Upstate Tiger

42% U.S. snow coverage this morning. Little surprised it isn't higher, especially across the northern Rockies and high plains. However, good coverage in the east should aid in arctic air transport next week.

Interesting you mention 79. Late yesterday afternoon the sky had almost completely clouded over except a little outline of the sun. The first time I saw a similar sky was the Saturday afternoon before the great Presidents Day storm of 79. Of course back on that Saturday, there was a stiff northerly breeze and temp was in the upper 20s. Friday the day before it had been 68 and sunny. Sunday was snowy and windy with temps in the mid teens. Wound up with 14” IMBY. I remember listening on the old weather radio for the hourly updates where they would give conditions around the Carolinas and Ga and it was snowing everywhere but Charleston and Savannah. Myrtle Beach reported heavy snow and 18 degrees. One of my favorites!! Multiple events that winter.

Yes. Grill cover on back deck covered. Down to 37. However looks like back end of band coming through Cleveland County unless it redevelops. Still saw more flakes Thani thought I would.

Snowing pretty hard in Cherryville. 39/21

Yep Grit. You can see the SE ridge trying to flex its muscle. Hopefully it remains at bay and helps steer a SW into the southeast.

Will be quite interested to see what GSP says in the long term AFD this afternoon.

Looking at 12 UTC GFS, still like the period of 10th - 12th. Maybe the coldest air of the winter across the upper Midwest just prior to this time frame with some 20 below readings. Looks to spill south and eastward with a possible low development across deep south. Of course this morning's 06 UTC showed a major winter storm for Brownsville and northern Mexico during this time. If Monterey, Mexico and Madrid, Spain (18" on Jan 9) wind up with more snow than me this winter, I'll be pissed

Well the GFS 12UTC doesn't offer much winter wise in the next 2 weeks. Typical La Nina with midwestern storm track and demarcation line. However, the second week of February, the cold really builds in central Canada. Looks to be poised to dump further east this time instead of west. Just need MJO and EPO to come in line. It's a little premature to throw in the towel on the entire winter. However, if it is not going to snow, would like to play golf one weekend without temps in the upper 40's with stiff breeze. Seems that's been the case since November. https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=area#

Trail ride was cancelled so we decided to take a trail walk. Elk Knob outside Boone. 23 degrees and snowing at good rate.

Good comments. We all need to understand that model watching/commenting is not meteorology. Meteorology is understanding atmospheric science and having the ability to forecast the weather based on that understanding of science. Meteorology is best left to the Mets. Fortunately, we also have some longterm experienced posters such as yourself that offer great analysis. That’s why I enjoy the board. Therefore, I have no issues with someone posting/commenting on models/maps as long as they offer us a little informed context. On the other hand, just posting comments such as “12z is a dumpster fire” or “the Euro is a boom” bring little to the forum. Now off my soapbox....back to our regularly scheduled programming.

Well 12 GFS isn't great but not a dumpster fire either. Will see some real cold this weekend and mountains likely to see some measurable snow. I am heading for a 2.5 hour trail ride at Blowing Rock Saturday. Hope to ride in a little snow. Monday - Wednesday next week will see a southern storm. Looks mostly liquid but things can change. Guess best news is artic cold builds back in Canada W/O 01/18 - 01/27. Too soon to tell where it dumps but just having the cold in Canada is a positive. Remember, it's not over until we say it's over!.....or at least until Burns says its over. https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=area#

Can someone tell me where to go to whine about the 2021whining thread? TIA!

Hardest snowfall rates we’ve seen all day in CHERRYVILLE. 34 degrees

Yep. We moved up here 4 years ago from SC. When I took the job in Gastonia, one of my staff said “y’all should look for a house in Churval.” My wife looked at him and said “where in the world is churval?”

39/28 in CHERRYVILLE.

Still not convinced Monday/Tuesday event moves through the Tenn. valley. It certainly could, we'll see. Regardless, there will be other opportunities ahead. Only wished we had more cold on our side of the hemisphere. GSP AFD: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off GFS 06: https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=area#

Good info on the GSP AFD. Hard to complain about the near term and mid term forecast discussions.... https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

KGSP (That's in northwest SC...the center left corner of state) still cautiously optimistic for 2 storms. Synoptic forecast still essentially the same. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

That’s what I’ve been saying about the west and the winters they’ve experienced the last few years. Maybe you’re on to something. If OSU can finally beat us maybe be we can finally get a Miller A in the middle of January . Best look over the next 10-14 days we seen in several years.

Well....I got my heart broken last Friday night so I am due a better Friday this week.

GSP still honking on both systems in this afternoon's AFD LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 PM EST Monday: No significant changes in the overall thinking for the Thursday night into Friday winter storm. A strong upper low at 500 mb will likely pass just to our south Thursday evening into Friday. A leading surface low pressure system will slowly strengthen Thursday night before more rapidly strengthening into Friday thanks to a stronger baroclinic zone near the coast. Steady moisture advection first off the Gulf of Mexico transitioning to off the of Atlantic combined with deep lift (strong isentropic lift at lower levels and large scale ascent aloft) should support at least moderate precipitation at times, possibly with periods of heavy precipitation during the best overlap between forcing and moisture Thursday night into early Friday. Temperature profiles should support mostly snow across the mountains and possibly into the I-40 corridor with a transition zone probably setting up between roughly the I-40 and I-85 corridors outside of the mountains, with mainly rain south of I-85. That being said, the latest EC showed a jogged a bit north with the upper low in its latest run, which would support warmer profiles and a bit more in the way of liquid precipitation should this trend continue. A brief period of northwest flow snow showers are possible in the storms wake late Friday or Friday night. High pressure will build in this weekend with mostly sunny skies and below normal temperatures. Another colder storm may be on the horizon for early next week.

Been a longtime since we have seen this kind of negative NAO in January. Even though GFS wasn't great today, still feel like timeframe after New Year's has potential. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml

Yes, looking at the 12Z GFS, that appears to be our next legitimate shot with a east coast storm showing up during that timeframe and lots of southern stream energy. On a side note, how about a 964MB low crashing into Alaska on Christmas! That'll make Santa's ride a bumpy one.....

Great information! I was home from college break that December and parents insisted I work at the lumber yard where I worked summers. I remember delivering a load of Sheetrock to Cashiers NC and it was 3 below. Rest of that winter sucked except a little snow in Feb. Pretty rare low snow winter for the 80s. Wildest frontal passage I remember was in Jan of 78. Went to bed at 1000pm. It was breezy, 68, and tornado watch. Woke up at 645 and it was 17 at GSP with 1/2” of fine powder whipping around in 50 mph winds. Another snow squal came through at 830 and temp dropped to 15. I feel for the younger whimper-snappers that didn’t get to experience the 70s and 80s wild winters in the SE. However the setup for next week looks interesting and the indices look good today.

Was 37/28 an hour ago. Clouds rolled in and rose to 39. Feels like Cold Rain.