Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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The CMC has been so bad with storm tracks the last few years, I've stopped looking at it entirely.
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Hurricane models are showing a lot of weakening in the final 15 hrs before landfall. The core gets blasted with dry air on most of them.
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167.5kt seems legit . 200mph=174kt
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Normally I'd say the HAFS-B is crazy but all the Hurricane models are going sub 925mb with this. Thankfully weakening some before landfall.
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Always wonder how the Gulf of Mexico being shaped like a comma seems to help storms in this location organize. Also not the second wind max off the Florida west coast will look similar to the blob east of Hurricane Mathew.
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Not sure why the GFS OP went north while the GEFS seems to have trended south.
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Milton was not supposed to form this quick.
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The damage reports are reminding me a lot of Hurricane Maria. The steep terrain in a lot of these areas enhanced the wind and flooding damage, and is also obstructing relief efforts.
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WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones
Amped replied to 1900hurricane's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Pretty bad situation if it landfalls on the west side of the island where most of the population is. -
Gfs still has a wierd little storm lost and drifting about in the central gulf next week.
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Maybe a false alarm.
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That spot is getting trained in the eyewall, we might have another victim.
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The eye went back to a circular shape.
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Just the Extrap
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Are we taking bets on if when the VAX radar goes down? Update: It stop transmitting at 02:12UTC
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It's got less than 2 hrs left. I think it pretty much holds.
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Does it really matter if it's 941.8 or 940.2? It's just noise.
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Pretty steady now. Radar seems to show a wobble to the west the last few frames, puts it back on course to go straight over Perry.
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Valdosta GA, Augusta GA, and Colombia SC could all get hurricane force gusts.
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18z GFS is about half a county west of 12z. The eye still goes straight over Perry more or less.
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Hmon has been consistent with the landfall intensity, and it might end up being fairly accurate.
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Luckily it only has until 10 or 11pm tops before it gets on land.
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GFS is slower and stronger, but still loves Perry FL just as much as 12z and 18z.
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Agreed the dry air source to the east has been effectively cut off by the band from the south wrapping up the east side of the storm. Any dry air left in the core is being mixed out by the minute.
