Upstate Tiger

Hmmm I have also noticed a lot of odd behavior by the animals on this board. BTW. GSP AFD is a good one.

Looks good to me

Looking more and more like one of our classic winter storms from my youth in the 70s in the upstate. A few inches of snow, layer of sleet, and some freezing to top it off.

GSP with as much confidence as the rest of us. Will continue to monitor. But, this is where the guidance starts to turn as there is a signal for a potential system developing for the end of the week into the weekend. Long range guidance has flip flopped on the end of the period, earlier indicating a potential for another area of low pressure forming off to the west and lifting toward the Carolinas. Latest runs put the low further south and originating in the Gulf and coming up the east coast from FL. At this time, it`s too far out to say what type of weather this system could bring, but wintry p- types is not out of the question. High pressure and dry conditions return after this potential system to round out next weekend.

It would be nice to see snow in my backyard. What would really be awesome is to see snow in my back and front yards! One can only dream.

How are you guys getting Euro so fast? I am only through 102. Looks ok so far.

Guess I’m missing something. I thought the overnight model runs were pretty good. Storm seems likely with no suppression. Yes it could be north and bomb out over the mid Atlantic like the 06z is showing but we have a likely storm and some cold around. Should be an interesting few days.

Good run for sure.

Would love to see a high where the lowe is in the northern planes on Wednesday.

The weather nazi at KGSP NWS has spoken. NO SNOW FOR YOU!!! At this point, the chance for snow east of the mountains is close to zero, despite what long term guidance may have hinted at in past recent runs. Guidance has temperatures during this time a few degrees below normal with overnight temps dipping into the teens for the mountains and 20s elsewhere. All in all, the extended is dry, cold, and snow-less. &&

Me too! I’m done! Can someone call me at 11 so I can watch the 0z GFS?

Hate to say it but the 0z runs were as ugly as a room full of gamecocks. Will still be waiting on the next suite as things change quickly in the winter.

Just got back home from visiting family in SC and peeked at the 18z GFS. I need a cigarette.

12Z GFS pretty consistent with bringing the cold south and east through the end of the run. We'll just have to wait and see on the storm chances. I think we will have an opportunity or 2.

Looking at the 12z GFS, the 7th - 9th appears to be our best opportunity for a SE winter storm over the next 2 weeks. Just need a bit of blocking and we’re in business.

Little doubt cold is coming. I always look for a storm on the front end of a cold dump. Hopefully it can work out.

There are some differences between the operational GFS and EURO long range with the EURO being a better set up for us. Unfortunately, when there are two options on the table, it's best to avoid disappointment and go with the less wintry solution.

Yeah it seems Siberia and China has experienced some extreme winters in recent years.

Agree. I’m beginning to think the Tarheels have a better chance at hiring Bill Belichick than we do of seeing a class Miller A snowstorm.

At least we have something to watch and discuss this year instead of our favorite brand of rye grass.

I’m hoping for 2 Christmas miracles on the 21st. A pre Christmas snow and we beat Texas. At this point, unsure which is more improbable.

Last 2 runs of Euro have hinted at a storm around the 21st. Would like to see another pre Christmas snow.

Monday January 11 we had a low of 4 at GSP. By lunch time on Tuesday it was snowing. On Thursday had a second gulf system dumping more snow. Missed school nearly a month.

December 81 was a part of a ENSO neutral winter as we transitioned back to Nino in fall of 82. It was a December of wild swings with a nice little winter storm on the 21st. Reminds me a lot of this December so far. Then in Janaury the arctic hounds were released. Brutal cold and back to back Gulf winter storms. Warmed up after mid Janaury and eseentially winter was over.