Jump to content

Upstate Tiger

Members
  • Posts

    541
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Upstate Tiger

  1. Looking at the longrange on the 12Z GFS today is not good for us snow lovers in the SE. Any cold intrusions after this weekend look sparse going into the first week of February. Remains to be seen if the cold returns as moldeled earlier. NAO looks to head positive, PNA stays positive (good), but MJO is headed to 6 before maybe COD. Not the trends we want.
  2. Yep. It stinks. Snow drought is probably an appropriate term. The 1950s had a similar snow drought in the SE. Still think Feb holds some opportunities
  3. I know it's frustrating right now and it's been a frustrating couple of years for snow lovers but wall to wall cold from December to March just does not happen here. The coldest month on record at GSP is Janaury 1977 and there were days in the 50's and even a 55 on Janaury 27. The coldest February on record at GSP is February 1980. We had 8" of snow that month with 3 events. We also had 4 days in the 70's including a 76 a few days before March 1, 1980. Anyone around the Carolinas then remembers what happened March 1-2, 1980.
  4. During the moderation the last 2 weeks of the month (hopefully get some golf in), Canada will be resupplying with cold air. I actually liked the orientation of the high pressure better on the 0Z for the first week of February. The 06Z was further west. Nevertheless, cold should be poised to move south and east.
  5. Yep. The 18z is no bueno for Monday and Tuesday.
  6. I guess I need to go back and look at the 12Z GFS again because I don't get the gnashing of teeth . But I'm old so I may have been looking a tic tok video.
  7. Correct! That's the place to be in this set up.
  8. GSP AFD... Extended models show the development of a long wave structure with a deep upper trough over the eastern CONUS with numerous chances for shortwave passages through Wednesday. This pattern also gives generally lower thickness levels and increased chances for snow over the GSP area through Wednesday. Moisture is still limited. Still the EC model has some snow over most of the CWA on Tuesday. The GFS model, however, restricts frozen precip to the higher elevations. Overall, chances for winter conditions increase into mid next week, though no major event is current on the horizon. Yeah but I want a major event!!!!
  9. Weather app now saying 22 MPH sustained with 50 MPH wind gust at my home in Cherryville. Just looking at doorbell cam it is hard to validate. If valid, there will be major power outages. Very windy at the hopital here in Gastonia.
  10. Weather app says 21 mph sustained and 49 mph gust at my home in Cherryville. Got to say though that my doorbell camera doesn’t look like it’s blowing that hard. Going to be a wild day. Stay safe.
  11. GSP's morning AFD on next week'sa potential event. The forecaster put is about as good as you could... An interesting set up is showing up in guidance by D7, but still a lot more questions than answers this far out before going into the nitty gritty details as differences between model guidance suggests they don`t know what the heck is going to happen with the sensible weather beyond this upcoming weekend. Temperatures are expected to begin the period at or slightly above normal on Friday before below-normal values settle in through the rest of the medium range following Friday`s system.
  12. Well there will be a big storm in the south it looks line. Right now Tenn forum should be happy. We’ll see if that holds over the next several days. My guess is it moves back and forth until Friday or Saturday.
  13. In January of 1977, I believe it was 16th and 17th, we had a very similar set up as this. Cold on the front end allowed for a little frozen in the higher elevations. Then heavy rain, high wind warning, and even a tornado watch. When I went to bed that evening, the temp at GSP was 66. Winds howled all night with some stations reporting 80 MPH gusts. When I got up, we had a dusting of snow blowing around and temps in the 20's. About 8:30 AM a snow squal came through with absolute whiteout conditions. Temp dropped to 19 degrees and stayed there all day. We had occassional snow flurries in the upstate all day and the winds were gusting to 50 MPH. Wonder if any of you other boomers like me remember that one?
  14. Yeah. This period is worth watching. We’ve got cold coming and an active jet stream. I really don’t want to be sitting in the jackpot zone outside 7 days. We all know how that works out. I also think the warmup will be muted and short lived.
  15. We’ve been stuck at 34/26 for last couple of hours. Wished I could stay up a couple more hours as I think we get a few flakes and some sleet before WAA takes over.
  16. Temp falling like cheap lard in Cherryville. Down to 36/27 at 643. About 5 degrees colder than prog’d. Hmmm
  17. The Pacific looks like its not going to cooperate. Will have to rely on HL blocking IMO.
  18. Ops not showing anthing to hang our hats on but with active pattern, arctic air in our hemisphere, blocking posibly showing up, who knows? It only takes one
  19. Looking at the last 24 hours of model runs leads me to believe the next 2-3 weeks are going to be a wild ride.
  20. European with a little something for next week. Temps need a little help.
  21. Looks like a couple of opportunities over the next couple of weeks to track. Would love to see the pattern follow 79-80 given a possible relaxation. Snow and cold first week of January. 2 weeks of mild followed by a historic February.
  22. I'm a glass half full guy usually looking for some silver lining but the LR this morning is not good. Once again the Pacific is really screwing us in the east. This time it's causing mild Pacific air to flood Canada over the next couple of weeks. I'm always optimistic when Canada has cold air. When it doesn't, it's no bueno.
  23. Temps in Canada look better with afternoons runs for week of Christmas. This coincides with pattern change many have referenced. Probably not going to help us with next weekend and midweek storm afterwords but we’ll see.
×
×
  • Create New...