Chicago WX

Preview of update after tonight's 0z NAM above.

This is a clown show. I guess MBY being on the line of various model solutions, I've noticed the shifts more, but come on...

RAP is always amped way northwest at this range. Same with the HRRR usually. Wouldn’t put any trust in it until like 12 hours out. Just my opinion of course.

That’s f*cking brutal

NAM has 10” for KMCI. GFS has them smoking cirrus.

RGEM a trash model, but this depiction is believable. Airmass is garbage. Look at most models, areas to the west that miss out are sitting in the mid 40's on Friday. It's all dynamic cooling for those that see any snow. And even then, temps are like 32-34. It's probably going to be a much more narrow snow band than being shown. Of course for who...who knows.

White flag time. Euro and NAM teaming up. Deadly combo. Gonna be a good one for CID, MSN, MKE, and GRB. The usual suspects. Probably not enough time for MSP to reel this one in, but who knows. I can’t wait until we go suppression depression in mid March. Enough of the f*cking rain.

9.9” on the season here, but point stands. Awful winter. Alas, we’re cooked here with this system. Just another 34 and heavy rain incoming. Terrible, terrible, terrible…

6z NAM is one for the books. 23" in 6 hours in Iowa. I mean, come on. We're still a ways away from verification, but a little credit to the GFS so far. It's been closer to what's being modeled than the other models. Certainly not perfect though. Euro has been junk again. From the southern outlier to now the northern one (sans the worthless NAM). Alas, I'm all set on cold rainers for awhile, so hoping for a whiff south at this point. Go Ukie and Canadian.

These are all for entertainment purposes of course, but individual GEFS total snow accumulations. Good number of big dogs in various locales. #16 is my pick to click.

12z EPS north. Mean total QPF of 1.00" makes it close to IKK. Hmmm Lots of sub 980 lows in there. The 957 just to the west of LAF though…

Non-event for here. At least it won't be another rainer. GFS/GEFS versus the world. We know how that goes. Though, 6z EPS bumped north, but the same head fake happened with yesterdays 18z run too. Northern goal posts are probably a STL to IND on northeast line for something measurable, but smart money is further south. Looks good for the Ohio crew ultimately.

Never had hope here. Unless you're like Hoosier and rode the 48 hour HRRR and RAP. Tomorrow's quick torch looks like a non-event too. What a miserable system on the cold/wet side.

1983-84 is their #1. 1982-83 was good there (74.4"), but ranks #13. Their top 10, BTW... 98.6" in 1983-84 95.0" in 1981-82 88.9" in 1950-51 86.6" in 2010-11 84.9" in 1916-17 84.1" in 1991-92 81.3" in 1961-62 79.0" in 1951-52 78.4" in 1966-67 78.3" in 2017-18 77.1" in 2018-19

True. But seems the models usually underplay temps when you're on (close to) the line. LAF went the other way. Bad beat for them.

Models pulled the rug on MSP. Hate to see it. Still a solid storm, but what might have been. Also, models were awful with temps looking at LAF. They're at 39˚ currently. Most models had them in the 60's right now. 12z Euro had them in the low 60's all afternoon. Woof. EDIT: zone forecast for today. TIPPECANOE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF LAFAYETTE AND WEST LAFAYETTE 328 AM EST WED FEB 22 2023 TODAY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT AS COOL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH, BECOMING SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.

6z Euro nudged south a tad with the overall snowfall totals. Still, MSP sitting pretty close to the highest totals. Amazing consistency on the models.

Crappy winters don't get to me anymore. I've lived through enough of them to know they happen. Snow is and will always be my favorite though. I've seen some pretty awesome winters, and checked off a lot of my "bucket list" wants. Only thing left is a 2 footer. We'll see if it ever happens. But having a job that works outside, the extremes are what I don't care for anymore. Super cold, super hot/humid, super windy, icy conditions...f*ck that noise. And rain...just pure hatred. Last Thursday's storm and this upcoming Wednesday with the cold soaking rain...the absolute worst. Outside of wishing for snow, I'm onboard for 75˚ and sunny most of the time. May need to move though.

Models have been remarkably locked in on MSP seeing an all-timer. Can't remember seeing such consistency on the models for several days. That sure doesn't happen in these parts, thats for sure, lol. Anyways, here's their top 5 snowstorm list. This one is a lock to be inside that list, as long as both parts are considered one system, which I assume it will. 1) 28.4" Oct 31-Nov 3, 1991 2) 21.1" Nov 29-Dec 1, 1985 3) 20.0" Jan 22-23, 1982 4) 17.4" Jan 20-21, 1982 5) 17.1" Dec 10-11, 2010 As well, here's their top 5 3-day total snowfall list: 1) 34.6" Jan 20-22, 1982 2) 27.8" Oct 31-Nov 2, 1991 3) 26.7" Oct 30-Nov 1, 1991 4) 21.7" Jan 22-24, 1982 5) 21.1" Nov 29-Dec 1, 1985 And finally, MSP sits at 55.6" for the season. This storm may put them close to 80" by the time it's done, if all really goes to plan. And with the pattern locked into them seeing several more snow events in the next 2 weeks, their season snowfall record is in serious jeopardy. They may "2007-08 MSN" their possibly former #1. List below... 1) 98.6" in 1983-84 2) 95.0" in 1981-82 3) 88.9" in 1950-51 4) 86.6" in 2010-11 5) 84.9" in 1916-17

yes.

Haha, yep. And then the epic JB winter forecast bust the next winter. March 2001 storm. That was entertaining.

lol, yeah. Of course Jan and Feb 2001 didn't torch, the pattern just went dormant. And the only "real" 3 events during those two months were rainers.

Yeah, earlier ensemble runs were hinting at the potential for our GHD event, but that went poof. Our luck has been sh*tty with these favorable periods. And they've been fleeting chances. Alas, thats how it goes sometimes. Especially in clunker winters. We'll see if we can pull a rabbit out the rest of the way...

Don't think February is gonna save us again, like the last couple of winters. 3rd year Ninas can be tough. Oh well, maybe we can find one decent event the rest of the way. Otherwise, here's to a better one for next winter.