Upstate Tiger

Euro was a beaut.

Still a good signal for next weekend on the 12Zs so far. Agree we see a reload by the end of the month.

I am still thinking there is potential between the 15-20th this month looking at todays 12Z ops.

Out to 330 but overall the Euro is much dryer than the GFS up to this point

Overnight runs of the ops models were not bad. At least some potential as we get into mid late next week. Cold certainly making a deep run into the US after mid month.

12z Euro is a bit more interesting today and certainly colder after next week.

Looking a bit stormy in the SE next weekend on the 0z GFS. Euro has also has some convection next weekend. At least we are starting to moisture across the SE after this week.

Well the 12Z Goofus gets rid of the ridge at least. Interested to see what the Euro shows after next week.

I hope the 18z GFS is wrong because the entire continent was AN until the end when the west went BN. More worrisome is its dry as a bone in the SE.

After conducting a thorough quantitative analysis of all model and teleconnections verification scores, I have concluded: The model that predicts AN and no frozen precipitation in the SE verifies almost 100% of the time.

Overnight runs remind me of our bowl game. Lots of hope and excitement dashed by the reality that we suck.

If I smoked I would light one up after the GFS Happy Hour run.

Man that is some major league cold spilling into the U.S. at the end of the GFS. Canada is in the freezer.

A little happy hour cocktail

Merry Christmas you filthy animals…and a happy New Year! May your New Year be filled with banana highs and Miller A’s.

Congratulations SE peeps! I think we all willed the 18z into a classic Miller A. Now if we can only will it into actually happening.

It looks like we will see more cold intrusions into the SE as we get into January. Maybe we can thread the needle on one but isn't that always the case LOL.

Yep next week will be cold. We need that trough axis about 500 miles to the west.

This morning's teleconnections

I’m one of the biggest snow on here but yesterday felt awesome on the golf course. I can’t figure out why no one’s on the course today? There’s not a cloud in the sky.

Would love to see the Miller B show up again that the GFS was showing on a few earlier runs for the period right after Christmas.

That’s what I was noticing yesterday. Hopefully it trends the other way in the next few runs.

Nothing encouraging looking at the PNA and NAO today. NAO looks to be heading into positive territory while the PNA is heading negative after the 15th. Ops does still show lots of cold in Canada with occasional intrusions into the U.S. and even the SE over the next two weeks followed by warm ups. I see the mountains getting some NWSF with these. One just gets the impression that the models are still having a hard time reflecting the MJO. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised to see winter stay in this relatively dry rinse and repeat typical in a Nina or turn really cold in the east in January. I am rooting for the latter!