Met1985
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Everything posted by Met1985
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Yeah that has been the case for several runs now.
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The GFS just keeps getting worst and worst with the snow totals. Im not sure if it is just that far off or it sees something else... But it's pretty pathetic.
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Yep what he said lol. I was thinking the same thing.
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Nice to have another Haywood resident on here and yes I agree usually from central to southern Haywood does great in these type situations thats why I dont understand the snow hole that is being shown on some of the models. But non the less im going with my gut feeling and just knowing these mountains a lot better than some model...
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Yeah good stuff fellas. All great reasons and great discussion on here. Well we will see how things pan out today and early tomorrow morning.
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Oh yeah ill agree there is definitely a storm signal especially for us. Its just frustrating to see how the models seem to be struggling with how much and where. Like I said maybe today things get ironed out finally.
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See this is what I don't understand is some of those holes in the SW mountains should be getting a lot more than it shows. Maybe something is up with the algorithm but this map looks off to me..
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Im suspect anytime a models spits out huge numbers like that. Shoot how many times have we been burnt? I know I sound pessimistic but heck im as excited as yall are but I want to be sure of whats coming. Again no pipe dreams here only concrete meteorology.
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Yeah the issue I have is the inconsistency of the models. Usually they will latch onto something and stick with that. Maybe today is that day but the NAM has been consistently good for us but I dont want to just take the best look for us and say thats what its going to do. Hopefully we will see some kind of agreement today.
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The overnight models dont really impress me with this storm. The GFS looks very moisture starved to me, the NAM looks decent and the euro has cut back on totals a lot. Again to me not good signs if you are looking for a big snow fellas.
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Great stuff and thanks for dropping in time to time.
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The low just seems to be void of a really moisture wrapped system... This is why I said I would wait until Tuesday to really look at things. I've been down this road several times but the trends with the global models have not been great. Saying that we need to see how things play out and keep a level head.
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We have a rain/snow mix this morning. I feel like the freezing line will fall through the day.
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I find it comical how media outlets away from the mountains are latching onto this potential snow outside of WNC so much currently. I mean don't get me wrong I hope they all get hammered but it rarely happens that way.
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Yeah thats really good. Still surprised at no advisory but thats ok the snow is coming.
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I would not be surprised to see an advisory sent out for late tonight into tomorrow.
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Also lets not overlook the small event tomorrow. It looks to be trending a bit more moist currently. Sure it won't be much but it will bring back a wintery appeal to many I think in the upslope regions.
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Well as we all know with these low pressure systems sliding south of us we are always in the drivers seat. Im going to dive in more tomorrow after another round of runs but I am optimistic about the end of the week storm at least.
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Well it looks like we will see some rain and snow starting tomorrow morning changing to all snow by the afternoon for the favored areas. May end up with about an inch or two in the favored spots. At least getting back to a wintry appeal until the models hone in on the end of the weeks system.
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As WNCsnow mentioned that the cold source is lacking very much in Canada. The cold air source is stuck on the other side of the globe. In our region again we look to score the best from the lack of cold air around. We get some of our best snows right around 30 degrees. But this may mean thread the needle scenarios in our neck of the woods or we may not score at all which can happen.
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Yeah man for sure. When I started making the mountain thread this is exactly what I had in mind. Great conversation, level headedness, and some great mountain discussion.
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Thanks guys. I think we do great over here keeping a level head about things. We really do have a great group.
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Things do look up starting in about a week but lets get there first. This group is not about pipe dreams and unicorns. The pattern looks to really become active in about a week. We will go from there.
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January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
Met1985 replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Great stuff Jeff and I can remember in winters past were an SSW did not correlate to cold on this side of the globe. Im very skeptical of anything significant again on this side... -
Yep big bust here as well with temps around 40 and currently we have dipped back down to 29 already.
