Chicago WX

Tornado siren test right now is a nice touch. Going with a final call of 15” for MBY. Jackpot call in LOT’s CWA is somewhere in Ford County with 19”.

Very nice.

Hey, how much did you get IYBY with that storm that hit Toronto a couple of weeks back?

That being said, that's an easy 20" here if that happened. Assuming the last piece comes through here of course...

We shall see. I’m not buying the trumped up Kuchera totals at all. 10:1 is a good ballpark considering what ratios will start as (low) and end with (little higher). It’s all overrunning for us as the main storm will largely whiff south. And like I said, we will waste some precip on rain. Changeover time will be crucial. But I’ve wrong a million times before…

Think I may willed this a little too far south after last nights NAM. But I’m with you. It’s all overrunning for here now. Second piece looks like scraps. Only caution flag for MBY is how long does the flip to snow take. Going to waste some QPF on rain, so hopefully that all works out. Right now I’m thinking 6-10” for IKK storm total. Foot possible, but everything needs to break right for that to happen. Regardless, looks like an awesome storm for central iL and IN and on east. Would love to see someone pull a 20 spot out of this…

Eh, I was waiting for the north shifts to happen. Too much time on the clock. Would’ve like to see them hold off until later. Oh well. Back to hibernation.

Indeed. Which I now am squarely on. We know how these always go...

cyclone going to reel in another big dog. And Hawkeye is starting to get interested.

Good to see you Mike. Looks like this one has brought us both out of hiding.

GHD ! GHD !!

Both GHD storms were a sub forum thing. GHD I is also the legendary s**** storm. I lived it.

Euro cave to the GFS. For now

6z Euro did bump north/northwest with part 1. And a bit wetter in the main snow band. If it went past 90 on the op run, looks like part 2 would be a bit further north too. Not enough for up here, but parts of central/southern IL and IN would cash quite nicely I think... And how cool is it that COD has the Euro now with all these variables. 6z and 18z runs too.

Lol, disaster

You have to do some "extra work", and not all the parameters are available for free...but you can see the individuals here. Total precip and snow depth are available. Choose the "switch members" to see the op, control, and all 51 ensembles: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/illinois/m41_acc-total-precipitation/20220204-1800z.html #41 is my favorite...

I liked your comparison to the Dec 2004 event. Longer duration event that threw down some big totals in the OV. Seems this one might have that potential. But, long ways to go…

Around 34 for STL on the 12z Canadian. Crazy amounts on these models. EDIT: Scratch that. Like 36". Insane.

27.4". Why not?

6z GEFS mean total precip and snowfall. Pretty juicy this far out. Regardless, expect shifting of the snow axis from run to run. Just want to see the models keep the same general idea of a sizable system somewhere in the region. Details TBD on Monday and Tuesday, if it's still warranted...

Let’s f*cking do this.

16 at IKK