Chicago WX

Yeah. It all started for me in December 2000. Wondered why we were getting all this snow. First I found NWS AFD’s and then computer models. Had no idea how to read/use them, but kinda figured it out. Then I found the TWC forums. And then someone posted a link to WWBB. And the rest is history.

2000 It was a much simpler time. All we had was the ETA, NGM, AVN, MRF, GGEM...and the Euro ran once a day at 3:00 AM, with like 5 available layers (no QPF). Things have certainly changed.

And no doubt the timing of holiday travel influenced their decision. I get that part.

LOT just issued a Winter Storm Warning for the CWA. Thought they'd go WWA, alas... EDIT: blizzard warning for Porter County ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow and blowing snow producing occasional white out conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph expected. Wind chill values of 25 to 35 below zero expected. * WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Illinois. * WHEN...From noon Thursday to 6 AM CST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Falling or blowing snow may result in white out conditions with zero visibility at times, making travel extremely difficult. Power outages will also be possible as a result of strong wind gusts to 50 mph. Roads will likely quickly become ice covered as temperatures rapidly fall Thursday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 25 to 35 below zero are likely Thursday night through Friday night. Wind chills of this magnitude can cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 20 minutes.

Very paltry. Think T-1" may be a better call at this point. I can see this being just 3-4 hours of arctic sand that blows around into corners. I’d give my odds of a white Christmas at 30% right now.

This piece of crap is (or was) supposed to replace the NAMs I believe. Don't know if thats still in the cards. Regardless, hug it tight Michigan folks.

I'm grasping for straws, but the 12z HRRR ticked totals up in a bit in IL. Farther east, looks like it developed a bit faster, was a slight shift west, versus the 6z run. Might be just timing though. I don't know why I'm still paying attention to this thing.

Maybe with the winds so strong, we can get some of the higher totals to the west and northwest to blow more snow in here helping "bump" totals. But yeah, locking in 1-2" for MBY total. Very short duration of snow and consistent drying trends on the models making me like that call. Hoping for those to the east, that solutions hold and they get buried.

18z NAM was better. I mean, it’s got to start somewhere.

Appreciate the sentiment. Looks like we’ll get a little, so that’ll help the mood.

It’s been no better than the other models. Not what it used to be for sure.

Looking real good for MI. Good luck to you all! Thinking a 1-2” call is solid for MBY. Anything more is gravy right now.

Looks pretty much like a front for those of us in IL. 1-3/2-4” seems like a good call right now. It is what it is. Folks in IN and MI still holding on to hope. Hope no more slips east for them.

Here's the 0z EPS mean total QPF. Pretty much a carbon copy of the 12/18 0z run, interestingly enough. The runs between these two were more generous with the 0.50-0.75" shading farther west in IL. MI has added a bit, BTW, probably owing to the eastern shift/later developing tendencies.

GEFS tend to play follow the leader, but holy crap versus what was projected a day ago...to this below off the current 6z run. And no not saying storm cancel at all, just posting the run.

Majority of the 0z EPS members are leaning left at 0z Friday, alas still a shift east from previous runs.

DAB that all blows away into the Lake leaving you with bare ground on Christmas

18z RGEM goes through Indiana. Solid hit for many. Nothing extreme, but solid.

6z Euro doesn’t look to weaker to me. It’s a tick or two stronger with the slp at 90 hours versus the 0z run at 96. It’s east a bit for sure. I guess QPF is a bit less, but otherwise I think the run would deliver similar results to the 0z run. I mean it’s no GFS, but…yeah.

For sh*ts and giggles, the 6z ICON went east and buries Chicago with 20"+. And my previous post wasn't trying to be sour grapes because MBY isn't in the bullseye anymore. Just trying to have some perspective with this whole situation. Historic storms happen, no doubt about it, but they're also pretty rare for a reason. Alas, hope I'm wrong and some people on here are measuring drifts to their roof lines.

6z was going well west at the end of its clown range. RGEM too, but maybe not as far west. All FWIW. Regardless, I agree with RC about the GFS and not just because its a rainer IMBY now. It kept pulling the historic totals with the Feb system last winter, which was obviously wrong in the end. I mean I guess there's still a chance, but I wouldn't bet on it. December is not usually our (locally) prime time for widespread 12"+ amounts. It's usually January and February. Still, this whole thing has a major vibe to it because of the high wind and extreme cold aspect to it...even if the top amounts are only, let's say 12-14". Even areas that see 4-6" will have a wild ride with the cold/wind part. If I had to pick the locales for the bigger snows right now, I'd go KC up through cyclone's/hawkeye's BY and then up thru WI. Subject to change of course...

Pivot weather has EPS QPF for free, amongst other freebies.

Nice bump in QPF too

What a day of runs. F*cking epic.

Had to come out of hiding with that run. This GFS run and the Euro run from a couple of days ago are the most epic runs I've ever seen on weather models. Snow, wind, and cold combo. Chances of verifying exactly like that are slim, but a person can dream. It's an easy top 5 storm all-time for the region.