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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx
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June was boring, but the last several weeks have been one of our most interesting summer stretches in years. The recent break has been nice, although it has remained somewhat humid. That is finally over at about 9am this morning when the strong front moves through.
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The pressure has risen all the way up to 930 mb.
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90/80 here in Cedar Rapids. This is as hot as it has been all summer.
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I sure would love to have a plane in there right now. The CDO is looking vicious.
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Erin appears to be strengthening a bit again. The ring around the center has become more uniform and the cloud tops have cooled.
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919 mb extrap, 156 kts FL wind
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Now 922 mb extrap, 156 kts flight level wind. The inner core remains extremely tight, with no sign of any outer wind max beginning to develop.
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Now 925 mb (both extrap and dropsonde)
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6 mb drop in the last 50 minutes.
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Down to 975 mb.
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I got yet another 1.44" of rain from this storm. This was expected to be a totally dry week. My August total is up to 4.32". Over the last six weeks my total is nearly 13 inches.
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2025 Short Range Severe Weather Discussion
hawkeye_wx replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Models did a terrible job forecasting this. The HRRR literally had nothing making it to eastern Iowa only a few hours ago. The RRFS had something small passing across northeast Iowa. -
2025 Short Range Severe Weather Discussion
hawkeye_wx replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Holy cow, what a storm! This reminds me of the derecho. It briefly poured half-inch size hail, then 70 mph wind blasted through. I couldn't even see the houses across the street. Thankfully, our hail was only half-inch size. A spotter only a mile away reported ping-pong ball size. -
For the last six weeks, we have gotten everything. Today was a nothingburger, but the storms have way outperformed the model forecast. It is dark as night right now as the storms move in.
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The latest recon pass found the wind north of the center is up to 72 kts at flight level. The shear has abated and convection is attempting to wrap around the center. It should become a hurricane this afternoon.
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Another MCS rolled through eastern Iowa overnight. I received 0.82". My six-week total is about 11.5". It is very green around here.
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The heavy rain band filled in at the last minute this morning and dumped 1.5-3" across the Cedar Rapids area. I finished with 1.94". This was a massive bust for southern Iowa. Instead of 3-5", as forecasted by the WPC, they got nothing.
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The WPC has a moderate chance for excessive rainfall across southeast Iowa, nw Illinois, and southern Wisconsin this weekend. The forecast has widespread 3-5+ inches across that area. The discussion even mentions isolated 9" totals are possible. DVN thinks 10" is possible.
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1.18" should be my final total. My July total is 8.54", almost the same as last July. The plants and lawns are very lush.
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I got 1.11" of rain overnight from a couple lines. Nothing too strong, but there was some solid lightning/thunder. The global models did not handle this system very well.
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The sirens went off at 2am here for severe wind, but it only reached about 50 mph. The line was also racing through, so we only got 0.33" of rain. Since mid month we've been very active, but we are only getting small amounts from each event.
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2025 Short Range Severe Weather Discussion
hawkeye_wx replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
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The overnight MCS scoured out the extreme humidity across Iowa, so we are not going to get the 80º dew point today. It's low to mid 70s instead.
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2025 Short Range Severe Weather Discussion
hawkeye_wx replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Most of Iowa didn't get much. It was mostly gusted-out weak crap as the cold pool dove into the humid air. Tonight may be the same -- strong up in SD/MN, but dying remnants down here.