Chicago WX

Models pulled the rug on MSP. Hate to see it. Still a solid storm, but what might have been. Also, models were awful with temps looking at LAF. They're at 39˚ currently. Most models had them in the 60's right now. 12z Euro had them in the low 60's all afternoon. Woof. EDIT: zone forecast for today. TIPPECANOE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF LAFAYETTE AND WEST LAFAYETTE 328 AM EST WED FEB 22 2023 TODAY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT AS COOL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH, BECOMING SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.

6z Euro nudged south a tad with the overall snowfall totals. Still, MSP sitting pretty close to the highest totals. Amazing consistency on the models.

Crappy winters don't get to me anymore. I've lived through enough of them to know they happen. Snow is and will always be my favorite though. I've seen some pretty awesome winters, and checked off a lot of my "bucket list" wants. Only thing left is a 2 footer. We'll see if it ever happens. But having a job that works outside, the extremes are what I don't care for anymore. Super cold, super hot/humid, super windy, icy conditions...f*ck that noise. And rain...just pure hatred. Last Thursday's storm and this upcoming Wednesday with the cold soaking rain...the absolute worst. Outside of wishing for snow, I'm onboard for 75˚ and sunny most of the time. May need to move though.

Models have been remarkably locked in on MSP seeing an all-timer. Can't remember seeing such consistency on the models for several days. That sure doesn't happen in these parts, thats for sure, lol. Anyways, here's their top 5 snowstorm list. This one is a lock to be inside that list, as long as both parts are considered one system, which I assume it will. 1) 28.4" Oct 31-Nov 3, 1991 2) 21.1" Nov 29-Dec 1, 1985 3) 20.0" Jan 22-23, 1982 4) 17.4" Jan 20-21, 1982 5) 17.1" Dec 10-11, 2010 As well, here's their top 5 3-day total snowfall list: 1) 34.6" Jan 20-22, 1982 2) 27.8" Oct 31-Nov 2, 1991 3) 26.7" Oct 30-Nov 1, 1991 4) 21.7" Jan 22-24, 1982 5) 21.1" Nov 29-Dec 1, 1985 And finally, MSP sits at 55.6" for the season. This storm may put them close to 80" by the time it's done, if all really goes to plan. And with the pattern locked into them seeing several more snow events in the next 2 weeks, their season snowfall record is in serious jeopardy. They may "2007-08 MSN" their possibly former #1. List below... 1) 98.6" in 1983-84 2) 95.0" in 1981-82 3) 88.9" in 1950-51 4) 86.6" in 2010-11 5) 84.9" in 1916-17

yes.

Haha, yep. And then the epic JB winter forecast bust the next winter. March 2001 storm. That was entertaining.

lol, yeah. Of course Jan and Feb 2001 didn't torch, the pattern just went dormant. And the only "real" 3 events during those two months were rainers.

Yeah, earlier ensemble runs were hinting at the potential for our GHD event, but that went poof. Our luck has been sh*tty with these favorable periods. And they've been fleeting chances. Alas, thats how it goes sometimes. Especially in clunker winters. We'll see if we can pull a rabbit out the rest of the way...

Don't think February is gonna save us again, like the last couple of winters. 3rd year Ninas can be tough. Oh well, maybe we can find one decent event the rest of the way. Otherwise, here's to a better one for next winter.

Yeah, this thread made me go back and look at my photos from that winter. Here's one my mom took on February 17 in IKK. There's a large bush under that lamp post. That winter finished it off, BTW. Crazy snow, epic winter scene.

One of the most impactful winter storms to ever hit the state of Indiana. About 2/3 of the state received at least 10" of snowfall. Strong winds and the plummeting temps made travel nearly impossible. December was solid, but this event really seemed to kick off what would become one of the coldest and snowiest winters on record in the Midwest. Great times.

RGEM still well south of the NAMs. Banking on my weenie band tomorrow morning of course.

Ride it. Canadians like that mini band too. Not happening, but would be quite the gift.

Baby steps with that model.

NAM coming back to reality

Yeah, these are fun. Current one was mixed flakes and graupel and then went to just big ass flakes. Just pounding.

Didn’t last long, but that was rip City for about 15 minutes. My visibility was 2 blocks at best for awhile.

Going to need the RGEM to score the coup. 6z still solid for N IL. Otherwise, everything is wagons north again (6z Nams, 6z HRRR, and 9z RAP, and 6z GFS slightly north). Think everyone had an idea this would go a bit further north in the end, but some of these moves are stupid in the past 24 hours. Still time for more changes I guess...

Places in NE and IA went from warning snows to pretty much nada in one run of the NAM. Awesome model.

Might even be north of MSN. What a move.

0z NAM looks quite a bit north.

Nah. Won't see a snowflake most likely. Just a cold rain.

lol, hope it works out. Easy first, and last call for MBY. 0.0".

And maybe it’s voo doo meteorology, but we’ve had a few medium range modeled hits that went to hell in the short range. Why not try something different and reel one in from the south. Either way, system looks like it could be messy with zones of snow, mix, and rain…wherever it ends up falling.