Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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A lot of difference in the handling of the pattern. Gfs and Ukmet digging a troff along the southern apps, other models, not so much. Cmc and ecmwf AI have a cutoff low over TX/OK
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00z EPS shows a lot more support for a storm in the central gulf.
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Cmc has Cat1 winds in Tampa despite landfall being in the panhandle.
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It's our only trackable threat at the moment. Euro at least has something even though it's pretty weak.
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Getting a bit to close to rhe Nola metro for comfort. Thankfully it won't be as strong as Ida.
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Getting a downpour and plenty of thunder in columbia now.
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Lucked out so far with the worst of this second round staying over Long Island.
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The HRDPS, which was the only model to show a precip bullseye over SW CT, shows another 2-5" across the area already hit, similar to the HRRR.
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Rename the area DC, so it splits in half and misses them.
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Still trying to back-build, with the next round incoming from NJ in a few hours.
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[img]https://i.imgur.com/PDY5zdw.png[/img]Wow, stay away from that Lake Zoer area.
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Looks like the dryslot going to win. Big totals are going to be confined to the 81 crew.
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Just got back from WV. Lots of downpours along I70, radar not doing it justice.
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The 6z Icon keeps the track inland through PA NY and NE. This would mean a lot more impact for the Mid Atlantic and New England. Also note that both the gfs and Icon both handle the NS differently on their 6z runs and show an amped up troff over the great lakes, which allows for this track.
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Nice straight line.
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Looks more like a center reform. The bands have become elongated too.
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Or two centers wobbling around each other. The HAFS-B showed this.
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It's trying to drift back to the west the last few frames.
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So much for all the RI talk
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Results in a much stronger landfall. Edit: Actually only slightly stronger. But further offshore track should in theory give it a lot more time to reorganize.
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UKMET is the northeast outlier for the first time ever.
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Bizarre complex track shown by the GFS and CMC. The troff lifts out and the 250mb flow shifts to the NW due to the ridge over the Central US. Then a tutt forms over FL while a ridge builds over the Carolinas, shifting 250mb winds back to the ESE forcing forcing the storm back to the west. Almost a 180 degree shift in the 250mb winds between hr 60 and 102
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Hurricane Ian made a turn into the SC coast but it wasn't as sharp. I suspect this turn is being overdone by models and it ends up over E NC day 5.
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Kind of a broad circulation and there will be some shear in the northern Gulf. It's hitting a pretty storm surge prone area though. Luckily not very populated.
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Lightning fest
