Upstate Tiger

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor????

Not good trends today for sure but still far from being settled. Below is long term AFD from GSP: At the surface, a low pressure system develops to our west on Sunday in response to the digging trough. Moisture and precip spread back into the area as the low moves east. However, the ECMWF is stronger, wetter, and farther north with the surface low. Therefore, it shows little in the way of wintry precip until the low pulls away on Monday with some brief NW flow type snow for the mountains. The thermal profiles suggest more of a mixed p-type scenario if enough low level cold air could move in Sunday night. The GFS still has widespread precip but is also colder with the low track closer to the Gulf Coast. That said, the cold air doesn`t move in until the back side of the low keeping any wintry precip confined mainly to the mountains, with some spillage out across the I-40 corridor Sunday night and again Monday night as the low is departing. The GFS indicates a potential mixed p-type problem initially turning to a rain or snow scenario as the colder air moves in. The GFS ensemble mean shows a rain or snow scenario with up to an inch of snow outside of the mountains with up to 4 inches across the mountains, but there is a wide spread in individual members across the area. Given the above problems, have limited any p-type concerns to rain or snow, but this is subject to change as the event approaches. Also, limited PoP to the chance range for any one period. The models also show a lingering inverted surface trough across the area for Tuesday. The ECMWF is dry while the GFS has light precip over the area in response. I have kept the forecast dry for now given the uncertainty. Model blend temps have come in warmer through the period, but blended with the previous forecast to avoid some big changes in the forecast. The warmer temps would limit the amount of wintry precip outside of the mountains as well. However, there are good indications of a cooling trend through the period.

Well the northwest and Midwest are having epic winters. Cold and winter storms just set up west and north of us this year. Maybe we still get something this year. If not, maybe next year

GSP keeps some idea of a wintry event next week for parts of the area. BTW...where are all the regular posters? This place is as dead as Williams Brice in the 4th quarter of Clemson - South Carolina game. The EC forecasts a stronger high to our north channeling in cool air as the deep moisture passes Tuesday and Tuesday night. Thus quite cool and quite wet with some wintry precip possible for northern parts of the mountains and foothills. Low pressures riding a front out of the Gulf will not move east of our area until early Thursday which is after the end of the current forecast period.

From GSP AFD long term forecast: Monday night thru Tuesday...the cool air may set the stage for a wintry mess with the next storm system. The southern stream jet will start to amplify and lift northward slightly, placing strong entrance region upper divergence over the Southern Plains. So the signal is fairly strong on a very wet storm system developing somewhere across the southern states, bringing plenty of moisture into the region around New Day 7. Both the EC and GFS show a strong CAD developing and thicknesses supporting a mixed bag of precip types across much of the NC mountains and the I-40 corridor to the east. PoPs ramp back up to high-end chc to likely with temps mainly in the 30s to mid 40s.

You know what that silly clown map reminds me of? The 93 Superstorm......aaahhh the memories. I guess that's all we're left with now!

Well I just renewed my American Weather subscription for another year. If I don't get any snow by the end of March, can I get a refund?

Right on cue, the NAO looks to go negative at the end of the month, hopefully soon enough to give the SE one more opportunity for a winter storm. More than likely it just means another cold wet spring. It seems like I have put down mulch and a aerated my yard in a cold rain each spring for the last 5 years. LOL https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml

Sorry. Just being sarcastic with something I saw posted on Facebook earlier today.

Good news snow lovers! Some of my S.C. friends told me that WYFF said yesterday that the cold weather is over for this winter and an early spring is coming.

I can't wait for CR to post these graphics in a month when it shows our annual springtime negative NAO!

Well at least this weekend's storm looks to lay down some pretty good snow in the Midwest, on top of some areas that just got snow earlier this week. This should lay down the tracks for the cold air to come south without a lot of moderation. I know what the ops are showing but I am still not a 100% convinced the system late next week goes as far north as modeled. A lot of moving parts in play after this weekend make it hard to have faith in any specifics beyond 5 days. We do know, however, that there will plenty of cold air, s/w's entering the west and more favorable indices. I wouldn't jump off the cliff just yet.....

Sure hope the latter comes to fruition Grit. The CPC 14 day outlook sucks this afternoon, although the NAO does look to go negative at the end. Of course, the possibility of a winter storm in the southeast this weekend shows how quickly things can change around here! Now, if only the Tigers can make a good showing tonight I'll be happy with whatever happens over the next couple of weeks....

In my 7 years on here I have never started a thread. Maybe I can bring the MoJo. Indices and forecasts seem to be lining up for a wintry January in the Southeast.

For those interested, here is the AFD from KGSP: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Yep! They have a difficult job covering three different geographical areas and they are the best IMO. Just look at the complexity of this one event....