Upstate Tiger

One thing that is consistent on the GFS runs is really cold air dropping back into central and eastern Canada just prior to mid February after our warmup. It would only take a slight buckle in the jet stream to bring it south. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a CAD event or two mid month onward.

yep. Happy hour again. Drinks half price. This model reminds me of my ex wife (who was not a model).

As Dawg mentioned we need the HP to come in faster or the system to slow down on the GFS. Still a lot of possibilities on the table. The model inconsistency is comical at this point, especially the GFS. The CMC and Euro have been a little more consistent.

Who knows. I think all solutions are still on the table. European has cold chasing rain so that’s probably the most likely scenario but we could get a surprise.

Got to run to a meeting 's. Euro is cold and suppressed. Right where we want it at 7 days LOL! Let me know how rest of run goes...

Yep. Will be interesting to see how Euro handles this. CMC is further south and thus more snow.

Snow followed by epic ice storm...

Did anyone in the Piedmont of NC get snow about 300AM? My security camera was triggered and it looked like a flizzard.

The 18z came back to reality but the same features are still there including the weakening of the SER. Wouldn’t totally laugh off the time frame. Heck, it’s Jan 21 and Clemson’s in first place in the ACC. If hell can freeze over, anything’s possible.

Yeah, 4 winter events for my area over 1 week like 2014. LOL. Would take it and call it a winter. At least we’re seeing fantasy storms now.

Euro a week from tomorrow. Potential...

At least 2 events showing up on the GFS 12Z that could turn into opportunities with slight adjustments. Lots of energy flying around so anything could happen: 1/25-27 and 1/29-1/31. https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=20230117 12 UTC&param=sim_radar_comp&fourpan=no&imageSize=M&ps=area&fhr_mode=image&loop_start=-1&loop_end=-1&skip_num=1#

Don’t know about that, you guys got the best of us. All joking aside, things can change quickly in winter and we’re only mid January. Hopefully February is our month in the SE.

NEVER!!!

12z Euro

Likewise, my parents and grandparents spoke often about that famous March. Grandfather said ice was on their back porch til the end of April. I've heard this period referred to as the "Holy Grail" of SE weather patterns with a persistent cross polar flow that lasted throughout March. BTW...looking at overnight models. The western ridge is showing up consistently in the long range but a Nina like Ohio Valley storm track continues to dominate. Hopefully the ridge axis shifts a bit east. Would not take a lot for the SE to be in the game with cold air over eastern Canada.

Thanks for all the work. Hopefully see something on Ops soon. Still like to see the NAO be neutral or negative but can’t have it all. PNA is a more important teleconnection so I’ll take it.

You can clearly see the ridge begin to build out west after the 21st. One thing is for sure. The reservoirs and snow pack in the west should have benefited from the ongoing pattern.

I hope. Reminds me of 1983/84. Was a freshman in college. We had the brutal cold snap at Christmas with no snow. Mild January. A mild February with one little 2” snow event. Bad tornado outbreak end of March in South Carolina.

I can’t Pivotal load. Anyone care to give a short synopsis of next weekend and the long term? I’m lookIng for a generational ice storm soon. Was testing the generator this morning and she gave up the ghost.

Well GW looks like we're back to watching teleconnections. At least the AO and PNA look better today long-range and MJO still looks good.

Yep, Euro transfers off the Delmarva.

Yep the Euro brought the goods this run.

I know its not much and cold air is marginal at best but watching next week.

12Z GFS and teleconnections say move along, nothing to see here today. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml