Chicago WX

lol, I know. You know me though, nervous to the end. On another note, looping the p-type maps on COD for the 18z NAMs is sorta fun with how the rain/snow transition takes place to the southwest. This whole thing kinda reminds me of 12/5/05, though that one was colder...but boy did it pound quickly.

Trending in the wrong direction . Looking the p-type plots, lots of rainers. 21z will be different. They usually follow whatever the preceding NAM does. And it was better for us. Regardless, 6” is the goal. Hopefully we can get there!

It’s been steady. Hope it’s the king again. But all other models are decreasing snowfall for here, for various reasons. And I’m still a little leery about that much snow, in a short amount of time. I think I’d make a call of 3-6” right now, all things considered.

13 is lucky, right?

Writing is on the wall for us. Too many fail modes present versus succeeding. Just a 30 mile shift and it’s 1.00+ of cold cold rain. Maybe we can squeeze out an inch or two on the front end...with some consolation flakes at the end.

A lot to like if you're in and around Chicago on the 12z NAM. Mid/upper level lows all take a nice track for a band of heavy snow. Think I-80 to the border is going to cash quite nicely. I think most times, these systems like to bleed a little further north than forecasted. Read the overnight AFD from LOT, and they have the heaviest a little farther north...I-88 to far north central IL. And mainly rain from I-80 to the south. Again, I think it's more I-80 on north for the heaviest snows...and the changeover to all rain, after a brief start of frozen, looks solid for the southern CWA.

Meh. At this range, I'd only feel somewhat comfortable if the models were showing a STL/PAH/etc hit. First (maybe final) call... DSM: 8 MSP: 6 CR: 11.94 cyclone: 12 alek: 14 Hoosier: 9.9 SE MI: 10.0 Bowme: 10.0 MSN: 8.0

Yeah, I'm not going to waste much time on this one. Can already see where this one is going to go. This morning's LOT AFD says all snow I-80 and north. So...south of I-80...

Make that 12.6" total as of 6:00 AM. 41.6" on the season there now. Killing it.

Loyal to the American brand, they are.

10.3" (0.47" liquid) at DSM as of midnight. And been snowing since. What a winter for them. Mood snows here this morning. Little bit of freezing drizzle overnight. Glaciated.

After a lull, dry slot #1 if you will, current band started as all sleet, and has now transitioned back to all snow. Coming down pretty good with decent flake size right now. In the end, all of this won't amount to much here...but it'll be all frozen, and fun to work (walk) on tomorrow.

Lol, sell the ice amount. We won’t get that much total precip. And 1-2” of snow looks about right. And then freezing drizzle. All in all, a totally forgettable “storm” for us. The beat goes on...

Indeed. Only one that I can recall that we had in that "drought", in IKK, was the March 1991 storm (infamous central IL/IN ice storm) that dropped dd's here. Note, MDW had six 10"+ storms in those 18 years, but obviously ORD was the official site during that time.

Chicago official 10"+ snowstorms (via LOT) Jan 18-20, 1886: 14.0" Feb 12-14, 1894: 11.0" Dec 27, 1894: 10.1" Feb 6-7, 1895: 13.4" Nov 25-26, 1895: 12.0" Feb 3-4, 1896: 12.5" Feb 12-13, 1896: 12.0" Mar 23-24, 1897: 10.0" Feb 28, 1900: 11.3" Feb 2-4, 1901: 12.7" Dec 12, 1903: 11.3" Feb 18-19, 1908: 12.8" Jan 12-14, 1910: 10.2" Jan 6-7, 1918: 14.9" Mar 30-31, 1926: 12.6" Dec 17-19, 1929: 14.8" Mar 25-26, 1930: 19.2" Mar 7-8, 1931: 16.2" Feb 6-7, 1933: 12.7" Dec 9-10, 1934: 11.3" Jan 30, 1939: 14.9" Dec 10-11, 1944: 10.9" Dec 5-8, 1950: 13.3" Dec 14, 1951: 10.0" Mar 2-3, 1954: 11.8" Dec 19-20, 1960: 12.5" Dec 22-23, 1961: 11.7" Feb 23-25, 1965: 11.5" Jan 26-27, 1967: 23.0" Dec 22-23, 1969: 11.3" Mar 25-26, 1970: 14.3" Apr 1-2, 1970: 10.7" Jan 9-10, 1977: 10.9" Jan 25-27, 1978: 12.4" Feb 6-7, 1978: 10.3" Jan 12-14, 1979: 20.3" Feb 10-11, 1981: 11.2 Jan 1-3, 1999: 21.6" Feb 18, 2000: 11.1" Jan 30-31, 2002: 12.0" Jan 21-23, 2005: 11.2" Feb 13-14, 2007: 10.2" Jan 9-10, 2009: 12.0" Feb 9-10, 2010: 12.9" Jan 31-Feb 2, 2011: 21.2" Dec 31-Jan 2, 2014: 10.9" Jan 4-5, 2014: 11.7" Jan 31-Feb 2, 2015: 19.3" Nov 20-21, 2015: 11.2"

3 day total storms for those. Back when I could easily find hourly obs, those three qualified in my book. I also have the 10"+ list if you need it. That one came straight from LOT's website.

Panic in Iowa. And they’ll all still pull 6”+ easily. LOT has 1-2” total here. Thought that might have been a bit of a lowball, but I can see it. Shouldn’t have to go much farther north to see a good increase though. At least the ground will be white again for a couple of days. That’s a win this winter.

Lol, you’re right. Iowa is the king of all fun weather.

Iowa people are spoiled when 7-8” is garden variety. Many LOT peeps jonesing for that much snow in one storm.

6z on the right. 12z on the left (thru 20z Tuesday)

3km following suit. Fringes always precarious, but funny to toggle between the 6z and 12z runs...and watch places on the northern edge going from warning snows to a trace.

Seems like we play these games of 0z run is south...6z north...12z back south...18z big bump north. Rinse, wash, and repeat.

FWIW, the 12z HRRR is solid for the city. Has the look of some LE action.

The more I think about it, pretty sure that's the formerly banned poster Ytterbium. And way too much BamWx. Well, any is too much. And that pretty much goes for any of these twitter "mets".

LAF gets its good. CMI even better.