Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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Any wobble to the north during the next 12-18 hrs will have a large impact on how much time it spends over the Yucatan.
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Global models have been in the 960s through 980s with the landfall pressure.. HAFS-B is pretty much in line with that this run.
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The band also still looking linear, and shows no sign of trying to bend or wrap around the center
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No sign of a center on radar. Things can change fast though. Hopefully the 18z euro intensity isn't accurate.
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A lot of uncertainty here, the ceiling is high here, but so is the potential for organizational issue. Also I'm not buying the tracks that go inland over the Yucatan yet.
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Icon hits Tampa, Jacksonville and the GA/SC coast pretty hard. Even if it's just a Cat2 with a large wind field that could cause a lot more damage than a Cat4 tracking over Apalachee Bay.
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The GFS and the Hurricane models were all initialized way too strong. The Hurricane models were also initialized way too far NW.
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HAFS B goes sub 900mb FWIW. It would be the first atlantic basin storm to do that since Wilma.
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The modeled track kind of shows it taking an eastward jog out to near Jamaica then turning back wnw into the Yucatan channel.
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6z hurricane models are pretty intense. Some have it a major before entering the Gulf.
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Here's my entirely subjective extrapolation of the circulation center.
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Big connective bust the last few hours. Also I'm seeing hints of a circulation forming east of the NI/HU border on the shortwave IR.
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The GFS and euro agree on the track and 500mb pattern now.
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Eps still has a lot of members near Tampa.
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A lot of difference in the handling of the pattern. Gfs and Ukmet digging a troff along the southern apps, other models, not so much. Cmc and ecmwf AI have a cutoff low over TX/OK
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00z EPS shows a lot more support for a storm in the central gulf.
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Cmc has Cat1 winds in Tampa despite landfall being in the panhandle.
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It's our only trackable threat at the moment. Euro at least has something even though it's pretty weak.
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Getting a bit to close to rhe Nola metro for comfort. Thankfully it won't be as strong as Ida.
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Getting a downpour and plenty of thunder in columbia now.
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Lucked out so far with the worst of this second round staying over Long Island.
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The HRDPS, which was the only model to show a precip bullseye over SW CT, shows another 2-5" across the area already hit, similar to the HRRR.
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Rename the area DC, so it splits in half and misses them.
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Still trying to back-build, with the next round incoming from NJ in a few hours.
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[img]https://i.imgur.com/PDY5zdw.png[/img]Wow, stay away from that Lake Zoer area.
