Upstate Tiger

967 MB bomb off the Jersey shore tomorrow. One of the Mets said that’s a cat 2 in hurricane season.

Pretty cool from the NYC forum NWS AFD. Fun reading the MA and NY forums right now. While the latest 12z GFS is now lower with QPF and more in line with the Canadian and ECMWF, these global models are struggling with banding. Current forecast QPF and Snow Amounts remained similar to previous forecast which is more in line with hi res/HREF guidance. Snow amount was derived using similar snow ratios to the previous forecast. Much of the guidance including the NBM appears to be too high. This was mannualy adjusted down to 10:1 or even a bit lower today, then increasing to 12-14:1 by late tonight into daybreak Monday as colder air wraps around the system. Using these ratios with generally 1.25 to 1.50 inches of QPF across the interior and 1.75 to 2.00 inches along the coast resulted in a swath of about 20 to 24 inches of snow for NYC and Long Island and 16 to 20 inches elsewhere. While this is the expected amount, a few isolated readings of 30 inches are possible in the heaviest banding, mainly along the coast.

Yeah I don’t understand why the Euro has consistently been too dry with most systems this winter even when it’s surface is similar to other wetter models.

With the last storm the GFS and CMC did the best for our area. The Euro was always a bit dry.

Euro says "no bueno." Still time though for the MA.

Yeah the GFS buries VA, Eastern Tn., and Mid Atlantic. Some crazy totals in there.

I’ve witnessed some good events in March. March 1, 1978, March 1, 1980, March 24, 1983 (record setter), March 13, 1993, March 1, 2009.

If the 18z happens both Washington and NYC will pass their seasonal averages.

A quick AI search reports Washington Reagan 8.6" with annual seasonal average of 14". NY City has received 21.2" with a 25 year seasonal average of 29". I have measured just over 11" total in Lincoln County this season. My annual average states 5”.

I think it was Carver on the Tennessee forum who said the Euro has been much too dry with its long term forecasts this winter. Looks like a couple of opportunities for a winter storm in the east over the next two of weeks.

The Euro and GFS have two totally different iterations in the long term. GFS wetter and somewhat milder. The Euro is much dryer and colder starting with the frontal passage this weekend. Would at least like to see some decent weekend golfing weather...

It’s hard to know. The last couple of springs have been very cold and they were Nina’s.

I think the wild card is how quickly nino sets up. Nino springs tend to be colder and wetter than average in the SE.

I’m confused. Does this mean the skies have not healed?

It pains me to say this but thank you Tar Heels. If we win tonight, we’re tied for first. That hasn’t happened much during February for us in basketball. Makes me think we actually get another storm or two because anything is apparently possible this year.

Rain and sleet in Gastonia and 47 degrees. Crazy.

Got a dusting last night. If nothing else it coated the brown and black piles. Sitting right at 11” for the season. Hard to complain.

Good data! The NAO looks to be negative for this potential event but you are correct that the PNA is the teleconnection with the largest impact on SE winter weather IMO. This is 10 days out and the teleconnection forecasts can be tricky so maybe it will change. I haven't looked at the MJO forecast.

CMC has the same general setup but doesn’t have the high placement like GFS so wintry is further north.

GFS says happy Valentines Day snow lovers.

Yep looks like we warm up next week. I will be in Charleston so looking forward to some warmth. Don't sleep on Valentine's weekend, a little blocking and get rid of that upper midwest low and you have a big winter storm in the SE. Looks like a strat split coming up that could make March very cold in the U.S., at least until mid-month.

Someone may get NAM’d tomorrow afternoon. It seemed to my faulty memory that secondary lows were common in the 70s and they were always good for a couple of inches.

Hopefully we can get one without any screw zone ala President's Day 1 - 1979. Still one of my all time favorites with temps in the teens, howling wind, and 14" in the upstate IMBY. It did warm up rather quickly the following week but still took several days to melt.

Yep. Looking like a return to winter in the east around or just after Valentine’s Day for a at least a couple of weeks. Still think this winter holds at least one more SE winter storm.