turning to a rain or snow scenario as the colder air moves in. The GFS ensemble mean shows a rain or snow scenario with up to an inch of snow outside of the mountains with up to 4 inches across the mountains, but there is a wide spread in individual members across the area. Given the above problems, have limited any p-type concerns to rain or snow, but this is subject to change as the event approaches. Also, limited PoP to the chance range for any one period. The models also show a lingering inverted surface trough across the area for Tuesday. The ECMWF is dry while the GFS has light precip over the area in response. I have kept the forecast dry for now given the uncertainty. Model blend temps have come in warmer through the period, but blended with the previous forecast to avoid some big changes in the forecast. The warmer temps would limit the amount of wintry precip outside of the mountains as well. However, there are good indications of a cooling trend through the period.