Upstate Tiger

For those discounting NAM, do so at your own peril. Many times I’ve seen it out perform globals on SE winter storms. Feb 2014 is just one example. While European and others were calling for a snow apocalypse, NAM was screaming “the profiles are gong to be too warm for many”. It was exactly right. I am hoping it is right this time by forecasting the opposite.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml Let me save you the trouble of clicking: NAO - Not suitable for small children AO - Don't look Ethel....at lease moving toward 0 after this week PNA - See AO Given the horrific indices this winter, it's amazing we have gotten any frozen precip. at all in the SE.

I'll start a thread tomorrow....

As crazy as this month has been already, who knows??? It is possible we could time up a winter storm on the backside of one of these monsoons since there is cold air in NA, albeit on the wrong side of the continent.

Congrats to all our peeps in GA and S.C. that scored today, especially the NW corner. Who knew northern GA was the place to be for snow in the SE. For the rest of us we better hope we can squeeze out a surprise this upcoming weekend. Looks like the western trough and SE ridge come back with a vengeance the following week.

I feel bad for the younger posters. I was born in the 60’s and I would say from about 62 to 88 winters like 09/10 were the rule not the exception. In fact I remember snow on the ground in the upstate most of January in 77,78, 79, 82, 87, 88 and 80 and 83 were epic late season. We also had at least one single digit cold outbreak each winter. The last comparable winters to that were 09/10 and 10/11 in terms of multiple events. I guess 13 and 14 had a few events also. Sure miss the parade of Miller A’s each winter.

That's one crazy wind field. If that happens, better get your generator ready.....

Yep, the real cold is still locked up in Canada during this time. If the GFS is to be trusted, it shows a pretty good push of cold air south from Canada but not until the after this storm has passed. Still, something to keep an eye on as well as the following week (1st week of Feb.) with cold on the move.

Yeah right....I stand a better chance of seeing us beat the Tarheels in Chapel Hill than ever seeing a storm like that again.

Wow, posters on here are like Clemson defensive backs this morning....no where to be found! Surprising given the potential. Headed to Asheville this weekend, may see some token winter precip. early Saturday.

Awesome! Thanks for clarifying

Grit, Great stuff. Question, are the MJO plots/forecast based on ops/ensembles model data or actual obs? Reason I ask is that you referenced last Feb. I don’t recall the models giving us a sniff last Feb. or is my memory flawed?

LOL. I’m supposed to fly to Milwaukee for a business trip on the 28th. Might need to pack a jacket.

Super cold air in Canada over the next 10 days. While heights certainly rise over the west after next weekend, that negative PNA is hanging in there like a hair on a biscuit. At least there are some signs of a pattern change. Hopefully we see some solid model evidence in the next few days.

Good post Q. The cold coming east after the 16th or so is being pretty consistently modeled. Have no chance at significant winter storm in the SE without cold in the eastern half. Pretty frustrating seeing Portland getting ready for potential winter storms over the next 7 days when their annual average snowfall is 3".

Interesting map. Would love to see the same map for 70-79 and 80-89.

Yep. That PNA is a dagger for our part of the country. Like last Saturday night when the Tigers were down 16 to nothing, I am not quite ready to throw in the towel but we need a momentum changer before halftime. Maybe the winter referee is getting ready to call a targeting penalty or an overturned call from the booth would help too!

Right on que, winter officially arrives along with a positive NAO. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml

Just saw live report from Denver. 610 EDT and it 12 degrees and snowing in Denver. Pretty impressive for late October. They will break record lows and record maximum next couple of days.

We arrived yesterday for our first OBX trip and this had just occurred. Very very sad https://www.wbtv.com/2019/10/02/national-weather-service-official-drowns-while-swimming-outer-banks/

For those interested.....as expected Chris Justus named WYFF Chief Meteorologist to replace JC.

Saw this earlier. End of an era. Ran into him at a Clemson football game shortly after he came to upstate in 1991. Super nice and humble guy. Us older posters remember that John replaced Charlie Gertz. Charlie was also a true weather nerd. Charlie was also also around for some epic weather in the 80s: Hugo, 87 and 88 snowstorms, 85 cold outbreak and many snowstorms. I guess the highlight for John would be the super storm of 93, ice storms of 2004 and 2005, hurricanes of 2005? He never overhyped anything and was generally right.

Well I just renewed my American Weather subscription for another year. If I don't get any snow by the end of March, can I get a refund?

For those interested, here is the AFD from KGSP: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Yep! They have a difficult job covering three different geographical areas and they are the best IMO. Just look at the complexity of this one event....