Upstate Tiger

BTW. The average global temp was down 1 degree.

Most failed. Led to widespread food shortages in America and Europe.

Reading some stuff this morning about 1816, the year without summer. Our current pattern is in no way similar to that global event brought on largely by the eruption of Mt Tambora. Nevertheless, fascinating reading. The New England states had frost every month that year and widespread snow in June. Philadelphia had frost on the 4th of July and Augusta Ga had a low of 43. Several other crazy anomalies that summer that are worth checking out.

52 this morning in Cherryville. Unreal. Not complaining though!

Highs Saturday and Sunday may not get out of the low 50's. That would be 30 degrees below average and easily set records for low maximums. The pool is opening this weekend at the country club. Think we'll hold off a week. Probably won't be difficult to get chairs though...

53 this morning in Cherryville. Very refreshing.

Would have been really interesting to have seen this weekend's setup in January or February. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

39 this morning in Cherryville. Has felt like fall last several days. Hard to believe July 4 is 8 weeks away.

What a nice Easter weekend in store for us in the Carolinas... LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 AM EDT Monday: The alluded frontal boundary will sweep into the CFWA on Thursday. Most model guidance keeps a narrow band of showers and storms along the boundary as it pushes through the area. Some scattered showers and storms may develop just ahead of the main boundary, but the main focus will be along the frontal axis. With a slight uptick in shear parameters and global models/NAM depicting decent SBCAPE (750-1500 J/kg) values ahead of the boundary, most should expect some form of organized convection Thursday afternoon/evening, with a low-end severe threat, but confidence remains low on this development. Either way, temperatures will remain 10-15 degrees above-normal for highs on Thursday as most of the CFWA will settle under a stout warm sector. Major changes will be underway behind the front Thursday night as a strong surface high travels across the Central Plains and Midwest Thursday and into the OH Valley Thursday night. As the surface high sets up shop over the Mid-Atlantic early Friday, model guidance continue to place the CFWA under a hybrid CAD. With the flow aloft oriented from the southwest to northeast, deep moisture will continue to traverse over the CAD dome. Expect temperatures to dropoff nearly 20 degrees for highs on Friday compared to Thursday. The frontal boundary will stall south of the area, but moist upglide should keep PoPs elevated on Friday and through much of the weekend. By the weekend, the surface high should slip offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast and transition into more of an in-situ wedge, locking in the cold air through at least Sunday with temperatures remaining 10-15 degrees below-normal over the weekend for highs, with the potential for values to be even lower. Signs of CAD erosion doesn`t appear in model guidance until late Sunday into Monday as a shortwave trough pushes in from the Deep South and a surface wave travels underneath before deepening off the Southeast Coast during this timeframe. In this case, expect for a very cloudy and gloomy end to the week with well below-normal temperatures and continuous cloud cover through the end of the period following the fropa late Thursday.

As has been previously mentioned, looks like a transition to El Nino by middle or end of summer. Would much prefer neutral enso as we head into fall but will gladly say goodbye to Nina! https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Someone reminded me today that it was the anniversary of the March 28, 1984 Carolinas Tornado outbreak. I was on the 4th floor of a dorm room in Rock Hill. The thing I remember distinctly about that day was coming out of class in the afternoon and it was so hot and humid I could hardly breath. It was one of the worst outbreaks ever in this region. https://www.weather.gov/mhx/Mar281984EventReview

Cold springs have become the norm over the last few years and this year looks no different. Silver lining is it keeps the bugs and humidity at bay a little longer but the fairways take longer to turn green and pool stays cold until the end of June.

4 mornings in the past week 25 degrees or lower including two 23 degree readings. Pretty impressive for late March. Also, killed my Azaleas!

What's wrong with the Euro? Winnies have it clogged up?

Maaannnn! I've gone down from 22" to 15". Figures...

The next 10 days indicates that the weather won’t be good for the human body for those in the SE. The optimum ambient temperature for preserving and sustaining the human body is 67 degrees Fahrenheit. I heard that on Ancient Aliens….

Oh come on Josh...I know you will setting your alarm tonight for 1130 and 130.

06Z showing 4 winter threats in the next 2 weeks . Was going to aerate lawn and put out pre emergent tomorrow. If I follow through, we will have a 1960 redeux. If I don't, we will be in the 70's in the next two weeks.

Severe threat still appears to be on schedule for Friday: As of 225 PM EST Wednesday: A potent shortwave trough and closed upper low will take on a negative tilt as it ejects out of the Southern Plains Thursday night and lifts through the Tennessee Valley and into Ohio on Friday. This will push a strong cold front through the area that will bring a threat for severe thunderstorms. A warm front will quickly lift north Thursday night into Friday morning with the entire forecast area residing within an open warm sector by the early afternoon hours. Upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints will be common within the warm sector, which should be sufficient to support 500-1500 J/kg of surface-based CAPE across the area with the highest values across the Piedmont. This is concerning as shear profiles will be quite impressive. A 50-60kt low-level jet translating across Georgia and the Carolinas will help sweep out large cyclonically curved hodographs with 400-500 m2/s2 of 0-1km SRH and 40-45kts of 0-1km bulk shear. Deep-layer wind shear will also be impressive on the order of 70-80kts. The resulting parameter space will be more than supportive of all modes and hazards of severe weather. Details, however, will reside in the placement and magnitude of forcing and where the best CAPE/shear balance sets up shop. A very strong ~985mb surface low will lift into central Indiana with a pre- frontal surface trough extending into northeast Georgia and the Carolinas. While pressures will be low, the strongest surface pressure falls and height falls aloft will be displaced just northwest of the area. Early CAM/mesoscale guidance depicts a scenario where forcing is just enough to instigate a cellular storm mode while not being too strong for rapid upscale growth into a line of convection. This solution would support a broken band of supercells, which would yield a greater severe weather threat. The other uncertainty is the CAPE/shear balance as warm mid-level temperatures and poor lapse rates result in meager CAPE profiles. Resulting updrafts could struggle with such a strong magnitude of shear, but this could potentially be offset by stronger forcing/kinematics. With that being said, the current slight risk appears well placed across the area until details can get ironed out. An upgrade to higher severe probabilities cannot be ruled out either given the aforementioned parameter space. Winds will also be gusty outside of the severe weather threat, especially during peak heating/mixing within the warm sector. A high wind watch may eventually be needed across the higher terrain in the mountains with advisory level winds possible elsewhere.

Looking like Friday could see some severe weather in the SE.

It’s going to be interesting to see where trough axis sets up if the arctic intrusion occurs and if the storm track changes. Already in the last week we’ve seen the storm track a little further south and East and the NE is actually seeing regular rounds of wintry precipitation. It looks to edge even more further south next weekend with the mid Atlantic in play. It’s been such an odd winter pattern, who knows what will happen.

Everybody knows what a I am. But, unless we’re getting a 1993, 1980, 1971, or 1973 March repeat, give me some mid upper 60s and sun. It’s been a terrible winter for weekend golfers. Record cold in March with no snow doesn’t excite me.

Meanwhile...Blizzard warnings have been hoisted for LA and Ventura counties Friday through Saturday for the first time since 1989. It won't snow in the major cities but very nearby.

Looks like the PNA tries to go positive but not until after the first week of March. Two things you can always count on in March. The NAO and Clemson basketball tanking...

Well...if we don't officially reach 80, there's still a statistical chance for snow this year.