Chicago WX

3-4 wintry shots in the short to medium range, using ensemble guidance (EPS and GEFS). 1/22-23 looks like a light deal. 1/25-26 moderate event, has potential higher ceiling Maybe a clipper-ish type system somewhere in-between the above and below 1/30-31 same as 1/25-26, but too far out to have much confidence I wouldn't get too high or too low with the op runs right now, as they're essentially just another ensemble member in the medium/long range. Just my opinion, but I'd rather be north of the modeled snow swath in the "long" short and medium range at this point, based off pattern on the ensembles. Regardless, best potential for a sustained wintry pattern (longer than 5 days) for a lot of us this winter.

Easy final call of a T. Shutout on the table too.

I thank you for the sentiment. To recap yesterday and today. The worst conditions I’ve ever worked in. My route this weekend is on the western side of town. The blowing and drifting yesterday was epic. Less than a block visibility at times for me. The cold was intense. I wore 2 pairs of gloves, and still had a touch of frost bite on the tips of my fingers. I’ll be alright. Today, it’s still very gusty, but there’s not much snow blowing around. Not sure there’s much left, lol. Regardless, many spots with 1-3 four drifts. It’s tricky getting around. All of this with 2.5” of snow. I can only imagine what a foot would’ve been like…

Wild conditions here. Visibility in town is around 3-4 blocks. Roads are total shit. Can’t imagine what it’s like in the sticks. River has flash freezed. Work today is going to be something else. Not sure I have enough layers on.

Some of the worst conditions I’ve worked in, this afternoon. The temp drop and everything freezing over instantly. Ripped snow for a couple hours, lighter stuff otherwise. Hard to get a good measure, but thinking about 2.5” IMBY. Time to warm up!

Pounding here. Good flakes too. Winds gusty. 14 degrees. Good snows Won’t last long, but it’s pretty neat.

I haven’t watched TV weather in ages, but decided to flip on channel 9 this morning. Their “go to” weather model is apparently the IBM Graf model. Lol, interesting. Alek down through Lansing jackpot with 6 and change FWIW.

9% chance for Alek to hit/exceed 8". LOT knows.

I have to work in it. Though hopefully get off before it really gets bad. Even though the snow part will be over tomorrow, the cold and wind part is going to be really "fun" for those of us out in it.

LOT bumped totals an inch for I-55 and east, now 3-5". My p&c now has 3-7". Also considered upgrading the same area to a Blizzard Warning, but don't think it'll quite meet visibility/wind criteria. 9z HRRR and RAP look pretty solid.

A lot of sarcasm. At least from me. Though some are perpetually cranky it seems. Anyways, sometimes it’s fun to try pull out a little more snow in the end, when things have gone off the cliff for a day or two. Hopefully everyone does well enough to have some decent snows tomorrow and Friday.

Easy under on Lansing. Probably mix there.

HRRR and 3k too. Granted, we’re not talking extreme changes, but a little improvement is very appreciated.

So the 0z HRRR was different. Heads up cyclone

lol, yes. And that's just 3 days worth of runs. Euro didn't used to be like that. Remember outside of this timeframe, it was showing an east coast blizzard. Then moved 1000 miles west, and now in the last 3 days is escaping back east. Crazy awful.

Garbage model

Yeah. It all started for me in December 2000. Wondered why we were getting all this snow. First I found NWS AFD’s and then computer models. Had no idea how to read/use them, but kinda figured it out. Then I found the TWC forums. And then someone posted a link to WWBB. And the rest is history.

2000 It was a much simpler time. All we had was the ETA, NGM, AVN, MRF, GGEM...and the Euro ran once a day at 3:00 AM, with like 5 available layers (no QPF). Things have certainly changed.

And no doubt the timing of holiday travel influenced their decision. I get that part.

LOT just issued a Winter Storm Warning for the CWA. Thought they'd go WWA, alas... EDIT: blizzard warning for Porter County ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow and blowing snow producing occasional white out conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph expected. Wind chill values of 25 to 35 below zero expected. * WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Illinois. * WHEN...From noon Thursday to 6 AM CST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Falling or blowing snow may result in white out conditions with zero visibility at times, making travel extremely difficult. Power outages will also be possible as a result of strong wind gusts to 50 mph. Roads will likely quickly become ice covered as temperatures rapidly fall Thursday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 25 to 35 below zero are likely Thursday night through Friday night. Wind chills of this magnitude can cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 20 minutes.

Very paltry. Think T-1" may be a better call at this point. I can see this being just 3-4 hours of arctic sand that blows around into corners. I’d give my odds of a white Christmas at 30% right now.

This piece of crap is (or was) supposed to replace the NAMs I believe. Don't know if thats still in the cards. Regardless, hug it tight Michigan folks.

I'm grasping for straws, but the 12z HRRR ticked totals up in a bit in IL. Farther east, looks like it developed a bit faster, was a slight shift west, versus the 6z run. Might be just timing though. I don't know why I'm still paying attention to this thing.

Maybe with the winds so strong, we can get some of the higher totals to the west and northwest to blow more snow in here helping "bump" totals. But yeah, locking in 1-2" for MBY total. Very short duration of snow and consistent drying trends on the models making me like that call. Hoping for those to the east, that solutions hold and they get buried.