Upstate Tiger

Thanks! I had not seen that. Good grief...now we have to worry about a Low in the Bahamas. If there is a way to screw the SE, no matter how crazy, it seems to happen.

I wish one of the mets would explain that Low in the bahamas. GFS has that feature as well. Just shown up in the last day. We are not seeing the earlier phasing or negative tilt we saw at 18z. Probably all noise at this point any way...

Key take away from GSP, “expect model shenanigans to continue”.

Euro with a 968 bomb off the coast. Man that thing explodes.

Good grief the GFS has a 966 bomb off the coast.

NAM with light snow over Mississippi and NC at 60. I know NAM but hey it did pretty well last week.

Pretty concise discussion from GSP... https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Not a bad look on the Euro IMO. I’m ok with the evolution of the surface features on the 12z.

Love seeing the transfer off the coast at the Ga Fl line. Always a great benchmark for a Miller A snowstorm in the Carolinas. If only it verifies.

Let's hope that trend comes to fruition this time as well...

He nailed last week's storm...

So we like Bam again? Just want to make sure I am not hating the wrong people...

77,78,79 all had snow on Super Bowl Sunday in the upstate

Euros stuck at 54. Boy it must really be cooking up something good (or bad)

06 GFS much better surface reflection. Can someone post the Weathernext?

Need to go back and look at H5. Really thought the surface would have been better with gulf low placement and transfer. The big dogs usually transfer right off shore at the Ga Fl line. Still showing off NC.

We can work with this.

18z Euro not bad at this range. Shows snow for most of NC.

And unlike 1980, the preceding days will not be mild.

The 3/1/1980 storm was a bit of a disappointment in the upstate. Friday the 29th was sunny and temp climbed to 60. NWS issued a WSW that afternoon and forecast of temp falling to 30 by morning and remaining steady or falling through Saturday, with 8”-10” of snow. The temp was at 30 at daybreak and did drop through the day. But a warm nose kept the upstate sleet all day. We accumulated a couple inches of sleet. Every time it transitioned to snow and we thought the changeover had occurred, it would go back to sleet. We were slightly saved by a ULL that night that gave us a quick 2”-3”. So not a total bust.

This pattern reminds me an awful lot of January 77. There's a misconception that we had a lot of snow that month but the cold was the real story. It is still the coldest month on record at GSP. The highest temperature recorded at GSP for the month was 50 degrees. 77/78, 78/79, and 79/80 were the trifecta for SE winter storms. 01/3/77 - 1"-2" of snow in the upstate 1/10/77 - Superbowl Sunday, 3"-4" in the upstate, brutal cold the following week 1/15/77 - ice storm 1/17/77 - famous (or infamous) cold wave. Temps in the low to mid teen in the upstate during the day. 1/24/77 - 5" of snow February and March turned warm with above normal temps, so it was really a 4 week stretch that changed the record books. Side note, February 80 is still the coldest February on record in the upstate.