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hawkeye_wx

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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx

  1. hawkeye_wx
    This evening's regionals/CAMs have not backed off at all. In fact, every model so far has inched farther north. (NAM/3kNAM/FV3/RDPS/HRRR/RRFS)
  2. hawkeye_wx
    Can always count on the 18z NAM/3kNAM to go extra weenie.
  3. hawkeye_wx
    I would, of course, love for the 18z HRRR to be correct, but it is likely too strong and juiced. It has a 1004 mb low, whereas the globals have a 1008-1012 mb low. This HRRR run would probably finish with 16+" in Cedar Rapids, which I very much doubt. Half of that is more likely. The CAMs will probably come back to earth as the start approaches.
  4. hawkeye_wx
    The Euro is stronger/sharper with the shortwave at 500 mb than the rest of the models. I was expecting the 12z run to fade south and weaker just a bit, but it actually ticked farther north. Here are the resulting snow maps for the south UK, middle GFS, and north Euro.
  5. hawkeye_wx
    Long-duration event, mostly light to moderate snow, with wind, the ratio in my yard is going to suck. I'm hoping for at least 6 inches.
  6. hawkeye_wx
    The shift back south is real across all models. Probably cut the totals by 30%, though.
  7. hawkeye_wx
    I'm sitting pretty good this morning, but this is still four days away, which is a long time in the model world.
  8. hawkeye_wx
    Some models had been dumping a bunch of the energy into the sw US and cutting it off, but now they are all trending toward ejecting it into the midwest this weekend. The Friday night snow is looking a bit lighter, but now a stronger low blows up the snow across Iowa Saturday into Saturday night. As long as it doesn't trend any farther north, which every model this morning has done, I should be good.
  9. hawkeye_wx
    Well, we are back to zero because the Euro just came in way different at the end of the week. Last night the Euro looked like the GFS, but now it has suddenly pulled all the energy back into the western US and pulls a bunch of warm air up into Iowa so we get rain.
  10. hawkeye_wx
    Meanwhile, the Canadian is much weaker and drier with this system, plus it is dry Sunday-Tuesday while the GFS has two more significant events.
  11. hawkeye_wx
    The ICON and GFS are coming in hot this morning for the end-of-week snow event. Both have potential for 6+" across Iowa and Illinois if the rates are heavy enough to counter the warm ground.
  12. hawkeye_wx
    There's plenty of action in the distance. The snow may all end up in the Dakotas and Minnesota, but it's at least some good stuff to track. I certainly won't complain if we get some good showers and storms.
  13. hawkeye_wx
    0.48" here, on the high end of the model range. Up to 0.90" fell on the northeast edge of the city. It came with some decent lightning/thunder.
  14. hawkeye_wx
    The big late-week system is now gone from the GFS. The southwest energy has been slowing while the energy moving along the Canada border has been speeding up and digging a bit more, so the wet cutter gets squashed.
  15. hawkeye_wx
    This would be nice, but some models are hinting at suppression. The AI Euro drops little to nothing from north of I-80.
  16. hawkeye_wx
    By far the best northern lights I've ever seen.
  17. hawkeye_wx
    The warmer models were correct for my area. I did not see a single flake.
  18. hawkeye_wx
    0.56" of rain here.
  19. hawkeye_wx
    Far nw Iowa got up to 4" of snow this morning. It is accumulating a little in Ames. It is too warm here as the precip is arriving at peak heating.
  20. hawkeye_wx
    The model trend is for a weaker system as it moves across Iowa. There is no guarantee I'll see any flakes.
  21. hawkeye_wx
    Some models had already been teasing some snow mixing in across Iowa. Now the Euro has finally joined them.
  22. hawkeye_wx
    There used to be a 60-ft tall red maple in my neighbor's backyard. It was too big for our small lots, but it was a beautiful, brilliant red color in fall. The 2020 derecho destroyed it. There is a still a young Fall Fiesta sugar maple in the front yard. So far, the tree has not had good color, although this year it is definitely better.
  23. hawkeye_wx
    The GFS is the only model showing any real snow this weekend around here, but all models show the first big push of arctic air. It looks brief, however.
  24. hawkeye_wx
    Josh has a new post https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1983730201860206979 I can't figure out how to embed an X post.
  25. hawkeye_wx
    0.43" here overnight. My October rain total is 1.58", which is my driest October since 2011.
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