Chicago WX

You're the JB of summer forecasting. What are we going with this year, a combo of 1936 and 2012?

0.77". It's ovah. 3.22" now. 2nd place gone. Thursday-Friday system may push this spring out of the top 5 possibly, according to some guidance. We'll see...

^ Best climo

I remember when the concern was the water levels on the Lakes were too low. Wasn't that long ago really...

Models and forecast were awful on rainfall amounts for here for the past 2 days. Way too high. Just been bouts of light rain, adding up to 0.30". Didn't want a ton of rain...don't need it...but a little more would've been better for my new sod in the backyard.

Lol, yes. But with ORD, still doubtful. I’m not sure why I even ran the numbers. But when I did, and compared them to the new normal numbers, I was a bit surprised. A tenth or two here or there, sure. But almost a full degree every month, questionable at best...

Cool, thanks. Like I said in the other post, I know they played with the numbers a bit, but going up almost a full degree for every month is quite...um, interesting. Of course, maybe the values on xmACIS aren't the real/official numbers or something. Don't know...

2.13" total in the stratus. Thankfully this abomination is over. Looking forward to a nice dry week.

I was looking at the new normals for ORD, and noticed something interesting I guess. I went to xmACIS and ran the numbers for the 30 year period, and the mean values on there are a bit different than what NOAA is going with the new official normals. Straight mean average temps are 0.9 cooler on xmACXIS versus NOAA. Precipitation is basically the same. Snowfall is an inch difference. I'm not saying there's a conspiracy or anything, and I know they like to "massage" the normals, but the average temps are kinda especially different. Maybe RC has some intel on the process here... Month: Avg Temp NOAA (xmACIS)...Precip NOAA (xmACIS)...Snowfall NOAA (xmACIS) January: 25.2 (24.2)...1.99 (1.98)...11.3 (11.7) February: 28.8 (27.8)...1.97 (1.97)...10.7 (9.8) March: 39.0 (38.1)...2.45 (2.45)...5.5 (5.1) April: 49.7 (48.8)...3.75 (3.75)...1.3 (1.3) May: 60.6 (59.7)...4.49 (4.49) June: 70.6 (69.7)...4.10 (4.12) July: 75.4 (74.6)...3.71 (3.71) August: 73.8 (73.0)...4.25 (4.24) September: 66.3 (65.5)...3.19 (3.19) October: 54.0 (53.2)...3.43 (3.43)...0.2 (0.2) November: 41.3 (40.4)...2.42 (2.42)...1.8 (1.8) December: 30.5 (29.6)...2.11 (2.10)...7.6 (7.6) Annual: 51.3 (50.4)...37.86 (37.85)...38.4 (37.4)

Nope, no lightning here. Just a cold cold rain...currently 38.8˚ and pouring. After the past couple of weeks worth of rain, don't want to hear about any drought nonsense here.

That random 0.1” around IKK. Regardless of the snow, what an awful cold wet storm for almost mid May.

I ran a 5K and drank a 12 pack of Two Hearted Ale after my shot. But for real, I had about a 12 hour period of feeling tired and sluggish the day after my shot. But by evening I was good to go. Arm was sore for about 2-3 days. Everyone is different though...

Always pull for drought, lol. Summer monsoon in IKK is as big of a lock as Chad Evans calling for a hot summer. This spring has been nice so far, with no big rain events here. But, 1.68" in my stratus yesterday. Though I'm sure your beloved drought monitor will still show impending doom.

We had a guy who wore shorts all the time. Didn’t matter the temperature. And I’m being serious. But he eventually went into management, so now it all makes sense. Cold monsoon continues here. I don’t want to see anymore drought crap for around here for awhile...

Front moved thru here. Rather abrupt temp change. My shorts not working so well now. Thought it was going to hold off until later in the afternoon/evening.

Of course after my last post, snow has picked in intensity. Grass getting almost all covered. Roof tops accumulating too.

Not unless rates pick up here. Just been a steady light snow all morning. Some slushy accums on the grass tips, stairs, etc...but nothing too great.

Snowing here now. Just gonna be a white rainer though...

Anyways, 12z NAM is an acceptable outcome. If we're going to do this...then let's really do this.

Getting the J&J vaccine on Friday at Walgreens. Parents have had their first and are coming up on their second. GF and her mom fully vaccinated too. So my closest circle is about complete.

On a scale from 1 to 10, today is a 0. F*ck this weather.

Pouring rain and sleet. Elevated objects (wires, etc) are iced up, even with the windy conditions. 31˚/26˚ at mi casa. Good thing I got the day off. Time for a nap.

Sleet. 32˚/17˚ at my house. East winds have gusted as high as 43 mph this morning. Just a nasty nasty day.

RC is starting the celebration early this year. Sunday (St. Patrick`s Day) also has an increasing chance to end up dry and seasonable, especially if the bowling ball over the High Plains continues to slow. Official forecast has some low PoPs due to some operational and ensemble members still slightly faster. While it`s several days out, think that trend will be toward consensus of slower ECMWF suite, which would hold rain off until Sunday night at the earliest, and possibly not until Monday. Temperatures will be in the 40s on Sunday for most, though again upper 30s lakeside. Chance PoPs on Monday appear quite reasonable and if this ends up being the day with more widespread light to moderate rain as it appears it could be, temperatures would probably also end up lower than in official forecast. Pattern looks to remain on the active side beyond day 7, with typically low confidence in the details. The current CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks favor temperatures to average out below normal. Castro

Snowiest Februaries for Chicago 1) 29.0" in 2011 2) 27.8" in 1896 3) 26.8" in 2015 4) 26.2" in 1994 5) 22.6" in 1900 T6) 22.5" in 2010 T6) 22.5" in 1967 8) 21.8" in 2008 9) 21.6" in 2021 10) 21.1" in 1901 T11) 20.3" in 2018 T11) 20.3" in 2007 13) 19.8" in 1908 14) 19.7" in 1978 15) 19.5" in 2014 21) 16.1" in 2013 Though there have been some clunkers too, in the past 20 or so. Especially some early-mid 2000's Februaries... 1) T in 2017 T14) 1.5" in 2003 16) 1.8" in 2002 T20) 2.2" in 2001 21) 2.5" in 2006 22) 2.7" in 2005