Upstate Tiger

As crazy as this month has been already, who knows??? It is possible we could time up a winter storm on the backside of one of these monsoons since there is cold air in NA, albeit on the wrong side of the continent.

Congrats to all our peeps in GA and S.C. that scored today, especially the NW corner. Who knew northern GA was the place to be for snow in the SE. For the rest of us we better hope we can squeeze out a surprise this upcoming weekend. Looks like the western trough and SE ridge come back with a vengeance the following week.

Wished I was home to see it. Ground almost completely covered with some on the roads and drive.

View from security camera at home in Cherryville. Good bit of white on the ground. Wife said roofs and grassy services covered. Just sleet and snow here at work in Gastonia

I feel bad for the younger posters. I was born in the 60’s and I would say from about 62 to 88 winters like 09/10 were the rule not the exception. In fact I remember snow on the ground in the upstate most of January in 77,78, 79, 82, 87, 88 and 80 and 83 were epic late season. We also had at least one single digit cold outbreak each winter. The last comparable winters to that were 09/10 and 10/11 in terms of multiple events. I guess 13 and 14 had a few events also. Sure miss the parade of Miller A’s each winter.

That's one crazy wind field. If that happens, better get your generator ready.....

Yep, the real cold is still locked up in Canada during this time. If the GFS is to be trusted, it shows a pretty good push of cold air south from Canada but not until the after this storm has passed. Still, something to keep an eye on as well as the following week (1st week of Feb.) with cold on the move.

Yeah right....I stand a better chance of seeing us beat the Tarheels in Chapel Hill than ever seeing a storm like that again.

Wow, posters on here are like Clemson defensive backs this morning....no where to be found! Surprising given the potential. Headed to Asheville this weekend, may see some token winter precip. early Saturday.

Awesome! Thanks for clarifying

Grit, Great stuff. Question, are the MJO plots/forecast based on ops/ensembles model data or actual obs? Reason I ask is that you referenced last Feb. I don’t recall the models giving us a sniff last Feb. or is my memory flawed?

LOL. I’m supposed to fly to Milwaukee for a business trip on the 28th. Might need to pack a jacket.

Super cold air in Canada over the next 10 days. While heights certainly rise over the west after next weekend, that negative PNA is hanging in there like a hair on a biscuit. At least there are some signs of a pattern change. Hopefully we see some solid model evidence in the next few days.

Good post Q. The cold coming east after the 16th or so is being pretty consistently modeled. Have no chance at significant winter storm in the SE without cold in the eastern half. Pretty frustrating seeing Portland getting ready for potential winter storms over the next 7 days when their annual average snowfall is 3".

Interesting map. Would love to see the same map for 70-79 and 80-89.

Yep. That PNA is a dagger for our part of the country. Like last Saturday night when the Tigers were down 16 to nothing, I am not quite ready to throw in the towel but we need a momentum changer before halftime. Maybe the winter referee is getting ready to call a targeting penalty or an overturned call from the booth would help too!

Made the mistake of wearing a long sleeve shirt on the golf course today. Also forgot my sunscreen. Don’t know what I was thinking

Right on que, winter officially arrives along with a positive NAO. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml

Yep. January of 1977. Miami received a trace. On a another note: Before we get carried away with the LRF and the bad indices over the last few days......just remember, when I started the Long Range 2019 thread a year ago, the LRF and indices showed a wintry setup for January. The opposite came to fruition. Maybe the opposite will happen again. Hope springs eternal. Of course, AN forecasts always seem to verify LOL

Too bad this weekends system isn’t 24 hours faster with some NS interaction. Pretty cold the last couple of days here. 21 degrees in Cherryville this morning.

First, let me apologize to every person living in the southeast who has wanted to see snow over the last 12 months. It seemed at this time last year there was so much promise of a good snowy winter. Then I started the 2019 thread and it all turned into a bag of monkey crap. However, we now have the opportunity to correct this egregious error. If anyone has any hope of seeing any wintry weather, for the love of Pete, please start a new long term thread!!! For my part, I promise to NEVER start another thread. Oh, I will lurk and post the occasional movie reference or weather ob from time to time, but nothing more. Remember, old posters never die, we just simply fade away.

Well this forecaster at the CPC certainly is a . We shall see I guess. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php "For those celebrating the Christmas holiday, travel conditions should be favorable, with the likelihood of a major winter storm looking minimal for most of the central and eastern U.S and the influx of moisture starting to wane in the west. Those dreaming of a white Christmas are likely to be sorely disappointed; temperatures over the eastern two-thirds of the contiguous U.S. are forecast to be anomalously warm."

Hey look I am in the 44" to 48" range or is that a .01 near the 37? Not bad for an Apps Runner. Hope that's a high ratio and not a 6:1 or we are in trouble lol.

I was writing this weekend’s storm off as a non event but now that the blue turd has appeared I am heading out back to test my generator.

Headed to Gatlinburg Sunday through Tuesday. May get to see some NW snow accumulation. From KGSP AFD: At first blush, this one appears to have a lot going for it Sunday night in the operational model runs. Deep moisture, mid-level forcing, sufficiently low mid-level thickness, favorable thermal profiles for snow, and a Great Lakes connection all point to the potential for our first real NW Flow snow event of the season Sunday night and Monday.