Upstate Tiger

NCPC mentioned this in today’s 7-14 day hazard outlook.

Disappointed this isn’t our storm but glad to see a good ol fashion nor’easter. Reading grits comments and comments from other Mets today, hopefully this is a repeating pattern that resumes after a Christmas week lull. At some some point we’ll cash in if that’s the predominant storm track.

Uh oh. We have a Burrel siting. Winnies will be on full alert now.

Wife and I heading up there too! Staying til Tuesday luckily. Hopefully see some snow.

Grit....good stuff as usual. Unfortunately, I think the science and your experience probably support your forecast becoming reality. Like you said, those winters weren't complete shut outs....

Made it to Bryson City yesterday. Had to dodge lots of downed trees and branches close to home but other than scattered power outages up here, not much sign of damage once we got off 74 onto 26. Turned out to be great afternoon for train ride? Great horseback ride today.

Just lost power here in Cherryville. Winds sustained at 25. Had pre-booked a trip to Bryson City back in the summer to ride the train and look at leaves. Supposed to depart at 230 today. Called them to see if it’s still on.....the lady said we’ve never canceled for weather. Guess we’re going to BC! We do have a waterfall horseback ride scheduled for tomorrow. Should be a perfect day to ride. Everyone be safe!

First truly arctic air making an appearance across the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains later this week. Highs in the low teens...... Didn't Mack move to Iowa? Looks like he could see some cold days as well.

UUUggghhh! Bermuda high re-establishes next week. Hope this is not a permanent fixture this winter. Unfortunately, they can be for La Nina. Good news is ridge looks to hold over the west for the next two weeks. Lack of west coast ridge has killed us last couple of years.... https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

You forgot that "if there is frost on a cloudy morning the sunrise will not be visible that day."

Grit, That was my first winter here in NC. We had a decent little snow before Christmas. January saw a good snow and almost a week where it didn't get above freezing. I would take a repeat of that winter and be thrilled.

Wow...Joe B going bleak for winter in the U.S. That's about as rare as a SE snowstorm. Too bad we can't rely on folklore. We've had multiple foggy days in August so far. Old people (the age I am now) used to say the more foggy days in August, the more snow in the winter.

Hey, I am one of those old men. I was just telling my grandson the other day about one of our epic winters of the past. He looked at me skeptically and said "Sure Poppy. I guess next you will tell me that the Weather Channel used to talk about the weather, MTV actually played music videos and people used to go to stores to buy stuff." Kids today, they can't even remember when Clemson sucked at football.

So I sat in on a Emergency Mgt call at the office today focused on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season and the forecaster said there is increasing data to suggest that we will be in a weak La Nina by fall resulting in a more active hurricane season. Unfortunately I can't post since it was a commercial site. Not only would that correlate to a potentially more active hurricane season but wouldn't be good news for SE winter weather (typically).

Obviously there is some science behind this annual ritual. Perhaps when I get a little less busy at the hospital I will do some research as to why we see the NAO go negative each spring but not from December to February. At this point it can't be coincidental or can it? What atmospheric conditions are causing the teleconnections to get stuck in this same pattern? During the 70's and 80's we had a predominantly negative NAO, now it seems we have flipped the script. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml

Not a stellar winter IMBY. We moved up to Gaston County from upstate in Jan. 2017 and had a 5" snow the first week we were here. Rest of that winter was terrible for winter weather. 17/18 we had the snow in December and snow and cold in January so it was a good winter. 18/19 we had 5" of snow in Dec. but nothing rest of winter. This year nada. However, this year wasn't as bad as 11/12. That was the worst winter since I started following winter weather in the SE in the mid 70's and believe me, I have seen some sucky winters. Not even one thing to track. I should add that we live in N. Gaston County near Lincoln County line. Of course, it wouldn't matter if I moved to Syracuse, NY, I seem to cause a snow drought wherever I go these days and heaven forbid I post about a potential event

Yep. I was a senior in high school in Easley S.C. in 83. Front came through on Wednesday and brought flurries after a warm week. Thursday was gray and cold with a strong NE wind. We had baseball practice in 42 degree windy weather that day. Try hitting a baseball with an aluminum bat in that weather. Friday morning the snow hit. 10” of wet snow. Some of the biggest flakes I’ve ever seen. Was an El Niño winter. Except that big snow it really wasn’t a snowy winter.

Wound up with just a dusting in Cherryville unless we get wraparound from coastal. Congrats to our Raleigh folks. GA and NW corner of SC along with central and eastern N.C. have now had snow. Now we need a I 85 special for us foothills and piedmont folks.

I don't get some of the wailing and gnashing of teeth. Radar returns west all the way into Ms. look pretty robust. I suppose the orientation and movement could result in some down-sloping. But I am just glad to have something to track after this crappy winter. Two weeks ago at this time we were hunkered down in the Emergency Operations Center with an EF2 tornado on the ground in the southern part of the county headed our way. It's sleeting outside now. Quite a difference. No complaints here......yet

Rain and sleet in Gastonia and 42. Little surprising to see sleet this early with temp at 42

Yep. Dropped from 52 to 48 here in Cherryville since 430 PM, mostly clear now, and stiff NE wind.

GSP AFD.....they are slowly increasing confidence in an event Thursday... All told, the best 2 to 3 inch snow accumulations for this relatively short duration event should affect the higher ridges of the NC mountains, with lighter accumulations east of the mountains and mainly northwest of I-85, but with a dusting southeast of the Interstate. Some wintry weather potential will be featured for most zones in the HWO this afternoon, but no Watches will be posted at present. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

For those discounting NAM, do so at your own peril. Many times I’ve seen it out perform globals on SE winter storms. Feb 2014 is just one example. While European and others were calling for a snow apocalypse, NAM was screaming “the profiles are gong to be too warm for many”. It was exactly right. I am hoping it is right this time by forecasting the opposite.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml Let me save you the trouble of clicking: NAO - Not suitable for small children AO - Don't look Ethel....at lease moving toward 0 after this week PNA - See AO Given the horrific indices this winter, it's amazing we have gotten any frozen precip. at all in the SE.

I'll start a thread tomorrow....