Upstate Tiger

GW was going post similar thoughts. Some AN but not what I’d term a torch. I was actually looking forward to the 60s and some nice weather this weekend but had to keep my pullover and hat on all 18 holes Friday. Never saw 60 last 3 days here. Long range has looked much much worse.

You brought the mojo last January. I started the one the year before and the flowers were blooming by Feb 1st

Certainly not seeing anything in the operational models today. Was hoping to see some hint of change in the long range. One thing that has remained consistent is the lobe of cold air over eastern Canada during mid month. As already posted, the indices aren't bad but don't look as good as last few days. Hoping that is not a trend. Hate to waste last half of January in an unfavorable pattern. Still lots of time for change. In meantime, I'm going to enjoy golfing in 60 degree weather this weekend! Also Buckeye needs to start a new year thread...

Won't rehash this post because today's models are showing same. It will take a few days for the OPs to catch up with this transition. Hopefully we start to see some fantasy stuff in the long range by the end of the week.

Got down to 5 in Cherryville. Of course furnace went out overnight with house full of grandkids. Lucky we had gas logs. Unit was only installed last year. We’ve had no luck getting service.

Reached single digits in Cherryville at 9 degrees.

16 degrees in Cherryville at 730.

Looking at today's models, teleconnections, and MJO, I am still thinking our next chance of significant winter weather in the SE is after 1/4. NAO looks to go negative after 1/1, PNA is positive, lots of cold air has rebuilt in Canada, and ECMF has MJO moving into 7. IF that all were to happen, it could be fun times in our area.

Saw on Weather Channel that Denver will go from 52 at 300PM to -4 at 1200AM.

The NAO moves toward positive by the end of the month before heading back negative after the 1st. The PNA moves toward positive at the end of the month and remains slightly positive after the 1st. The latest from the CPC now has the La Nina lasting until February but in a waning state. Forecasts earlier in the fall had La Nina ending after the first of the year. Based on all this, my guess is after a relaxation of the cold at the end of the month, we could see another bout of cold in the east by the end of the first week in January. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml

As I was out rounding in the hospital this morning, I noticed the clouds rolling in and temps in the 20's. AAAhhh, what could have been...

It’s difficult to understand how this storm can be this far north and west with the anomalous blocking in the east and ridging in the west. I will say the 18z GFS is a much more realistic solution than the ECMF IMO.

Yes, kept it back and consolidated.

Don't sleep on the little system for Tuesday night, no pun intended. Some places could see a dusting across the foothills and piedmont of NC & SC.

Very well could be right but everybody was saying the same thing last January leading up to that storm and the GFS lead the way.

Not sure either. Looked good to me

Man the Euro is bringing in the cold starting this weekend with another big dump Christmas weekend. If we can get just a little bit of blocking over the next 2 weeks we could see a nice winter storm in SE. Speaking of cold, does it ever feel any colder than when it is raining and 39 degrees like today?

CPC out this afternoon sticking with potential of a Miller A around Christmas. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

Agree also. I do not see anything in the Ops or Ens from overnight that should cause any cliff diving. We have seen far worse patterns this time of the year in recent years.

Glad to see the rain but what a crappy run of weather. Must be what it's like to live in London. Gloomy, damp, and cold. Hopefully we see some sun next week. This could make a person depressed!

CPC yesterday versus today https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

As mentioned above, the change from yesterday's forecast in the PNA is the difference. Yesterday's PNA forecast has it moving to positive between the 10-15th. Today it keeps it negative.

Good synopsis of the pattern in week two from the CPC. Basically agreeing with previous comments posted above: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

As other have posted the pattern looks really good around mid-month looking at the latest GFS. Also, NAO heading to really negative territory while the PNA moves toward positive.

Very, very sad news today from Charlotte. This happened not too far from our hospital. Jason seemed like a great guy. https://www.wbtv.com/2022/11/22/wbtv-mourning-loss-meteorologist-jason-myers-pilot-chip-tayag/