Certainly not scientific, but I think this is where you want the Euro and Ukie at this stage. In other words, for us in IL, a miss. Both track records of the Europeans in the mid range had been awful lately...
Measured before I left for work this morning, and had 3.5” total for the morning/overnight round. Lightly snowing here all afternoon, but has picked up recently back to fluff balls. Roads have caved again. Great wintry appeal day!
I think there's still potential in the pattern. Wed/Thu looks decent for nice event. And something more substantial in and around V-Day has some support on the ensembles. 6z GEFS below. Granted not unanimous agreement, but when I see the heart shaped height lines to the east, I get reminders of V-Day 2007. I wouldn't punt yet...