hawkeye_wx

Despite the obvious improvement in the satellite presentation, Rafael is still not strengthening at all. Recon just found 994 mb, so no change. It needs bigger, more robust, convection, not little puffs that quickly die out.

The GFS still wants to pop another hurricane in the western Caribbean in a week or so.

The pressure is holding steady around 994 mb for now. It is still working on getting deeper convection around the center, which has been lacking.

My rain total last night through this afternoon is 2.02". We underperformed all morning, but a heavy batch at the end really boosted my total. My 10-day total is up to 5.66". Our deficit from seven weeks of no rain has pretty much been wiped out. We may get a bit more rain Monday night, but most of the rain over the next couple days should be southeast.

I got an inch overnight, going for another inch today from the second wave. My area has done extremely well over the last ten days.

The drought map should show major improvement from the Red River to the Great Lakes in a couple weeks.

Like last week, the heavy rain band set up over Cedar Rapids. I finished with 2.53". Eight days ago my October total was 0.00". I will finish the month with 3.64".

The GFS and Euro are showing major rain across the region over the next eight days as a western trough spits out several chunks of energy, with the gulf wide open.

The Oct 1-31 Total Precip map will have a lot more blue from Kansas to Wisconsin.

It's currently looking good for another 1" rain event across my area Wednesday afternoon and evening as a front moves through and a wave lifts northeastward along the front.

Our normal high temp is now 56º and the normal low is 36º. The low temp Monday and Tuesday nights is expected to be 66º and 69º.

Like Cyclone, I was fortunate to have the heavy band set up over me. I finished with 1.11".

The NWS forecast said 38º this morning. I put my flower pots in the garage just to be safe. It was already 36º at bedtime and I woke up to 31º. Tonight is our first chance of good rain in two months. However, how much we'll get remains a mystery. Models are all over the place... from barely anything at all to 1.5". It's possible all the rain misses east and south.

A line of showers just moved through. It had lightning, but with such dry air the rain was extremely light. I only got a trace.

The GFS shows no less than six fronts moving through over the next sixteen days. ZERO rain from any of them. This is crazy. Two months with no rain.

Well, it appears we won't know Oscar's exact strength because recon is done and there is not another one on the way. The eye will likely move into Cuba without more recon data.

There is a recon plane out there, but for some reason it stopped flying through the center a few hours ago.

Pressure is down another 2 mb to 989 mb in the last hour. Hurricane Oscar 2:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 19Location: 21.4°N 70.6°WMoving: W at 12 mphMin pressure: 989 mbMax sustained: 80 mph Hurricane Oscar Special Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 200 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 This is a special advisory to update the initial and forecast intensity for Oscar and current watches and warnings. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission is currently flying through the system, and in their second southwest-to-northeast leg found 700 mb flight level winds of 76 kt, and a minimum central pressure of 989 mb. The plane also reported a very small 3 n mi wide eye. A dropsonde recently launched in the northern quadrant also had a 150 m boundary layer mean wind of 80 kt. A blend of these data supports upgrading Oscar to a hurricane this advisory with maximum sustained winds of 70 kt. The intensity forecast has been updated accordingly, and is substantially higher than the previous one. Due to this unexpected higher intensity, the government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands and Southeastern Bahamas. The government of Cuba has also issued a Hurricane Watch for the same area currently under a Tropical Storm Warning.

Wow! "Tiny" might not adequately describe Oscar's inner core. This may be a new record. Wilma's eye, and Milton's eye, shrunk down to 4 nm.

We have a hurricane, or close to it. Recon found 991 mb with a dropsonde and 73 kt flight level wind. Given the rotating hot towers in the tiny inner core, I figured it was way lower than the 1007 mb the NHC initiated it with.

Recon measured about 1003 mb in Nadine's center as it nears landfall in Belize.

Recon just took off from St. Croix and is headed into Oscar.

It's not often we see a system trying to build an eyewall before it's even designated a tropical cyclone.

The NHC slapping a 60% on this system only one hour ago is about as conservative as it gets. This appears to be a rapidly-organizing tropical storm.

The GFS is popping a brief TD or low-end TS in the nw Caribbean Saturday morning before it moves into Belize. The NHC has raised it to 40%.