hawkeye_wx

This system is trending away from being a powerful hurricane over the open Caribbean and toward being a rain maker for Central America. The GFS has abandoned its earlier scenario of a quicker spin-up and stall (or even an eastward track) over the open water. The system is pretty broad and weak this morning, and south of earlier GFS runs. The ICON and AI Euro are showing a scrape of Honduras followed by Sara getting buried deep in the Yucatan.

The model trend is toward a farther west track. The non-GFS models had already trended to a track with significant Yucatan interaction. Tonight's GFS, while still east of the other models, now also shows a track into the Yucatan. The major difference between the GFS and other models is how quickly the system organizes. The GFS is much more aggressive, exploding the storm by Thursday night. Other models keep it weaker and drift it farther to the west before stalling.

The track of this system is very unclear. Where, exactly, it develops and stalls will determine the direction in which it tracks. If this point is a hair farther east, the storm gets pulled east before turning back to the west and nw. If this point is a hair farther west, it doesn't get pulled east, but instead heads west/nw into the Yucatan. The latest op Euro has flipped from the former to the latter. The new run develops the storm farther west and south, so it scrapes Honduras and moves westward into the Yucatan.

It appears there will be multiple forces trying to push and pull this system in different directions. The latest GFS pulls it nw then north and ne across the keys. The Euro has a stronger trough digging to the northeast, so the storm gets pulled east first, then a ridge builds in and it goes back west. How quickly it develops and how strong it gets will also factor in.

It looks like there's a pretty decent chance the Caribbean system will try to develop. How strong it gets may come down to how much land interaction there is. Models are showing it at least scraping Central America.

The op Euro and AI Euro have given up on the sw turn into the Bay of Campeche. They agree with the GFS now.

The 12z Euro no longer weakens Rafael in the gulf. In fact, it actually strengthens as it moves through the gulf. It remains pretty far south, away from the shear. It turns west and then southwest into the Bay of Campeche, almost a reverse Milton track.

965 mb now..... the flight wind is about 92 kt, so nothing outrageous, yet.

974 mb, 88 kt flight level wind 4 mb drop in about 90 minutes

The new recon plane found a 978 mb pressure, an 8 mb drop since the last recon plane left several hours ago.

Latest pass says 986 mb with a 79 kt flight level wind. Rafael has been upgraded to a hurricane by the NHC.

The core is coming together nicely, now. Convection is beginning to pinwheel around the eye. The Grand Cayman radar shows the center well. https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/rafael24/Rafael_5Nov24_Cayman.gif

Ok, it's getting pretty nuts here with regard to rain. Yesterday, models had pushed much of the last round of rain well to our east, leaving only a couple tenths for us along the dry low track. So what happened? I got another 1.49". We got a few tenths last evening, then the models really missed a narrow moderate to heavy band that popped up right through Cedar Rapids this morning into early afternoon. My 12-day total is a whopping 7.16". It's crazy how we've flipped from desert to rain forest in such a short period.

We are finally seeing strengthening. The convection has improved around the center, and now the recon plane just found 73 kt flight-level wind and 989 mb.

Despite the obvious improvement in the satellite presentation, Rafael is still not strengthening at all. Recon just found 994 mb, so no change. It needs bigger, more robust, convection, not little puffs that quickly die out.

The GFS still wants to pop another hurricane in the western Caribbean in a week or so.

The pressure is holding steady around 994 mb for now. It is still working on getting deeper convection around the center, which has been lacking.

My rain total last night through this afternoon is 2.02". We underperformed all morning, but a heavy batch at the end really boosted my total. My 10-day total is up to 5.66". Our deficit from seven weeks of no rain has pretty much been wiped out. We may get a bit more rain Monday night, but most of the rain over the next couple days should be southeast.

I got an inch overnight, going for another inch today from the second wave. My area has done extremely well over the last ten days.

The drought map should show major improvement from the Red River to the Great Lakes in a couple weeks.

Like last week, the heavy rain band set up over Cedar Rapids. I finished with 2.53". Eight days ago my October total was 0.00". I will finish the month with 3.64".

The GFS and Euro are showing major rain across the region over the next eight days as a western trough spits out several chunks of energy, with the gulf wide open.

The Oct 1-31 Total Precip map will have a lot more blue from Kansas to Wisconsin.

It's currently looking good for another 1" rain event across my area Wednesday afternoon and evening as a front moves through and a wave lifts northeastward along the front.

Our normal high temp is now 56º and the normal low is 36º. The low temp Monday and Tuesday nights is expected to be 66º and 69º.