Upstate Tiger

Yep. The GFS was a step in the right direction for those of us wanting more snow above 85.

Well…my roads are brined and I’m under a WSW starting at 700AM Friday. That’s already better than the last couple of years.

SC and NC about to be NAM’d

Blocking, blocking, my kingdom for some blocking

This is what to look for. Got to get back to negative tilt sooner. if not, I’ve seen this too many times in my 50 years of winter weather watching, there will be a lot of disappointed folks.

GSP. As we all saw last night, less phasing less precip. Still early for specifics. As of 250 am Wednesday: A cold and very dry air mass will remain in place in association with arctic surface high pressure during the first half of the short term. A short wave trough will then eject from Texas Fri/Fri night, with the wave becoming increasingly dampened and vorticity increasingly channeled as it progresses across the Southeast. An attendant cyclone will track along the Gulf Coast Friday before pushing off the South Carolina Coast early Saturday. This track will allow frontogenetical forcing to wring out precip across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia by Friday afternoon before tapering off Friday night, with categorical PoPs of 80-90% warranted across the entire forecast area during this time frame. In terms of precip types and amounts...the overall trend in the consensus of global and short term guidance is toward less phasing of the southern and northern branches of the upper jet, and toward a more suppressed/farther south/slightly weaker and colder scenario for the Southeast.

I’m hoping to kick back Friday night and watch the OSU destroy the horns while the snow piles up outside.

Once we get inside 24 hours you can just about go to the bank with the thermals on the NAM. I’m holding my breath to that late Thursday night NAM run. No doubt we have a storm but how much of what is still in question.

Hmmm I have also noticed a lot of odd behavior by the animals on this board. BTW. GSP AFD is a good one.

Looks good to me

Looking more and more like one of our classic winter storms from my youth in the 70s in the upstate. A few inches of snow, layer of sleet, and some freezing to top it off.

GSP with as much confidence as the rest of us. Will continue to monitor. But, this is where the guidance starts to turn as there is a signal for a potential system developing for the end of the week into the weekend. Long range guidance has flip flopped on the end of the period, earlier indicating a potential for another area of low pressure forming off to the west and lifting toward the Carolinas. Latest runs put the low further south and originating in the Gulf and coming up the east coast from FL. At this time, it`s too far out to say what type of weather this system could bring, but wintry p- types is not out of the question. High pressure and dry conditions return after this potential system to round out next weekend.

It would be nice to see snow in my backyard. What would really be awesome is to see snow in my back and front yards! One can only dream.

How are you guys getting Euro so fast? I am only through 102. Looks ok so far.

Guess I’m missing something. I thought the overnight model runs were pretty good. Storm seems likely with no suppression. Yes it could be north and bomb out over the mid Atlantic like the 06z is showing but we have a likely storm and some cold around. Should be an interesting few days.

Good run for sure.

Would love to see a high where the lowe is in the northern planes on Wednesday.

The weather nazi at KGSP NWS has spoken. NO SNOW FOR YOU!!! At this point, the chance for snow east of the mountains is close to zero, despite what long term guidance may have hinted at in past recent runs. Guidance has temperatures during this time a few degrees below normal with overnight temps dipping into the teens for the mountains and 20s elsewhere. All in all, the extended is dry, cold, and snow-less. &&

Me too! I’m done! Can someone call me at 11 so I can watch the 0z GFS?

Hate to say it but the 0z runs were as ugly as a room full of gamecocks. Will still be waiting on the next suite as things change quickly in the winter.

Just got back home from visiting family in SC and peeked at the 18z GFS. I need a cigarette.

12Z GFS pretty consistent with bringing the cold south and east through the end of the run. We'll just have to wait and see on the storm chances. I think we will have an opportunity or 2.

Looking at the 12z GFS, the 7th - 9th appears to be our best opportunity for a SE winter storm over the next 2 weeks. Just need a bit of blocking and we’re in business.

Little doubt cold is coming. I always look for a storm on the front end of a cold dump. Hopefully it can work out.