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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx

  1. Two more recon planes are on the way. The first is currently passing by the northern Bahamas, should be in the eye in a couple hours.
  2. The new recon plane, originating in Biloxi, reached northern Florida and then turned around and flew back, so it's going to be several hours before we get another recon in there.
  3. The euro has gone stronger with the shortwave moving in from the midwest.
  4. This plane made six pass-throughs, which is more than is typical for a storm way out over the open ocean.
  5. The latest recon pass has the eye at 25 miles wide.... a pretty good size.
  6. Final recon pass for a few hours says 973 mb.
  7. 12z GFS shows a notably weaker weakness in the ridge this run vs last night.
  8. First morning recon pass.... extrap pressure 969 mb, 98 kts flight level, 94 kts SFMR.
  9. The 00z euro pretty much reverted back to last night's 00z. It has landfall Monday night near Port St. Lucie.
  10. 00z UK nearly identical to the GFS.... landfall in south Florida Monday night, continues moving wnw inland. Final recon pass is 979 mb, wind a bit lower than the strongest measurements a couple hours ago.
  11. That's a pretty decent wnw bend this evening. I don't recall any models showing anything other than nw tonight.
  12. New recon pass...... 94 kts flight level, 85 kts SFMR, no flag.
  13. Recon describes the eye as C15, so that suggests the tiny inner eyewall dissipated this afternoon and the outer wall contracted somewhat. I think the earlier vort message said something like C04-25.
  14. Dropsonde says hold on.... only 979 mb with a 16 kt wind... so maybe 978 mb.
  15. The Air Force plane has the extrap pressure at about 977 mb. It also found 79 kts SFMR in the northeast quad. I thought an eyewall replacement cycle was well underway, but I'm not seeing much of a double wind max, if any.
  16. The visible loop suggests the tiny inner eye is mostly gone, although just in the last ten minutes a little puff just bubbled up at the very center.
  17. 12z euro ensemble (posted to Twitter by Ryan Maue) Quite a few remain offshore, including the average.
  18. Watching these models from run to run is a mental workout. Yesterday morning's Euro had Dorian well into the eastern gulf Tuesday morning. This morning's run has it in the northern Bahamas. Meanwhile, the UK speeds way up and has landfall on Sunday. That's an enormous disparity in forward motion. *sigh*
  19. The euro no longer tracks westward into the gulf, though. Like the UK, it now breaks the ridge down right about the time it reaches Florida, so Dorian slows and turns up the peninsula. If the ridge breaks down earlier or Dorian is slower, it's possible it could turn before reaching the coast.
  20. Curiosity-wise, I wonder what's up with the HMON model. It strengthens Dorian to 951 mb by Friday, then weakens it to 993 mb over the weekend. It did the same thing last run.
  21. No dropsonde data yet, but recon extrap pressure is 993 mb.
  22. Per recon, the center is directly under that hot tower.
  23. 00z UK has Dorian farther northeast for a while, as expected, but still turns it west and then slowly southwest into the far nw Bahamas. It's moving pretty slowly by that time, so I'm not sure what it would do after that.
  24. The center is actually under some convection this evening, but recon is finding no improvement in the structure. The pressure is sitting at about 1006 mb and the wind is minimal tropical storm.